Editor’s Note: For almost two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of greatness (the Nationals winning the World Series last year, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the second two months last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 923 published picks, not including futures. And while 6% might not be a great annual return on overall investments, if you strategize well with timing, you can turn daily 6%’s into a whole lot more than 6% over the course of a year.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Data and predictions from FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Data from Baseball Savant and ESPN is also often used.
Well, we’ve got an outbreak. I estimated last week that the probability of one team suffering a severe outbreak but being the only team to suffer one was roughly one percent, making the further assumption that if two teams had roster-neutering case levels, the MLB would call it quits on the season. These assumptions and estimates are being tested.
It does seem that the MLB’s testing process is an inadequate means to preventing outbreaks. The idea behind rapid testing is to catch cases early, and while a two-day lag isn’t enormous, it’s still a significant lag, and my impression is that it’s a big enough lag to in some cases allow some spread before the infected person can be quarantined.
We’ll see how the league reacts. At this point, only the Marlins have a confirmed substantial outbreak, but that could soon change. The Phillies are the next-closest to be watched, having spent the weekend playing Miami, and it’s not like the virus is entirely absent from other teams—it may just be a few days before, say, the Reds have an outbreak.
The MLB can change course on the fly and beef up testing. It wouldn’t be easy, and it’s possible the organization lacks the competence to do it successfully, but it’s a possibility. It’s also possible they’ll get lucky. In the meantime, though, we seem to be looking at a delay of at least a couple days for the Marlins, probably the same for the Phillies, and potentially the same by extension for the Orioles and Yankees.
We knew it could get chaotic when this all started, but there’s a difference between recognizing that possibility and being prepared for it. Right now, we just don’t know what’s going to happen. And that’s by definition an uncertain place to be.
Here’s a bet, with recognition that the game might not be played:
Anaheim @ Oakland
In a shortened season, every series matters more, and a four-game set between the two teams most likely to finish second in the AL West and earn that playoff spot becomes of grand importance, even if it’s just the first series of the season.
Provided that the season does finish, today’s a big opportunity for the A’s to build a two-game lead over their opposition as August approaches. With regard to bullpen usage, it’s fair to expect them to treat it as such. This is close to a tossup, but the better team’s playing at home.
Pick: Oakland -1.5 (+160). Low confidence.
