There was a lot going on in the ninth inning last night in Queens. There is still a lot going on. The ninth inning hasn’t ended yet. It will not end until Monday, if it ever ends.
Last night, while the Cubs approached the conclusion of their third straight loss down in Atlanta, Mets reliever Grant Hartwig ascended the mound at Citi Field to try to finish off the Marlins, a development which would have done little for the Mets but would have kept the Marlins only tied for the final National League playoff spot. Hartwig was entering his second inning of work—he’d hit Jon Berti with a pitch to begin the eighth but survived the ensuing jam—and with rain falling down, a reasonable assumption is that the game was his until he got into trouble.
He got into a little bit of trouble.
Bryan De La Cruz led off the ninth with a single, and after Hartwig struck out Garrett Hampson, Buck Showalter brought recent Cubs lefty Anthony Kay in to pitch to Jazz Chisholm Jr. Six pitches later, the game was tied, a Kay wild pitch moving De La Cruz to second before Chisholm doubled him home. The next batter, Yuli Gurriel, singled, and Chisholm scored, and the Marlins were suddenly five outs away from a win that would have, considering tiebreakers, effectively put them a game and a half up on the Cubs with only three left to play.
The win has not yet come.
Kay got one more out, but then Showalter went to the bullpen in favor of Reed Garrett, and after Garrett yielded a Berti single, the umpires said enough was enough. The tarp came on, and the ensuing rain delay lasted three hours only for the game to be officially suspended as yesterday turned into today.
It’s a little unclear if the game will actually resume on Monday. One assumption is that if the Marlins don’t need the win—if they’d still be in playoff position, even with a loss—Major League Baseball will send everyone home on Sunday. Under some approaches, the result could be reverted to where it stood at the end of the eighth inning, though it’s unclear to me how this is affected by MLB’s shifted approach to suspended games. There is a scenario, though, where the Cubs or the Reds takes a half-game lead over Miami this weekend and Miami has to go back to New York on Monday afternoon, trying to preserve a one-run lead over the bottom of the ninth inning to punch their playoff ticket.
Sounds pretty fun, to be honest.
Here’s what else baseball’s been up to this week, and what’s in the lineup for the weekend ahead:
The Stars
Prior to his game-extending single, Berti was already having a great week. The guy doubled and tripled on Tuesday, and on Wednesday, he homered before singling during a different ninth-inning rally which ended with a Marlins win.
Not having a great week were the Seattle Mariners, but J.P. Crawford came through last night to at least patch one hole in the boat, doubling home the tying and winning runs off Jonathan Hernández with two outs in the bottom of the ninth. The win gave the Mariners their first victory in this combined seven-game series with the Rangers, leaving them only one game back of Houston and two back of Toronto, one of whom they’ll need to pull even with this weekend to earn playoff admission.
Speaking of Toronto, they got a great outing from Chris Bassitt, and it also happened last night. Having lost their first two against the Yankees, the Blue Jays were entering risky territory, but Bassitt K’d twelve, and he only walked one, and he didn’t allow a run while working through nearly eight full innings in the 6–0 victory. With the final out he recorded, Bassitt reached an even 200 innings on the year, joining Logan Webb, Gerrit Cole, and Zac Gallen as pitchers who’ve hit that mark in 2023. Not bad company to keep.
The Series
In the American League:
- The Astros took two of three from the Mariners from Monday through Wednesday, pulling ahead by one game in the loss column. That’s key, as the Astros don’t hold the tiebreaker.
- Toronto lost those two of three to the Yankees, but they’re still two games up on the Mariners, though they also don’t hold that tiebreaker.
- The Rangers won two of three in Anaheim, pulling closer and closer to clinching a playoff berth.
- Baltimore swept a two-game set over the Nationals, setting them up to clinch the AL East last night with a win over the Red Sox.
- The Rays and Twins are each locked into their place in the AL seed list, getting ready for October and jockeying for hypothetical World Series home field advantage. The Rays swept two in Boston. The Twins won two of three over the A’s.
On the NL side:
- Prior to the rain delay, the Mets–Marlins series was tied at one win apiece, which means it’s still tied at one win apiece, though the Marlins do have a ninth-inning lead.
- The Cubs were swept in Atlanta, falling back out of playoff position while losing the three games by a combined four runs. The Braves locked up home field advantage throughout the playoffs with the wins.
- Arizona won two of three over the White Sox in Chicago, staying two ahead of the Cubs in the loss column. The Diamondbacks could clinch a playoff berth as soon as tonight.
- The Reds split their pair in Cleveland, remaining at least one loss back of the Cubs and Marlins but possibly two behind Miami.
- Milwaukee finally clinched the NL Central, taking two of three from the Cardinals. They’re now in the same boat as the Rays, Twins, and Dodgers, who split a four-game series in Colorado.
