Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -3% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,775 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
One last college basketball pick for the season, and it’s nothing large. Just a little bit on the spread tonight. As a programming note: We’ll be off tomorrow, then back on Wednesday to start building that MLB futures portfolio we think will get us back profitable all-time.
Kansas vs. North Carolina
Kansas is just the better team here, and while their victory over Villanova was certainly injury-aided, David McCormack might benefit from Armando Bacot’s ankle sprain down low tonight.
Something that’s been forgotten as this tournament’s gone along is how mediocre of a team Duke was this year, relative to the hype they received. North Carolina didn’t just beat the national championship favorite. North Carolina just beat the 8th-best team in the country, per KenPom, a team who only played one other top-ten KenPom team in the post-Thanksgiving portion of the season. KenPom isn’t everything, but it tells a lot of the story, and the best it ever thought Duke was this year was fifth-best.
Yes, North Carolina is a good team. They’re a much better team than we thought they were entering the tournament, and a much better team than they were a month and a half ago. But the boost they’re receiving coming off of Saturday night, impressive as Saturday night was, is misguided. Kansas is polished, healthy, and in another class from where the ACC was this year. They shouldn’t roll tonight, but it would be a significant upset if UNC won.
Pick: Kansas -4 (-115). Low confidence.
