The NIT Begins ToNITe

The NIT is upon us. We are mere hours away now from the opening tip, and what a tip it shall be.

We didn’t get the bluebloods we deserved. Indiana was either not invited or opted out. Duke wilted when faced with historic opportunity. Kentucky never really got back in the picture after falling through it like a stone. UCLA came up just short. Michigan State’s hopes were dashed by groupthink.

But we never asked for the best programs in the NIT, just like we never ask for the best teams. We asked for the right programs. Because we ask for the right teams. And these…are them.

I just filled out my bracket. I filled it out with my heart (and a pen). And this year, of all years, what better way to preview the field than reflecting on the decisions of our hearts?

First Round

Colorado State vs. Buffalo

Colorado State head coach Niko Medved has the right attitude, calling the NIT “a major step forward” for the program on Sunday. He understands the magnitude of the opportunity, and as the top overall seed, he likely also knows there’s a target on CSU’s back.

The Rams got here in conventional fashion: By losing games at the right time. Specifically, after beating San Diego State and Utah State on the road in January, the Rams settled down, dropping one to Boise State in Fort Collins to end the month before ending the regular season with a loss in Reno to Nevada. They were far from assured a spot after their first round Mountain West Conference Tournament victory against Fresno State, but a clean loss to Utah State later, they headed into Selection Sunday with some hope, and that hope was rewarded.

Buffalo, meanwhile, snuck up on the field. The Bulls’ best victory of the season, and only one of much note, was a throttling of Ohio in Athens a couple Saturdays back. After losing the rematch in the MAC Championship, we didn’t expect to see them at all. They had never really been on our NIT radar. Then, Sunday night, there they were: one of the first teams announced.

The NIT is nothing if not mysterious.

The Bulls love to run, and teams that love to run give the NIT a jolt. But I didn’t see a single simple, positive Twitter montage featuring Buffalo coach Jim Whitesell this week. I did see the Medved one. Colorado State survives a close one.

Pick: Colorado State

***

Davidson vs. North Carolina State

We would call Davidson a beneficiary of opt-outs, but it seems as many as half the teams, or more, are beneficiaries of opt-outs. The Wildcats are hard to get a read on. They played Texas and Providence close in Maui/Asheville. They played St. Bonaventure close in their home date with the A-10 champs. They beat VCU. But they also lost to Charlotte, and despite Kellan Grady and Hyunjung Lee both shooting better than 40% from three, Davidson’s not among the nation’s leaders in three-point percentage. Something seems off here.

NC State, meanwhile, enters the tournament hot. Maybe legitimately so. Over the Wolfpack’s final six games, North Carolina’s other other other basketball team (we’re counting the Hornets as a basketball team) went 5-1 with four road wins, including one over Virginia. We’ve long awaited a Kevin Keatts NIT run. Is this the year?

My gut doesn’t trust Davidson, and my heart trusts my gut. As I said, we’ve long awaited a Kevin Keatts NIT run. This might not be the year. But he’ll at least give us the thrill of hope.

Pick: North Carolina State

***

Boise State vs. SMU

Boise State gets style points. After sweeping Utah State at home, the Broncos looked like they were toast. They had road wins over BYU and Colorado State. They’d avoided losing to anyone worse than Nevada (Reno managed to have quite the impact on this year’s NIT despite not sending their own Wolf Pack to the ball). They had two upside-only games awaiting them at San Diego State.

Even after Boise State lost both in the little SD (the big SD is South Dakota, because of geography and math), we still didn’t think our 2017-18 darlings would be back for more. Then…they lost to Fresno State. Then…they lost a third time to Nevada. And suddenly, the entity of Derrick Alston & Co. was waking up on Selection Sunday feeling like a lock.

SMU had the strangest path here. Things were going fine for the Mustangs—they’d beaten Dayton in Dayton, they’d split a home-and-home with Memphis, they’d lost to Cincinnati but who hasn’t lost to Cincinnati once or twice. But Covid comes for us all, eventually (or something like that), and the pride (?) of Dallas had to take a month off, a month during which the NIT was announced to be coming to their own backyard. An AAC Tournament loss to Cincinnati later (was the first loss practice?), they’ve arrived.

I’m skeptical of SMU’s home-court advantage, and so is my heart. I’ve never been to SMU, but I understand its part of town is filthily wealthy. Frisco? Can’t say. Never been there either. But if Southern Methodist University is as stuck-up as its reputation implies, they aren’t going to like playing basketball in a suburb. Especially if that suburb isn’t one where former presidents reside.

Pick: Boise State

***

Memphis vs. Dayton

Alongside NC State, Davidson, and Toledo, Memphis and Dayton are repeat NIT voyagers, having each played in the 2019 edition. That year, Memphis fell to Creighton in the second round, while Dayton couldn’t handle the altitude in Boulder and exited immediately (well, after about two hours of gameplay).