The Situation
Five playoff spots remain up for grabs, and eight teams are in realistic contention for them (the Padres have yet to be technically eliminated, but they would need to win out, the Marlins would need to lose out—including the tiebreaker, the Cubs would need to lose out, and the Reds would need to lose at least two of three).
In the American League, the AL West remains unsettled, and the Rangers could theoretically still lose their playoff berth. The standings look as follows:
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2. Texas: 89–70
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5. Toronto: 88–71
6. Houston: 87–72
7. Seattle: 86–73
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(Toronto cannot win the AL West, and so can only top out at the 5-seed.)
The tiebreakers here go: Seattle over Houston, Toronto over Houston, Seattle over Toronto, Texas over Seattle, Texas over Toronto, Houston over Texas. If there’s a four-way tie, the Blue Jays are the odd man out. Three-way ties work as follows:
- Astros, Mariners, Rangers tie: Rangers out.
- Blue Jays, Mariners, Rangers tie: Blue Jays out.
- Astros, Blue Jays, Mariners tie: Astros out.
So, this is what each team needs to do to secure a playoff berth, independent of what everyone else does:
- Texas: Win once.
- Toronto: Win twice.
- Houston: Win three times.
- Seattle: (Do not control their fate.)
Realistically, the Astros, Blue Jays, and Rangers will get a little help elsewhere, but the Mariners holding so many tiebreakers does add some complexity. FanGraphs has Seattle at a 1-in-3 likelihood of sneaking in. The Mariners host the Rangers for three more games. The Astros play their final three in Arizona. The Blue Jays host the Rays for three. Arizona may be only playing for seeding by tomorrow. The Rays are already locked into their seed.
In the National League, it’s all happening around the Wild Card, where the standings look like this:
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5. Arizona: 84–75
6. Miami: 82–76
7. Chicago: 82–77
8. Cincinnati: 81–78
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Here, the tiebreakers go: Miami over everybody, Cincinnati over Chicago and Arizona, Arizona over Chicago, Chicago over nobody. It’s a straight line. If there’s a four-way tie, the Marlins and Reds make the field. Three-way ties work according to this order as well, so long as the Padres don’t improbably become involved.
Where this leaves us is that only the Diamondbacks and Marlins control their fate. The Diamondbacks could clinch a playoff spot tonight, either by winning or seeing the Cubs lose. The Marlins could clinch as soon as tomorrow, with their magic number at three against the Cubs and two against the Reds.
Arizona, as mentioned, hosts the Astros. The Marlins flew to Pittsburgh late last night, once the game in Queens was officially suspended. The Cubs are in Milwaukee, playing a Brewers team locked into their seeding and nearly locked up with all potential home-field status. Cincinnati is in St. Louis, playing a Cardinals team just trying to get to 70 wins.
The Weekend’s Best Games
This is very scenario-dependent, but from what we know right now, tonight’s matchup between Zac Gallen and J.P. France is probably the best of the evening. Tomorrow, it’s currently looking like it’ll be Luis Castillo opposite Jon Gray in Seattle, though official probables are still not listed for that game. Sunday, Justin Steele pitches against Adrian Houser in Milwaukee, and if the Cubs have at least held even with the Marlins to that point, there will be potential stakes.
Who’s Hot
The Padres are still baseball’s best team in the month of September. Since August 1st, it’s still the Dodgers. The worst playoff contender over September has been the Giants, who are 8–17 on the month. The Giants—along with three of the Diamondbacks, Cubs, Mets, Padres, and Marlins—are one of six NL teams to reach 75% playoff probability, per FanGraphs, and not make this year’s playoff field. It’s been a rollercoaster season.
Among individuals, Xander Bogaerts is still best in baseball in September by fWAR, with TJ Friedl, Matt Olson, Seiya Suzuki, and Juan Soto next in line. Since August 1st, it’s still Mookie Betts. In Win Probability Added, Corbin Carroll leads the majors on the month, which presumably means he’s also leading in Championship Probability Added, given the stakes accompanying Arizona’s games.
On the mound, Gerrit Cole is right there with Friedl, Olson, Suzuki, and Soto in his production, having now thrown 35 innings across five September starts while allowing only four earned runs. His FIP on the month is 1.57. Since August 1st, Tarik Skubal is now tied with Cole Ragans despite making one fewer start. Those two will not be meeting in the playoffs.
Closing Thoughts
We’ll have detailed tiebreaker information up tomorrow and Sunday if that’s what it seems the situation warrants. I miss the tiebreaker games, but it’s worth remembering we wouldn’t be looking at as many possibilities for those if the playoff format didn’t expand, and that was part of the deal.
As we’ve been saying the last couple weeks, there’s very little correlation between a team’s results in one series and their results the next. This is baseball, and even with the biggest motivation disparity and the biggest disparity in talent, anything really can happen. Aside from the Padres, nobody mathematically alive is practically out of this thing.
