Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,733 published picks, not including pending futures. 2% doesn’t sound amazing, but relative to what else you get on the internet?
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
We have a future again today, for which the odds come from Bovada due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus.
World Series
Yes, quadruple unit here. This gets us to 24 units down on the World Series, with a total payout of 38 units should Houston win and now 25.68 units should Atlanta win. It’s a good value play as the odds stand, with Lance McCullers out for the series, but it’s not an amazing value play overall. Positive, not incredible. Make of that what you will.
Pick: Atlanta to win +113. Low confidence.
Pick: Atlanta to win +113. Low confidence.
Pick: Atlanta to win +113. Low confidence.
Pick: Atlanta to win +113. Low confidence.
