Generally speaking, there are seven segments of the college basketball season. There’s opening night, with the “Champions” Classic. There’s Feast Week, when everyone for some reason goes to exotic locales (or Connecticut) to play teams from other conferences in events sometimes set up as tournaments (this is wacky, when you think about it—how in the heck did we get to where a bunch of low-majors are playing each other at a JuCo on the Floridian Panhandle). There’s the bulk of nonconference play, a thick slab of buy games sprinkled with marquee action. There’s the early days of conference play, when no one’s paying attention because college football’s still happening and the holidays rage on. There’s the post-CFP days of conference play, over which attention grows as Selection Sunday approaches (this is sometimes divided into pre and post-Super Bowl, but that is entirely meaningless for this post and the paragraph has gone on long enough as is). Finally, there are the conference tournament weeks, followed by the NIT and other, lesser postseason affairs.
If you were counting on your fingers just now (and/or toes, because, for example, you might be a sloth and therefore only have three fingers on each hand), you may recognize that today kind of kicks off the fourth of these segments. I say “kind of” because buy games continue for a few days yet and thanks to the Big Ten’s deal with the devil (better ratings in December in exchange for fewer NIT bids due to more sub-.500-overall teams), we’ve already had some conference contests go down. But today does mark a turning point, with the ACC and Mountain West tossing us appetizers before the SEC and Big East and a few other leagues start doing the serving dance from the Broadway version of Cinderella tomorrow. And with that turning point, it’s a good time to check in on the NIT picture.
Normally for this, we’d direct you to our NIT Bracketology, or better yet, our college basketball model’s NIT probabilities. Unfortunately, those are not yet live for this season. So instead, we’re doing this the old-fashioned way, which is a misnomer because really we’re just going to go through each of the big leagues individually and then the medium leagues individually and in groups and then the small leagues as one big group and look at which teams are good/bad enough to make the NIT (using KenPom) and which have played well/poorly enough to make the NIT (using BPI SOR), then semi-arbitrarily choose teams which fit in both windows to label “contenders.” We might even designate a favorite. It might even still be St. Bonaventure. You can see how this isn’t actually “old-fashioned.” I don’t think we’ve ever done it this way before, and judging by the desert that is the NIT blogging landscape, I think it’s safe to say nobody else has either.
We begin, obviously, with the Big Ten.
Big Ten
- In the Picture: Nobody
- Contenders: Nobody
This might change by the time we get our model up and running, but for the time being, we’re not letting the Big Ten fool us. Based on recent history, we don’t think it’s possible to finish the season above .500 overall as a Big Ten team and not get conscripted into that other tournament, and the probability of a team landing at exactly .500 is kind of low. Also, again, we’ve been fooled before. Often. Could a sub-.500 team make the NIT? It’s been a big question in recent seasons (hello, Penn State) but the answer, so far, has been “no,” and we aren’t going to question it too forcefully.
Big 12
- In the Picture: Oklahoma (KP: 34, SOR: 40), West Virginia (KP: 41, SOR: 30), Iowa State (KP: 45, SOR: 3), TCU (KP: 59, SOR: 46), Kansas State (KP: 68, SOR: 76)
- Contenders: West Virginia
In college basketball’s best conference, a number of teams are believable NIT participants. Oklahoma State’s postseason ban (a direct shot by the NCAA at the NIT’s level of competition) hampers things, but everyone else in the bottom half-ish of the league has a clear-cut NIT path, including undefeated Iowa State, who might not be a Vegas favorite again for nearly four weeks. The league’s best hope for a title? West Virginia, and we’re not just saying that because we 1) would like Bob Huggins to be involved with us and 2) would guess Morgantown would turn out for early-round NIT games. Those things encourage us to say it, but they’re not the only reasons.
