Before we begin, four things:
- Yes, this is a little late. Some of these games have started. My bad on that one. Was trying to figure out when the Iditarod starts (think I got it, that’s the next post).
- I may have missed a few games. If I did, assume the worst. Assume it was a slight towards whichever teams I ignored, and that I hate those teams and am attempting to sway the NIT Selection Committee towards omitting them.
- Here’s the latest NIT Bracketology.
- More importantly at this stage, here’s the latest College Basketball Probabilities.
Now, the games:
Lose and They’re In (or at least probably in, @Utah State and @ETSU)
East Tennessee State vs. VMI (12:00 PM Eastern)
San Diego State vs. Utah State (5:30 PM Eastern)
North Dakota State vs. Denver (7:00 PM Eastern)
Maine @ Vermont (7:00 PM Eastern)
Belmont vs. Murray State (8:00 PM Eastern)
ETSU, NDSU, Vermont, and Belmont could each wrap up an automatic bid today. For ETSU, there’s some doubt about whether they’d end up in the field (could get conscripted into the bad tournament), but that’s a matter for another time, and given that they’re already up twelve at the half, it’s not worth worrying too much about. Similarly, Vermont and NDSU are favored by large margins, so those are more “hey, keep an eye on the score” games than games to watch.
Murray State/Belmont, on the other hand, is a big one. The Bruins are looking to make the NIT in Casey Alexander’s first year at the helm, and some are already calling him Mr. NIT in anticipation of another strong run with a private school in Nashville (we eagerly await Alexander taking Vanderbilt to the NIT Championship in 2021). But the first step is losing to Murray State tonight, and that could prove a step too large. Time will tell.
For Utah State, a loss is probably enough to keep them in the field. A win officially takes them out of it, but yeah—loss should be enough. Unless it’s really close and the other committee gets a bit hot and bothered by it. Ugh. I hate it when that committee gets hot and bothered.
Staying Alive?
Georgia @ LSU (2:00 PM Eastern)
California @ Oregon State (4:30 PM Eastern)
Oklahoma @ TCU (6:00 PM Eastern)
Butler @ Xavier (8:30 PM Eastern)
Stanford @ Oregon (11:00 PM Eastern)
Georgia, Oregon State, and TCU can all keep their NIT hopes in the forefront of the mind with wins. LSU, Oklahoma, Xavier, and Stanford can keep theirs healthy with losses.
Opportunity Knocks
Villanova @ Georgetown (12:00 PM Eastern)
Marquette @ St. John’s (12:00 PM Eastern)
Virginia Tech @ Notre Dame (2:00 PM Eastern)
Colorado @ Utah (2:30 PM Eastern)
Syracuse @ Miami (4:00 PM Eastern)
None of these teams are where they’d like to be. Georgetown and St. John’s are struggling to stay above .500. Notre Dame and Syracuse are battling it out on the bubble. Utah’s just trying to get into the race.
For each, the opportunities are there to make strides today. For four of them, winning would do the trick, but Notre Dame probably needs to rough Virginia Tech up a little to prove they’ve got what it takes, especially with the bubble potentially tonight in scenarios in which Belmont loses.
Opportunity Knocks, but on the Back Door
Washington State @ Arizona State (6:30 PM Eastern)
Temple @ Cincinnati (8:00 PM Eastern)
Arizona State and Cincinnati are both very much in the top seed mix. Bad losses today could prove each is for real.
Climb the Seed List? Or Spell One’s Own Doom?
Auburn @ Tennessee (12:00 PM Eastern)
South Carolina @ Vanderbilt (12:30 PM Eastern)
Alabama @ Missouri (2:30 PM Eastern)
Mississippi @ Mississippi State (6:30 PM Eastern)
Rhode Island @ UMass (7:00 PM Eastern)
St. Bonaventure @ Saint Louis (8:00 PM Eastern)
Tennessee, South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi State, Rhode Island, and Saint Louis all stand in strong positions in the NIT field, as currently projected. For each, a win is expected today, so our model’s pricing that in, to an extent. The logic, then, says that victories today should help them climb. And victories would, indeed, help them climb. The question is whether they’d help them climb too far?
Better Not Do It
Kansas @ Texas Tech (2:00 PM Eastern)
Arkansas @ Texas A&M (4:30 PM Eastern)
Furman vs. Wofford (6:00 PM Eastern)
The temptation is there for Texas Tech and Arkansas. It’s instinct. But for both—especially Texas Tech—a victory today could be the end of NIT hopes.
As for Furman, a loss to Wofford is not the best idea. Caution: Some Bubbles May Be Closer Than They Appear (oof that was corny).
Games of the Day
Wisconsin @ Indiana (12:00 PM Eastern)
Rutgers @ Purdue (2:00 PM Eastern)
UCLA @ USC (3:15 PM Eastern)
Oklahoma State @ Texas (4:00 PM Eastern)
Wow. What a day.
In Assembly Hall right now, Indiana’s trying to keep its NIT hopes alive while competing with a raucous home crowd that just does not seem to get it, judging by the atmosphere emanating from my television. Really thought we had Assembly Hall trained, but old habits die hard, I suppose.
When that’s complete, it’s time for a big one up the road in West Lafayette (don’t try to drive between the two games—you won’t make it in time). Rutgers and Purdue could each use a dud, and as each has shown many times this year, they’re certainly capable of delivering it. We’ll see which pulls it off.
Out west, UCLA’s trying to jockey itself into a shot at an improbable NIT automatic bid, but it’s fighting a narrative that says it’s too good to play in the NIT, as though November and December didn’t happen. Meanwhile, USC’s just trying to stay alive with a loss. Talk about a game with layers.
Finally, NITexas. And NITOklahoma State too, but we don’t actually say that like we actually say NITexas. The Longhorns are trying to both make the NIT and save Shaka Smart’s job. It’s possible only one of those is attainable. On the other side, Oklahoma State would really like a victory to make themselves a bit more comfortable there in the middle of the bracket (or to climb up into a three-seed). The stakes have rarely been higher.
