With George Mason putting Saint Joe’s out of its misery just now, the Atlantic-10 Tournament is underway in D.C.
Wait, no.
Brooklyn.
My bad on that. Did it used to be in DC?
Anyway, A-10’s happening. Here’s who to watch:
Richmond – 19.6% NIT-Likely Entering Today
If they play this correctly and get the benefit of the doubt from that other tournament’s committee, Richmond could be back in the NIT for the first time since 2017, when they made their second trip to the quarterfinals in what was then three years. They still haven’t made a Final Four, but they might well be a favorite in their region this go-round. The problem is that the same traits that would make them a favorite in their region this go-round make it unlikely they’ll lose Friday to the Davidson/La Salle winner, which seems like something they need to do.
Saint Louis – 66.3% NIT-Likely, Projected One-Seed
The Billikens have come on strong of late, and while it’s possible they’ve come on too strong, they can probably get away with winning at least their Friday game. More than that and it’s bad news, probably (you have to say probably a lot when NIT prognosticating—that’s just how it works). But yeah, should be able to win one. Everyone but our model’s sleeping on them, which might mean our model’s wrong. That, or our model’s right, which would be kind of fun.
Rhode Island – 70.1% NIT-Likely, Projected One-Seed
If things go exactly as expected, there’ll be a significant presence from the A-10 atop the NIT seed list. If things go just a little bit wrong, though, the A-10 could be locked out. As is often said of the NIT, the gate is narrow.
URI’s NIT hopes were looking a lot worse a month ago. Since then, they’ve avoided beating Dayton (twice), pulled off an overtime loss at Davidson, and lost at home to Saint Louis, all while beating the teams they should. They epitomize a bubble team, and with just one bad loss, or even maybe just another loss to a Saint Louis-ish team, they should be dancing. With us, I mean.
VCU – 22.2% NIT-Likely
VCU’s fallen apart as the year’s reached its conclusion, losing eight of their last ten to play themselves out of NIT projections. Their opportunity to salvage something starts tomorrow, and watch closely, because Dayton awaits, and the Rams might be closer than the public thinks.
Duquesne – 17.1% NIT-Likely
Duquesne could be a surprise inclusion in the NIT field. They’ve quietly amassed 21 victories, which will turn into 22 if they take care of business tomorrow against George Washington or Fordham. Of course, they didn’t play anybody any good in non-conference play, but it’s always possible the powers that be will look past that.
To really feel good about their NIT chances, Duquesne needs to not only win tomorrow, but beat Rhode Island on Friday. They might need more than that, but that would be enough to at least get them more firmly in the bubble picture.
Davidson – 3.9% NIT-Likely
Doesn’t look great for Davidson, but hope is not yet dead.
St. Bonaventure – 0.1% NIT-Likely
Hope isn’t technically dead here either, but it’s a lot closer to dead. 39 times closer.