SEC
- In the Picture: Florida (KP: 30, SOR: 66), Mississippi State (KP: 42, SOR: 78), Arkansas (KP: 44, SOR: 61), Texas A&M (KP: 64, SOR: 52), Vanderbilt (KP: 72, SOR: 109)
- Contenders: Mississippi State
Let’s acknowledge for a moment that Florida is making a strong NIT case, with one of the worst losses of the season we’ve seen so far from a mid or high-major, a home defeat by 15 at the hands of Texas Southern. It was Mike White’s Mona Lisa, and it might well be enough to get the man back to the NIT for the first time since the Obama administration, during which White was an NIT mainstay (he made all four NIT’s during the second term, but never cracked the Final Four despite three quarterfinal trips).
Now, with that acknowledged. Mississippi State’s the team to watch here. Ben Howland knows how to make the NIT. He knows how to win games once he’s there. And his team, like so many in the SEC, is currently making a strong case for inclusion. Florida might be a bigger pot of gold and Arkansas might be trendier, but the Gators get to play four home games against the five actually-good teams in the SEC, and Eric Musselman seems like he’d tell anyone with a remote NBA shot to opt out. The Muss Bus knows where it gets its gas.
Big East
- In the Picture: Creighton (KP: 46, SOR: 62), Providence (KP: 48, SOR: 6)
- Contenders: Nobody
Looking like another down year from the Big East. Sorry, friends. Think we’re a year away from a reunion with our beloved Shaka Smart.
ACC
- In the Picture: North Carolina (KP: 36, SOR: 29), Louisville (KP: 52, SOR: 80), Syracuse (KP: 62, SOR: 102), Wake Forest (KP: 66, SOR: 18), Clemson (KP: 38, SOR: 69), Virginia (KP: 71, SOR: 134), Florida State (KP: 39, SOR: 113), Notre Dame (KP: 58, SOR: 125)
- Contenders: Clemson
It’s a statement season from the Atlantic Coast Conference, and the statement being made is that this league is bad. The badness of the league is part of why I’m hesitant to include UNC and FSU in the in-the-picture list, and why Virginia Tech didn’t make the cut—those teams are going to get to beat up on a lot of mediocrity. But focusing too much on them distracts from the real point here, which is that this might be Clemson’s year.
Stick around long enough at a program as underwhelming as Clemson and you’re going to make some NIT’s. You might even make a Final Four, as Brownell did in 2014. The haters will cry that Brownell’s an NIT choker, pointing with vigor at that 2017 loss to Oakland. What they’re forgetting, those haters, is that the first round of the NIT is often a crapshoot for big favorites, and that if they do sleepwalk through and get a win, a mentality of “Well, we’re already here,” often takes over and they return to playing fine, if not well (by their standards, of course—this is the NIT, nobody’s playing “well”).
Clemson’s got a shot, and with the football program in decline, don’t be surprised if the question gets asked by March of whether Clemson’s a basketball school. This could be the program’s biggest accomplishment since receiving courtesy mentions in the Zion Williamson conversation.
Pac-12
- In the Picture: Washington State (KP: 47, SOR: 176), Oregon (KP: 61, SOR: 146)
- Contenders: Washington State
It’s a down year for our favorite power conference, but what the Pac-12 lacks in breadth it makes up for in thrill, with Kyle “Moneyball” Smith offering us the prospect of an NIT game with a total in the 70’s and Dana Altman teeing us up perfectly for “Don’t forget what a great coach Dana Altman is in March” narratives. Even when it disappoints, the Pac-12 never disappoints.
AAC
- In the Picture: UCF (KP: 53, SOR: 45), Memphis (KP: 31, SOR: 89), Wichita State (KP: 65, SOR: 68), SMU (KP: 69, SOR: 115)
- Contenders: Memphis
Apologies to the Wes Miller acolytes, but we do not believe in this Cincinnati team. We do believe, however, in Memphis’s repeat hopes. With a clear gap between the power conferences and the AAC, we expect Memphis to be treated as a mid-major, and with plenty of chances for bad losses and few chances for new good wins, we’re ready for the Tigers to roar once more. What an era this is becoming under Penny Hardaway.
