The Pac-12 Tournament is underway. Utah and Oregon State are playing what could be an NIT play-in game. You can’t watch it unless you have Pac-12 Network. You probably don’t have Pac-12 Network. Right? Do people have that? Do I have that?
*pause, small noises in background*
Whoa!
I have Pac-12 Network!
That really did just happen, and I’ve got Utah/Oregon State on now, so if you want to come watch, hurry up.
Colorado – 0.2% NIT-Likely Entering Today
Arizona – 2.6% NIT-Likely
USC – 7.7% NIT-Likely
If Colorado loses to Washington State, it’s possible they’ll make the NIT, but they’re probably already toast. If Washington goes on a run and takes down Arizona and USC, it’s possible those schools would make the NIT, but again—probably toast. Take that, Andy Enfield, you hater.
Arizona State – 33.9% NIT-Likely
Stanford – 48.7% NIT-Likely
ASU and Stanford are both right on the high bubble. If either makes it past tomorrow, things will likely look grim. But if either can get out of here now (or, you know, tomorrow, because ASU doesn’t play today), they could well be on their way to NIT glory.
UCLA – 87.9% NIT-Likely, Projected Three-Seed
In the interests of full disclosure, our model’s lower on UCLA’s chances than the rest of The Internet™ seems to be. Our model also thinks UCLA will most likely lose tomorrow to Stanford, though, so maybe we’re just ahead of things?
Either way, Mick Cronin’s done an incredible job of salvaging his team’s season. The NIT is an expectation. Few can say that.
Utah – 42.3% NIT-Likely, Projected Six-Seed
Oregon State – 37.6% NIT-Likely
Man, this is close. These two are next to each other in the model’s seed list right now. Really need to win this one. Utah’s got the lead at the half, but it’s a single-digit game, and Oregon State has cooler jerseys, which counts for something.
Whoever loses will have to hope on a low number of automatic bids. Whoever wins should feel like they just swallowed liquid gold (but in a universe where that isn’t deadly). Because emotionally, that’s exactly what they’ll have done.
Washington – 29.0% NIT-Likely
Washington, like UCLA, was left for dead at one point this year. Now, they have been found alive. Wild how that works sometimes. We should really get better about figuring out when teams are and are not dead.
Things still don’t look great for the Huskies, but an upset of Arizona today would get them firmly on the radar of the selection committee. It could even be enough to push them into the NIT if everything breaks correctly (need the committee to let a sub-.500 team in, and we don’t really know what they’d do with a team with a 16-17 team with Washington’s résumé). If one win is not enough, winning two would almost certainly get them in the field.
