Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.9% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,968 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FiveThirtyEight’s models are heavily used in making NBA and soccer futures picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Our NHL picks are based on Gelo, our own model.
Just the one market today. We’ve got cushion if we want to place another NHL or NBA hedge, but neither does much for us right now. We’re still set to profit in both those portfolios on the year, and we don’t see any value in the Panthers or Nuggets at their current odds. We’ll let things ride, knowing we’re likely about to take a little hit on the Nuggets which will likelier than not be made up for by the Knights.
On single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 42–30, we’re up 6.14 units, we’re up 9% (the average line on our winners has been –116). April was great, May was bad, June has been good so far, as we’ve won our last three.
Seattle @ Anaheim
This line seems to be a reaction to Bryan Woo’s debut, in which the 23-year-old was chased last Saturday after allowing six runs in two innings.
Woo didn’t pitch as badly as the result suggests. There was hard contact, but there were also a lot of strikeouts—four of them—and he didn’t allow a fly ball, let alone a home run. When you aren’t allowing home runs, a .778 BABIP is a weird outing, one that stands out for the guy because it was his first but would otherwise go down as an oddity.
We don’t think Woo’s great. He’s been strong at AA this year, but he’s not who Mariners want to lean on. We do think Woo’s undervalued.
Pick: Seattle to win +114. Low confidence. (Woo and Sandoval must start.)
