This afternoon, the NCAA announced changes to the NIT format, and they are major, but their impact is only medium. Here’s the rundown:
- There are no more automatic bids for regular season conference champions who win their conference tournament.
- There are now two automatic bids for each of basketball’s Power Six conferences. These will be awarded to the top-ranked teams in each of those leagues, by NET, who aren’t conscripted into the NCA* *********t. They do not have to have a .500 overall record.
- Those twelve automatic bids will come with guaranteed first round home games.
What does this mean, in practice? Let’s redo the 2023 NIT selection process and see.
In the 2023 NIT, the following eleven teams received automatic bids:
- Eastern Washington
- UC Irvine
- Hofstra
- Youngstown State
- Yale
- Toledo
- Bradley
- Morehead State
- Southern Miss
- Alcorn State
- Utah Valley
Of those eleven, four—Eastern Washington, Youngstown State, Morehead State, and Alcorn State—would not have made the NIT using the new selection process. Three—Yale, Bradley, and Utah Valley—would have in all likelihood still made the NIT, based on what the selection committee prioritized in terms of résumé. Four—Toledo, Hofstra, Southern Miss, and UC Irvine—would have been on the bubble. We’ll come back to those four.
Had the new NIT format been used on the 2023 NIT, the following twelve teams would have received automatic bids:
- North Carolina
- Clemson
- Oklahoma State
- Texas Tech
- Villanova
- Seton Hall
- Rutgers
- Ohio State
- Oregon
- Colorado
- Florida
- Vanderbilt
Of those twelve, we can assume UNC would have still rejected their NIT invitation, leaving us with eleven New Automatic Bid teams, eleven teams who would receive a home game in addition to their admission to the tournament. Of those eleven, seven—Clemson, Oklahoma State, Rutgers, Oregon, Colorado, Florida, and Vanderbilt—received an opportunity at a first round home game anyway. Two—Villanova and Seton Hall—made the tournament anyway, but would have hosted in this case instead of traveling for their first round game. Two—Texas Tech and Ohio State—did not make the NIT in the old format but would make it in this new one and also host a game. Teams losing a home game? This is skipping ahead, but: Washington State, Cincinnati, UAB, and maybe Sam Houston would have played on the road in the first round rather than having the opportunity to play at home.
So far, we have four teams out and two teams in. But we still had those four from above we said we’d come back to: Toledo, Hofstra, Southern Miss, and UC Irvine.
To be clear: Every team that received an at-large bid to the 2023 NIT would still receive one under the new format. In addition to those already listed, that means Cincinnati, Liberty, Michigan, New Mexico, North Texas, Sam Houston, Santa Clara, UAB, UCF, Virginia Tech, Washington State, and Wisconsin would still make the NIT.
The question is which of Toledo, Hofstra, Southern Miss, and UC Irvine would still receive an invitation.
Going back to our Selection Sunday prognostications, the six teams we had closest to the NIT who did not ultimately make it were, in order: Nebraska, Wake Forest, San Jose State, Saint Louis, Marshall, and UNLV. Between those six and the aforementioned four, there would be six spots remaining for the ten teams. I’m not positive where the lines would have been drawn—I don’t have the data in front of me from our model, and that data isn’t perfect—but going by NET and KenPom, two very predictive numbers for NIT selection the last two years, it appears Toledo and Hofstra would probably be in, along with Southern Miss. UC Irvine would be on the bubble, but I’d personally guess they’d be out.
Overall, then, here’s who we think would have missed the 2023 NIT under these new rules:
- UC Irvine
- Eastern Washington
- Youngstown State
- Morehead State
- Alcorn State
And here’s who we think would have made it in their place:
- Texas Tech
- Ohio State
- Nebraska
- Wake Forest
- San Jose State
You’re trading five low-majors for four power conference teams and a mid-major. That’s how this shakes out. It’s a change, and a significant one, but what it does in actuality is open the field to sub-.500 teams (like Ohio State, who would have made the NIT if they’d scheduled less aggressively and played exactly the same quality of basketball), lower the cut line (something that helps power conference teams and mid-majors alike), give more home games to power conference teams, and cut out a few low-majors.
Those last two pieces are sad, and to be clear, we aren’t excited about this. We wish Fox Sports hadn’t tried to destroy the NIT, something we think tied the NCAA’s hands. But overall, the NIT is going to look very similar to how it’s looked for a long time now. This is not as big a change as some would have you believe. It does, though, again, really stink for low-majors, and it’s a bummer for some mid-majors as well, as the path to home games is now harder to navigate.
What this takes away is Robert Morris upsetting Kentucky. What this takes away is Cal State-Bakersfield making the NIT Final Four. What this takes away is a big reward for winning one’s regular season conference title, something much harder to do than winning a conference tournament.
In return?
We get to keep the NIT.
The Fox Sports proposal was a bad, bad sign for the NIT. This deals that proposal a crucial setback. It gives power conferences a lot of what they would have gotten from Fox in exchange for keeping the NIT around. Also? The Pac-12 is going away next year. There’s a good chance we drop to ten automatic bids in 2025, something which would have put UC Irvine back in the 2023 NIT and allowed Saint Louis to join them. This is going to give the NIT better TV ratings (i.e., a better chance at long-term survival), better Final Four attendance (i.e., a better atmosphere), and even more of a crapshoot setup (I actually don’t think that’s great, but that’s a discussion for another day). There will be no bad matchups in the new NIT. I am so sad about losing Morehead State. But I’m happy to get San Jose State in return. Mostly? I’m happy we still get the NIT. Hopefully, this helps us bask in its glory forever and ever.
Note: A previous version of this post implied that Oklahoma State, Cincinnati, and Sam Houston all hosted in the first round. They did not, by their own choice (scheduling conflicts). It also said Texas Tech was sub-.500. They were not. They were .500 but already had players deciding to transfer when Selection Sunday arrived.
