The top of the college football landscape is set in stone, moving at the speed of tectonic plates, a slow, grinding collision which seems to only push both sides higher in the air. Georgia, Alabama, Ohio State, and Michigan are the four best teams in the country, with the only question the order of those last two. Oklahoma and Oklahoma State appear to be the top of the Big 12. Utah appears to be the top of the Pac-12, with USC challenging but still unknowable. Clemson is the top of the ACC, but as with Mont Blanc, were it set against Everest, perspective changes appearances.
In 78% of our model’s latest 10,000 simulations, at least three of the four playoff spots go to some combination of these nine teams. In 31%, all four belong to these four. This is a lot, but it leaves plenty of space for a surprise. We’ll look at who the surprises could be, league-by-league, and what they showed us this weekend. But first, let’s talk quickly about those nine. They are, after all, the focus.
Georgia
Georgia walloped South Carolina. Walloped them. Some of this is that South Carolina is a perennial SEC bottomfeeder, and while that’s better than being an ACC bottomfeeder, this was no marquee opponent for the Dawgs. Some of it too, though, was that Georgia looks like it could be the greatest college football team in history, at least in the absolute sense if not in the context of its season.
Alabama
The Crimson Tide did the expected, bouncing back from a win-that-felt-like-a-loss at Texas to put the hurt on Louisiana-Monroe (who, after going to both Austin and Tuscaloosa, might be leading the buy game revenue race at this early stage). Not a lot to see here. The same questions—those about the offense’s potency, especially on the road—remain.
Ohio State
A thing about Ohio State is that we don’t know how good their defense is. It was rather bad last year. It looked much better against Notre Dame, but then we learned that Notre Dame’s offense lacks a single wide receiver, despite often playing with three on the field. The Buckeyes scored 77 against Toledo, which is impressive, but they also let Toledo gain 8.0 yards per pass attempt and touch the endzone thrice. The questions continue.
Michigan
Michigan has yet to play anyone respectable, but their average final score rounds to 55-6, and that’s good no matter who you play, reflecting the capacity to dominate the inferior on both sides of the ball, which is something each legitimate contender should be able to do. If forced to bet right now, I’d personally take Michigan against Ohio State on a neutral field, but it’s admittedly close between the two. Movelor has them within a point of each other, and within roughly two and a half points of Alabama. It has Georgia roughly a touchdown better than that trio.
Oklahoma
The most impressive team of the weekend, even if their win wasn’t a quality one, was Oklahoma. A free and easy 49-14 win in Lincoln is not what it used to be, but it’s not nothing, and it was enough to reestablish that this probably the best team in the Big 12, having answered a few offensive questions that lingered from quieter margins the first two weeks.
Oklahoma State
The Pokes played Arkansas-Pine Bluff. Hard to learn much from a game like that. Movelor is high on Mike Gundy’s team.
Clemson
Clemson went into the half against Louisiana Tech leading just 13-6 at home, and while they turned it on in the third quarter, some garbage time defensive lapses kept it a 28-point game. This team ended last year good but not great, then lost both its coordinators and didn’t enjoy some sort of huge jump in recruiting. We’ve seen nothing so far to indicate that the program is bouncing back, as the narrative would imply. But, the ACC has just one team ranked better than 22nd in Movelor. Again, perspective matters. (To be fair on this, Clemson is two tenths of a point away in Movelor from jumping four separate teams, and a blowout at Wake this weekend could put them all the way up at sixth, conceivably.)
Utah
Utah’s loss at Florida looks a little worse after Florida nearly lost to USF, and the Pac-12 favorites have no margin for error in the playoff race. The Pac-12 is not well-respected enough for an 11-2 league champion to get consideration without a lot of chaos, and this team winning ten more in a row is highly improbable.
USC
Finally, the Trojans. Movelor’s low on these guys, the media’s high on these guys, betting markets are somewhere in between. They’ve looked solid so far, but not overwhelming. I personally have a hard time believing in them this year, but I say a lot of things, so I’m often wrong. Betting markets seem to have them a little behind Utah, which I’d guess puts them near Clemson in quality, ahead of the non-Utah Pac-12 but with a lot of challenges ahead, most notably a visit to Salt Lake City on October 15th.
**
Ok, those are the main nine. Who on the edges could sneak in?
Big Ten: Penn State (12.7% playoff probability), Minnesota (10.1%), Wisconsin (1.2%)
Penn State did what Utah will likely wish it had done come December: It went into SEC country and smacked around a medium-quality team. With Michigan State falling at Washington, the Nittany Lions are now the clear third wheel in the Big Ten East, quite possibly a top ten team who gets Ohio State at home. There are only two games on this team’s remaining schedule where they’re expected to be underdogs. Find a way to win one, and they’ll have their hat in the ring for the division and a lovely feather in their cap should they finish 11-1.
Minnesota did what Minnesota’s done a lot these last two years and took care of business, one among many to tear Colorado down to its studs. The Gophers lost Chris Autman-Bell for the season ahead of a tricky trip to East Lansing, but even with a loss there, they’ll be a Big Ten West contender, and winning the Big Ten West gets you a chance, possibly even if you enter the Big Ten Championship Game at 10-2. Beat the Spartans? Minnesota might be up near Oklahoma in the table.
