Editor’s Note: For about two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ NLCS comeback, the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,247 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.2% might not be enormous, it’s positive over a big sample size. For what it’s worth.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Bill Connelly’s SP+ is heavily used in making College Football picks. Ken Pomeroy’s KenPom is heavily used in making College Basketball picks.
Cal State-Fullerton @ San Diego
Cal State-Fullerton finally gets on the court, after San Diego finally got on the court Wednesday. It’s odd to see a line tilted towards the team that hasn’t played in one of these, but it’s possible one or both of two things have dragged this as far towards Fullerton as it is:
The first is that UCLA pulled away from San Diego in garbage time on Wednesday, stretching what had been an 18-point gap into a 27-point victory over the game’s final three minutes.
The second is that San Diego isn’t expected to be good within the WCC, which is less damning than usual because the middle and back of the WCC are stronger than usual.
Overall, it’s hard to find enough to like about Fullerton to not believe KenPom on this and take the Toreros.
Pick: San Diego -8.5 (-110). Low confidence.