Mountain West
- In the Picture: Colorado State (KP: 35, SOR: 12), San Diego State (KP: 43, SOR: 48), Utah State (KP: 56, SOR: 75), Boise State (KP: 57, SOR: 103), Fresno State (KP: 63, SOR: 72)
- Contenders: Colorado State
Making almost all its teams play Air Force twice a season was a stroke of genius by whoever came up with the MWC’s NIT blitz. As has so often been the case in recent years, the Mountain West is locked in on NIT glory, and Colorado State stands out as a particularly promising contender, with a schedule that could end up featuring no at-large bids to the other tournament and memories of last year’s near miss (of a third-place NIT finish) fresh in the mind. Niko Medved took that tournament seriously, and the possibility of it coming back to Frisco/Denton only adds to the echoes of the giant footsteps rattling down from the mountains.
West Coast Conference
- In the Picture: San Francisco (KP: 32, SOR: 22), Saint Mary’s (KP: 37, SOR: 44)
- Contenders: San Francisco, Saint Mary’s
San Francisco, like Colorado State, is a mid-major with a great record and no impressive results in nonconference play. If they can get past the Academy of Art today (those guys are back!), they’ll enter the new year with a full head of NIT steam (actually, losing to the Academy of Art might be even better, but that really does seem unlikely). Meanwhile, there’s an air of inevitability around Saint Mary’s, who’s knocked on the NIT door again and again over the last ten or twelve years. Two title contenders in one league? While the Big East and ACC languish? Rough one for the East Coast NIT community.
Atlantic 10
- In the Picture: Davidson (KP: 54, SOR: 44), Richmond (KP: 60, SOR: 65), St. Bonaventure (KP: 67, SOR: 54)
- Contenders: Nobody
It’s important to note that teams “in the picture” aren’t guaranteed to stay in the picture, and teams out of the picture aren’t guaranteed to stay out of the picture, and given the skyrocketing coronavirus case counts nationwide, the picture isn’t even guaranteed to stay in the picture (hopefully those death counts stay low, for reasons beyond the NIT but, you know, inclusive of the NIT as well). Saying that here because the A-10 is a mess and little would surprise us from it as far as NIT bids go. Also, the Bonnies aren’t favorites anymore. We’ll name a favorite but it isn’t the Bonnies.
Other Mid-Majors (Missouri Valley, Conference USA, MAC, Sun Belt)
- In the Picture: UAB (KP: 50, SOR: 85)
- Contenders: Nobody
I’m not too confident in where I’m drawing this mid-major/low-major line, but the point is, these leagues aren’t pulling their weight. Loyola’s too good. Everyone else is too bad. Even UAB isn’t a contender, as we were hoping they’d be (that said, they’ve got one-seed vibes, just putting that out there). Also, is Conference USA doing divisions again? Conference USA is so hard to keep track of. Remember when they did that scheduling thing where the last four games were TBD until right before they started? That was aggressive. We get that you’re a mid-major league with sick headquarters, but that was aggressive.
Low-Majors (Everyone Else)
- In the Picture: Belmont (KP: 55, SOR: 35)
- Contenders: Nobody
So this is why it’s hard to draw the line: I’d say Belmont’s a mid-major, but I’d say the OVC is a low-major league. You see why it’s hard to draw this line? Anyway, Belmont’s back, and they played a much more challenging non-conference schedule than last year, even though that ESPN Events Classic or whatever it was called failed to get them a game against a high-major. Casey Alexander, come back to us. We will dance in the streets once more.
***
Who’s the favorite? Well, we’ve named as contenders West Virginia, Mississippi State, Clemson, Washington State, Memphis, Colorado State, San Francisco, and Saint Mary’s. Feeling uninspired? Good. That’s how you’re supposed to feel. Obviously, it comes down to Washington State and San Francisco, and because the A’s always struggled in the postseason even during the great years, Kyle Smith is going to remain just a challenger until he proves himself a champion. San Francisco, it’s your time to shine. You are ending 2021 as the NIT favorite. Godspeed, and please stay asymptomatic if not entirely uninfected.