Finally, Wisconsin. Washington State isn’t good. We shouldn’t say that they are. But they aren’t terrible, and Wisconsin, like Minnesota, has a pretty good shot to win the Big Ten West. Unlike their northern neighbors, they need just about everything to go right should they hope to make the playoff, instead of merely almost everything, but the upside of their inconsistency is that they’re capable of a lot, which is a good thing to be able to say about yourself heading into Columbus. Easy win for the Badgers over NMSU this weekend. Good test for Ohio State’s defense ahead.
Elsewhere in the Big Ten, the Michigan State loss was a little surprising but not a stunner, and behind those six teams, it’s hard to see anybody else worth watching at the moment. Maryland and Rutgers are both 3-0, but neither has played a game we’ve noticed while it’s happening.
ACC: NC State (9.9%), Pittsburgh (3.7%), Wake Forest (3.4%), Florida State (2.7%), UNC (2.7%), Miami (1.7%)
Movelor grades NC State as the 22nd-best team in the country. Our model gives the Wolfpack the tenth-best chance of making the playoff. Movelor grades Pitt as the 24th-best. Our model gives the Panthers the 16th-best playoff chance. Wake Forest? 34th-best team, 17th-best chance. FSU? 36th-best team, 20th-best chance. UNC? 38th-best team, 21st-best chance. Miami? Here it evens out a little. 32nd-best team, 26th-best chance.
The ACC gets the power conference boost, and it might be better than the Pac-12 (to emphasize: might), but it has a lot of dead weight which the committee will probably not view as dead weight. Win this league, and you’ve got a playoff shot, and a lot of teams have a decent enough chance of winning this league.
Since Clemson, though probably not great, is the team to beat over here, it’s worth looking at who plays them, and where. NC State has to go to Clemson on October 1st. Pitt does not have the Tigers on their schedule. Wake hosts them this Saturday. FSU hosts them on October 15th. UNC does not have the Tigers on their schedule. Miami goes to Clemson on November 19th.
For some of these teams, then—Pitt and UNC—this is about path. Pitt’s loss to Tennessee was respectable. UNC has dodged a loss so far. For the others, it’s about the feasibility of beating Clemson. NC State’s win over Texas Tech wasn’t nothing, but it was only a two-touchdown win and the game was in Raleigh. Pitt waited until the fourth quarter to pull away from Western Michigan. Wake Forest nearly fell to Liberty at home. UNC was mercifully idle after three weeks of epitomizing the phrase “hot mess.” Miami didn’t cross the goal line once in College Station. The league’s weekend highlight was Syracuse triumphing over Purdue in one of those games somebody technically had to lose. They and Duke are, alongside the teams listed above minus Pitt, the other remaining ACC undefeateds. At this point, they might be worth watching. (Syracuse? 48th-best team in the nation. 32nd-best playoff shot.)
SEC: Tennessee (6.9%), Mississippi (6.2%), Kentucky (4.6%), Arkansas (2.5%)
Arkansas nearly lost to Missouri State, and their schedule not only features the entire SEC West but includes a trip to Provo to play probably-not-good but certainly competitive BYU. It’s a tough path for the Hogs.
For Mississippi, on the other hand, things look as close to manageable as you could ask them to be in this league. They get Alabama and Kentucky at home. They visit College Station and Fayetteville. They don’t have to play Georgia. The significance of this? If things get really wild, there are some 10-2 paths for Lane Kiffin & Co. The schedule is hard, but it’s hard in the right way, giving them opportunities to stun while also likely setting them up for a very strong two-loss résumé should things get to that point. Clean shutout win in Atlanta against Georgia Tech. Much easier time than Clemson had against those guys.
Kentucky had trouble scoring this weekend, managing only 31 against Youngstown State, though they did shut the Penguins out. Their win at Florida carries less water than it did three days ago, too, though crucially, the game wasn’t a loss for the Gators, which is going to be worth quite a bit if they can hang around the top 25’s periphery over the next couple months. The big advantage for Kentucky is that they get Georgia at home, and that they don’t have to play Alabama, Arkansas, or Texas A&M in their crossover games. They’ve already checked off a road conference opponent, and they won that game. The toughest non-Georgia test left? A trip to Knoxville.
Tennessee’s parallel to Penn State in this situation. They have to play two of the nation’s four probably-best teams, but they do get Alabama at home. Their win over Akron was decisive, as you’d expect it to be, and thanks to that trip to Pittsburgh there’s a 20.9% chance they show up on December 4th with a road win in their pocket against a Power Five champion. Like Kentucky, Mississippi, and probably Arkansas: Good team.
Texas A&M is also solid, but that home loss to Appalachian State is a killer, and will likely continue to be, as the Mountaineers did not look good at all against Troy, needing a Hail Mary to escape. LSU stopped Mississippi State from getting to 3-0, so we won’t be paying attention to them either. These are the four, right now, in the SEC. Behind Georgia and Alabama, we mean. Way behind Georgia and Alabama.
