The Pac-12 hasn’t put a team in the College Football Playoff in five years. Five playoffs have come and gone, and the Pac-12 has sat each one out.
This is very bad for the Pac-12.
The Big 12 has its own playoff woes. The ACC is close to experiencing some themselves. But as we approach expansion, those woes are likely to be resolved by the numbers game. The Pac-12’s is too, but with one important catch: Pac-12 dissolution remains a real possibility. The Pac-12 might not be a conference at all soon, let alone a power conference.
This is the backdrop as Utah goes to UCLA. This week’s games:
The Big One
Of our playoff contenders—the seven teams with a one-in-ten or better chance of making the field, per our model—only Utah faces a clear and obvious test this weekend. Utah goes to UCLA, UCLA is undefeated and looked quite good against Washington, we and many others believe Utah is far and away the best team in the Pac-12, but it’s hard to beat respectable teams on the road. It’s a dangerous game in Los Angeles, and that season-opening loss back in Gainesville leaves Utah with no margin for error. If UCLA wins, they inherit a lot of playoff expectations (they’re currently the 13th-likeliest playoff team, with a 3.0% chance against Utah’s 24.0%), but they’re not of the quality of Utah. They have some margin for error—they haven’t lost yet—but even factoring that in, Utah is the better contender for the Pac-12, because Utah is the better team. Outside of the Big Ten and SEC, Utah might be the best team in the country. That’s the kind of representative the Pac-12 needs.
The Good Ones
Even with the contenders mostly tasked with taking care of business, there’s plenty of action going down today.
Tennessee—holding a 3.9% playoff chance largely tied to a scenario in which they finish with eleven wins and one loss—is at LSU, viewed by our Movelor system as the 25th-best team in the country. Lose, and the Vols will need two shockers down the line, not just one.
NC State—2.3% playoff-likely, even after last week’s loss—hosts Florida State, who may not be playing for much in the playoff sphere but should be competitive and is trying to climb back up the ladder after a painful fall from prominence.
North Carolina—1.2% playoff-likely thanks to the weakness of the Coastal Division—is at Miami, and if the Tar Heels win, the biggest hurdle left before the ACC Championship will be a trip to Wake Forest, a trip where UNC would probably be an underdog but it would be far from shocking were they to win.
Finally, though TCU and Kansas might sit below the 1.0% line, each is undefeated, and in Kansas’s case that alone is grounds to tune in. On our end, is Movelor being too slow to react to the Jayhawks and Horned Frogs? We doubt it, but the volume surrounding this game’s winner isn’t going to get much quieter.
The Meaningful Ones
There are also, then, games of meaning: Games that shouldn’t move the needle, but might if something goes wrong.
All three playoff-likely teams are in action, with Alabama a large favorite at home against Texas A&M, Georgia a large favorite at home against Auburn, and Ohio State a large favorite on the road against Michigan State. It says something that all of these spreads are north of three possessions. Each of the opponents is near or above the median line of quality for Power Five football, so those are some gigantic spreads. This makes the games a test of strength, a test which Alabama and Georgia need to pass as an insurance policy against losing the SEC.
The three other contenders also play, mostly also as large favorites: Michigan goes to Indiana. Clemson goes to Boston College. Oklahoma State hosts Texas Tech. Of the three, Oklahoma State is the only one betting markets view as in danger, but with that: If the Pokes have a hard time against Texas Tech, it points towards them not being good enough to get through the Big 12 with one loss and a ring, two things they almost definitely need to do to get that playoff nod.
Mississippi, up at 3.9% alongside Tennessee, is one of the first teams in line for contention should a Clemson or Utah or Oklahoma State go down, and they’re up in Nashville playing Vanderbilt. It’s a take-care-of-business game, but with Vanderbilt taking care of business themselves so far, it’s not unfathomable that the Commodores could contend for a bowl bid, making this more than a customary cupcake affair.
Wake Forest is holding onto some playoff dreams, checking in at 2.0% on our ledger. So is Kentucky, down at 1.1%, and Oregon, up at 2.3%. Those three, respectively, host Army, host South Carolina, and go to Arizona. None of the three should be in terrible danger, but Will Levis’s foot seems to have bettors high on the Gamecocks in Lexington, and if any goes down, there will be ripples.
USC, finally, hosts Washington State. It’s another of these where a team in the playoff conversation is facing a solid but manageable opponent, and while our model is very low on the Trojans, pegging them at just 3.5% playoff-likely despite their undefeated record, the narrative is high on these guys, and the narrative does often influence the committee.
The Interesting Ones
Texas and Oklahoma play at the old Cotton Bowl, and as Stu alluded to earlier today in Bevo’s Fake Nuts, the Quinn Ewers factor and the Kelly Bryant Rule mean that if Texas gets close to the playoff picture, the Longhorns will likely receive some sort of boost for the losses suffered in Ewers’s absence. They need to get there first, but they’re favored today, and that’s noteworthy in and of itself.
BYU and Notre Dame play in Las Vegas, and while neither has anything more than the wildest of playoff shots, it’s a good measuring stick for each program, and the result will say a lot about Clemson’s path in particular, with the Tigers poised to go to South Bend in a month.
In eye-popping land, Illinois is favored over Iowa in Champaign, with virtually everyone in the Big Ten West in the thick of that race but especially these two. Maryland, meanwhile, hosts Purdue, and there’s a world in which Michigan is sensational and Maryland causing them problems means Maryland is quite good themselves. That world may even be this one.
Kansas State is one complete disaster against Tulane away from being in Oklahoma State territory, and they’re up in Ames to play an Iowa State team that is reeling, through and through. K-State could get in despite the Tulane loss, but they’d need a lot of help, and they can’t afford a single additional mistake.
Mississippi State hosts Arkansas, and the Bulldogs are surprisingly a two-score favorite over the Hogs, though KJ Jefferson seems to be dealing with a concussion, and I’ve personally yet to see a report saying definitively whether or not he’ll play for the visitors.
In the Sun Belt, undefeated Coastal Carolina is at Louisiana-Monroe and undefeated James Madison is at Arkansas State. Those games aren’t the biggest tests for either, but they provide plenty of intrigue, partially because of how impressive it would be for JMU to finish the year undefeated in its first year at the FBS level.
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Is it the biggest week? No. Or at least, we don’t think so. These ones have a funny way of shaking things up. For now, all eyes on Utah. And if you’ve got eyes to spare, cast them towards Baton Rouge, or Lawrence, or Dallas or Las Vegas or even Raleigh. Unless the shake-ups start. Then, you’ll know what to do.
