I know, I know. It’s late in the afternoon. You can’t wait to get off work, head home, and turn on the TV for some nice, ugly, low-major basketball, only to realize you’ll have to wait a couple hours because the early games aren’t on your television package.
But hold up just a minute.
Take a bit more time here.
Because there’s a conference tournament starting tonight, and you need to know its NIT implications.
The Southern Conference had a big 2019. UNC-Greensboro got a one-seed. Furman was somewhere in the field (a three, maybe?). Of course, neither lasted very long, but they made an appearance, and that’s a start. We’ll work on the staying power thing.
Both those teams are in the mix again this year, along with East Tennessee State. Of the three, Furman’s the only one which has been regularly showing up in our NIT Bracketology, but there are nine days between now and Selection Sunday. Or eight. Or ten? Depends how you count. The bottom line is, there’s time, and just as Furman’s not safely in, ETSU and UNCG aren’t safely out.
East Tennessee State
ETSU needs to lose to make the NIT. The question is…when? As Northern Iowa showed this morning, losing to the eight-seed in a quarterfinal’s always an option. But that’s a little easier in the Missouri Valley than it is down where the Bucs play. Because down where the Bucs play, the eight-seed’s Samford, and Samford’s really bad.
Now, VMI could make it a little easier on ETSU by beating Samford tonight. But even then, it’s going to be tough for ETSU to exit as early as the quarterfinals. It’s like a party. ETSU arrived early, and now they’re boxed in a long ways from the door. They’re probably sticking around for a while.
The problem for the Bucs is that if they don’t lose to VMI or Samford, their loss might not be enough to keep them from getting dragged into that other tournament, where there is wailing and gnashing of teeth. Nobody said it would be easy. But no one’s sure ETSU knew it would be this hard.
Keep an eye on our College Basketball Probabilities to see if ETSU has a shot if they do win their opener tomorrow, and to see how good that shot is if they lose.
Furman
These guys are in the thick of it.
It’s going to be hard for Furman to miss the NIT. Basically, if they beat Wofford tomorrow (or The Citadel), one has to imagine they’re in. Now, I suppose it’s possible the wrong kind of semifinal exit could sink their hopes, but they’re one of the most likely NIT teams in the land. Meaning, if you’re watching at home, it’s ok to start to get attached. They’re probably sticking around.
But.
There is a looming risk confronting Furman, and it’s one that confronts all NIT hopefuls.
They could win this conference tournament.
If they do that, it’s over. Done. Kaput. Hope is dead.
So maybe don’t do that, Furman.
UNC-Greensboro
Finally, our dear friends at UNCG.
UNCG’s walked a long road with us, from when they first helped us fall in love with the NIT (that was the year Jim Boeheim decided to slander the good people of Greensboro sometime around the ACC Tournament) to last year, when they got a one-seed few could reasonably say they deserved and were promptly dispatched by Lipscomb in the second round.
Now, they need some help.
There are a few ways this could go for UNCG.
They could lose their opener to Chattanooga. That would probably end it for them.
They could beat Chattanooga but lose to Furman. Or Wofford. But probably not The Citadel. If this goes down, they’ll have a chance, but they’ll need a whole lot of regular season champions to blow their shots at NIT automatic bids elsewhere, or a whole lot of mercy from the committee.
They could beat Furman in the semifinals but lose to ETSU in the championship. This might not be enough, but it’s their best shot, and it definitely could be enough. An opportunity to screw over a conference rival while punching one’s ticket to the greatest tournament in the land? Sign Wes Miller up.
They could win the whole darn thing. They should not do this, because then they would have to play in the other tournament, and no one wants to do that.
***
Yes, it begins tonight. No, none of these teams play tonight. Yes, you can still watch. No, it doesn’t really matter who you cheer for.
Go wild. I’ll see you in the morning.