Big 12: Iowa State (5.2%), Baylor (2.4%), Texas (1.9%)
Is this the Big 12’s second tier? We’re still figuring that out. Iowa State trounced Ohio, as one would hope. Baylor dealt calmly with Texas State. Texas pulled away emphatically from UTSA with the backup Longhorn quarterback under center.
One thing that our model isn’t accounting for right now is the possibility of the Kelly Bryant Rule applying to Texas from the Alabama game. That game was close enough that if Quinn Ewers comes back and looks good, the committee may forgive a lot of the loss. Texas needs to be in the playoff picture for that to become relevant, but why shouldn’t they get to the playoff picture? Aside from a trip to Stillwater, they play every other Big 12 team we’ve mentioned within the state of Texas. The Longhorns are not “back,” but they’re in the mix.
On the scheduling side, Iowa State could effectively knock Baylor out this Saturday in Ames, with the Bears already holding the loss from their visit to BYU and yet to visit Norman and Austin. The Cyclones, meanwhile, get Oklahoma at home but have to go south to play both Oklahoma State and Texas, in addition to the potential game in Arlington against the Big 12’s other best team if they do finish in the top two, something that’s a challenge for all five of the teams we’ve mentioned in here.
The remaining Big 12 undefeateds, besides the Oklahomas and Iowa State, are TCU and Kansas. TCU’s already taken one of their idle weeks, not starting conference play until October 1st, but going over to SMU on Saturday. We’re not out on the Frogs yet, but there’s no reason to be in on them. Frankly, Kansas has been more impressive, beating both West Virginia and now Houston on the road. The Jayhawk offense looks legitimately good. The defense is porous, but the offense is scoring points. Lance Leipold is making progress in Lawrence, and no one should be surprised from here if they show up in Norman in mid-October with a 5-1 record.
Notably no longer undefeated is Kansas State, who was a great sleeper on paper but mustered only ten points against Tulane at home. Tulane could turn out to be pretty good, but odds are that will still hurt. That will still really hurt. Tough task ahead of Chris Klieman to get the focus turned around.
One last Big 12 note, before we move to the Pac-12: The probabilities on these three and Oklahoma may be low, if other systems are more correct about Oklahoma State than Movelor is. Movelor really likes Oklahoma State. It might be right, but others we respect aren’t seeing it.
Pac-12: Oregon (3.3%), Oregon State (2.9%), Washington State (1.9%), UCLA (1.2%), Washington (1.2%)
A corresponding Pac-12 note, to go with that Big 12 one: Movelor still views USC as only the 43rd-best team in the country. If this is wrong, it inflates every other Pac-12 school’s playoff probability.
Oregon got a big confidence boost, even if it turns out that BYU isn’t much good (which is possible, and yes, also thereby possible that Baylor’s not much good). Oregon State’s defense struggled again against Montana State, hurting on the ground, but they catch USC at a good time, and they catch them at home. Washington State is now 3-0, has a win at a Big Ten sleeper, rolled through Colorado State (Air Force really missed its chance to be Colorado’s premier college football team), and does have to go to Los Angeles to play Southern Cal but gets Oregon, Utah, and Washington all at home. And on the topic of Washington? Movelor doesn’t buy the hype yet—they’re one spot behind USC in the lineup—but that was a nice win over the Spartans, and this team doesn’t play either of USC and Utah in the regular season. They also get Oregon State at home, making trips to Eugene and Pullman their biggest concerns. That is a great, great path.
UCLA also shows up on this list, and the Bruins nearly lost to South Alabama but they, like Washington, enjoy a favorable path. Though they did draw Utah and USC, they drew each at home, and they play Washington at home as well, making Oregon their biggest road game. You want to beat South Alabama by more, but these guys are 3-0 and the conference is open. Sue me.
Others: (Vacant)
They’re all already gone. Cincinnati’s schedule is too easy the rest of the way. BYU’s is too hard, with a loss already in the pocket. Notre Dame has two losses, Air Force dropped the ball bigtime against Wyoming, Appalachian State has that loss to UNC and also kind of looks like shit (sorry guys, but this is more respectful than treating you like a team of children), and we’re left with only Tulane, Coastal Carolina, and James Madison as our undefeateds outside the formal Power Five. Movelor ranks Tulane 68th. It ranks Coastal Carolina 69th, and the Chanticleers lack any Power Five opposition. It ranks JMU 35th, but JMU’s too early in the FBS transition to be playoff-eligible. Or even Sun Belt Championship eligible, which further hurts Coastal Carolina, albeit very marginally on an already marginal possibility.
**
What does all that mean, consolidated? We have seven teams—the SEC pair, the Big Ten pair, the Oklahoma pair, and Clemson—showing up as 13% likely or likelier in our model to make the playoff. We have two Pac-12 teams—Utah and USC—who are below that threshold but certainly squads to watch. We then have 21 “sleepers,” teams between one-in-100 likely and one-in-eight likely to find their way in. They range from the expected, those like Penn State who’ve long knocked on the door, to the mildly baffling, like UCLA. Others may rise into this sphere, but more will fall out than join it. This is the periphery right now. These are the unusual suspects.
