We’re less than two weeks from the College Football Playoff field’s unveiling, and we have questions. Some of those questions are unanswerable, subject to the whims of long snaps and defensive schematics and all sorts of other things over the couple dozen playoff-relevant games to come. Some of those questions are answerable, but won’t be answered by tonight’s rankings: We’re not going to get a good idea of how the committee will view the eventual 11-1 Ohio State or Michigan this evening, or a hypothetical 12-1 TCU, because Ohio State and Michigan and TCU currently enjoy a large gap at their collective tail before we get to whoever’s ranked fifth. Some of those questions, though, will be answered. Or at least hinted at.
Our model expects tonight’s rankings to come in as follows, with the numeric scale in the parentheses representing where each team would fall on a theoretical FBS-wide spectrum from 0.0 to 100.0:
1. Georgia (100.0)
2. Ohio State (97.9)
3. Michigan (93.1)
4. TCU (92.5)
5. USC (85.7)
6. Clemson (84.5)
7. LSU (83.7)
8. Tennessee (83.1)
9. Alabama (83.0)
10. Penn State (80.1)
11. Oregon (79.8)
12. Utah (74.8)
13. Kansas State (73.3)
14. Florida State (70.1)
15. Notre Dame (70.0)
16. Washington (69.3)
17. North Carolina (68.0)
18. Tulane (67.8)
19. Mississippi (67.7)
20. Oregon State (67.0)
21. Texas (65.4)
22. Wake Forest (64.4)
23. UCLA (64.2)
24. Cincinnati (63.7)
25. Mississippi State (63.7)
With that…the questions:
USC vs. LSU vs. Clemson
Last week, LSU was placed sixth, USC lined up seventh, and Clemson was ninth. Since then, USC beat UCLA across town while Clemson and LSU each managed manageable opponents (side note: congratulations to Miami on being equated to UAB). More than that happened, though, and that’s what our model’s taking into account when it flips Clemson and LSU. LSU’s blowout loss to Tennessee was one thing when Tennessee was a playoff candidate whose own only loss came on the road against the top-ranked team in the country. It’s something different when Tennessee just got utterly annihilated by a fine-not-good South Carolina team. Will the committee see it that way? Maybe. These rankings aren’t as much a horse race as the AP Poll was in the BCS days, but they’re definitely sticky. Most likely, I’d guess our model is taught that the committee really does view Clemson’s loss at Notre Dame as a bad one, even with the Irish possibly ranked in the top fifteen.
Where Are USC’s Opponents?
UCLA has now lost back-to-back games, and one was still against Arizona. That hasn’t changed. The Bruins are 8-3 with a win over Utah and not a whole lot else to brag on. They’ll likely stay ranked, but even with that, we’re looking at rankings where USC’s two best wins come against teams ranked twentieth or worse. Not exactly awe-inspiring, though the loss is rather understandable (one point on the road against a well-ranked team), and the committee may give UCLA a little more credit than precedent would suggest, because of the stickiness.
Where Are TCU’s Opponents?
The two potential 12-1 TCU’s—the one who loses to Iowa State and the one who loses to Kansas State or Texas—are tough to guess on, but they’re probably not as out of it as the narrative would suggest. Still, they have the same problem as USC in that their wins just aren’t that exciting (and they share the problem of not usually blowing anybody out, even if their bad opponents haven’t been as bad as those of the Trojans). Kansas State is a better team to have beaten than UCLA or Oregon State, and Texas is a better team to have beaten than UCLA or Oregon State too, but Texas isn’t a better résumé to have beaten, and that could be the Frogs’ downfall.
Alabama vs. Tennessee
Alabama and Tennessee are each clocking in at the fringe of what’s possible when it comes to making the playoff, but there may be scenarios where one gets a call, and which is ranked above the other will be relevant to that. The argument for Tennessee is that they beat Alabama and blew out LSU. The argument for Alabama is…everything else, kind of, but to spell it out, Alabama only lost to Tennessee by a field goal on the road, Alabama’s second loss is way more understandable, Alabama would still be the favorite if the two were to play on a neutral field (or in Knoxville, frankly), and Alabama would especially still be the favorite head-to-head now that Hendon Hooker’s out.
A poorly-kept secret about the committee is that they don’t spend very much time parsing teams outside the sphere of playoff relevancy, which could in this case lead to a simple argument winning. This doesn’t mean Alabama couldn’t then jump Tennessee back if it became relevant again, but it also might. The committee might make a decision quickly, thinking it’s irrelevant, and then decline to change their mind should it become relevant. It’s kind of like the element of replay review where the fallback is to stick with the call on the field.
Does Oregon Have a Chance? Does Utah??
Utah still has an opportunity to win the Pac-12, though they need help from all sorts of characters to get there. More pressingly, Oregon’s close to being the Pac-12 favorite, and as a two-loss power conference champion, that could conceivably get them in the conversation if enough gets wild. The committee really seemed last year like it wanted to reward Oregon for going to Columbus early in the season. It may not want to punish the Ducks for being willing to play Georgia in Atlanta this year. Institutionalism. John Roberts.
How Far Does UNC Fall?
This is more a question for Clemson than UNC at this point—the Tar Heels, despite having a path to being an 11-2 Power Five champion, appear to be thoroughly outside of playoff possibility—but it’s a potentially consequential question. If UNC’s in the top fifteen when they play Clemson, that has an opportunity to move the needle more for the Tigers than if UNC’s unranked. To go back to the TCU/USC question…Clemson has the same problem with lacking impressive wins. Florida State’s doing well, and Wake Forest might sneak back in, but it’s a sparse crew.
What Happens at 25?
One of the reasons we’re so certain that the committee spends a huge share of its time at the top is that teams ranked 21st through 25th are often wild cards. It’s wild enough that it could be a bit, like the time NIT Stu named David Bote the National League Rookie of the Year. It’s not a bit, though, and it could affect things: It could circularly affect the résumés of the top-ranked teams, and it could affect the AAC and Sun Belt championships.
How Do the New Year’s Six Bowls Line Up?
At the moment, the script goes as follows (these are who we expect to be favored in the remaining games):
- Georgia wins out.
- Alabama and Tennessee win this weekend.
- Clemson wins out.
- USC beats Notre Dame, Oregon wins out.
- Penn State wins out.
- TCU beats Iowa State, loses to Kansas State.
- Ohio State beats Michigan, beats Iowa.
- Cincinnati wins out.
That leaves us with the following New Year’s Six…probably?
- Peach Bowl: Georgia (13-0) vs. Michigan (11-1)
- Fiesta Bowl: Ohio State (13-0) vs. Clemson (12-1)
- Rose Bowl: Oregon (11-2) vs. Penn State (10-2)
- Sugar Bowl: Kansas State (10-3) vs. LSU (10-3)
- Orange Bowl: Florida State (9-3) vs. Tennessee or Alabama (10-2)
- Cotton Bowl: TCU (12-1) vs. Cincinnati (11-2)
Lots could change this. And it matters to teams. These bowls are premier bowls. Ask a Penn State fan how they’d feel about maybe getting a Rose Bowl win out of this season. Ask a Florida State fan what it’d feel like to win the Orange Bowl. Ask a Cincinnati fan about a potential Cotton Bowl win against an incoming conference rival.