Did I remember all of that off the top of my head? No. But I remembered it in the depths of my heart. We’ve been ready for a Memphis NIT run ever since Penny Hardaway guaranteed a national championship prior to the 2019-20 season. (He did do that, right? I’m remembering that right?) So while Dayton can feel all proud of themselves for…I don’t know, making the Saint Joe’s hawk real happy when they lost in Philly a couple weeks back, they’re still unproven. Without the opt-outs, they were an NIT bubble team, at best. Memphis, who made everybody say, “Uhh, is Memphis gonna miss the NIT?” by almost beating Houston on Saturday (literally everybody in the world said this, and if you don’t remember saying it, you were asleep), is the real deal.

Pick: Memphis

***

Saint Louis vs. Mississippi State

SLU was supposed to be a solid team this year. Not supposed to be in the NIT picture. Then they missed a month due to Covid, lost each of their first two games back, righted the ship, lost it again, and eventually bowed out peacefully in the A-10 semifinals, their NIT bid secured.

It was a weird way to do it, but here they are, and they’re one of the favorites. Remember Travis Ford? Oklahoma State guy? He’s their coach.

They deal with a Mississippi State team much lesser than the one Quinndary Weatherspoon led to New York in 2018. Those Bulldogs were competitive. These muddled through an SEC schedule, notching a couple nice wins (they beat Mississippi in Oxford and Florida/Mizzou at home) but also some dastardly losses (Liberty, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt).

No hate to Mississippi State. But the heart knows they’re overmatched.

Pick: Saint Louis

***

Richmond vs. Toledo

Toledo’s back.

The Rockets didn’t do what we hoped last NIT, falling to Xavier in the first round. Which is a shame. We need more rockets in our lives, whatever their form, and we do not need more Musketeers. Three is plenty.

This year, the Marreon Jackson-led MAC Regular Season Champions might be better than even that 2019 team. Might is the key word here. It’s about a 50/50 shot. They do know how to score, though, landing in the 90’s in nearly half of their last 16 or 17 games. They also have the experience necessary to allow us to say they have experience in the NIT. And like all MAC NIT appearers this year, they lost to Ohio in the conference tournament.

Richmond, meanwhile, is kind of a mess. They were so trendy before the season, and they did beat Kentucky in Lexington, which isn’t not impressive. They also beat Loyola in Indianapolis, and took care of Davidson in…Davidson plays in Davidson, yes? They lost so many bad games, though, and they now haven’t won in over three weeks, and that win was against UMass, meaning they haven’t won a game that makes me say, “Ok, that’s a solid win,” since the Davidson game, which was still in 2020.

Sorry, Spiders. Down the spout you go.

Pick: Toledo

***

Saint Mary’s vs. Western Kentucky

Two major players in the 2018 NIT Final Four go at it in Frisco tonight. WKU is led by Big Red, not on the court, but emotionally, for we are all led by Big Red emotionally. Saint Mary’s? Not sure who leads them. Are they still doing the Australia thing?

There are questions about whether Western Kentucky’s actually any good. They beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa, but that was in December, and they beat Memphis in Sioux Falls (the natural place for WKU and Memphis to meet), but that was in January. Since then, their crowning achievement is a road win over Marshall back in January. They’ve lost to Old Dominion more recently than that. And if you, like me, just wondered if Old Dominion was any good this year, they were not any good.

Saint Mary’s, similarly, doesn’t have a lot to go off of. They held Colorado State to a hilarious 33 points in December, but they lost every other game they played against an NIT-or-better team, and none of those were particularly close.

In the end, Saint Mary’s might be the smart play, but love isn’t always smart.

And I love Big Red.

Pick: Western Kentucky

***

Mississippi vs. Louisiana Tech

Kermit Davis! Remember him? Kind of disappointing 2018 run with Middle Tennessee State.

Mississippi might be the best team in this. But again, in the NIT, it’s not about being best. It’s about being right. Although to be fair, being best goes a long way towards winning, and whoever wins is who we call “right.”

The Fighting Confederate Imageries took their lumps early in the year. They even got swept by Georgia. But they’ve put it together lately, winning not-at-all noteworthy games in a large enough quantity to catch the NIT committee’s eye.

They’ll play Louisiana Tech, who carries in an impressive 21-7 record against a, well, the schedule was fine. Split with Marshall. Split with Western Kentucky. Split with North Texas. Split with…UTEP.

Were this not in the Metroplex, and were Conference USA not firmly in control of the Metroplex (best headquarters of the three FBS leagues with headquarters there), Mississippi would be the emotional favorite. But you don’t bet against a Conference USA semifinalist in the first round of an NIT game in Frisco. That’s in the bible (depending on the translation).

Pick: Louisiana Tech

Quarterfinals

Colorado State vs. North Carolina State

Sorry, Kevin Keatts. So far, your best NIT run was merely a vehicle to one of the greatest basketball games of all time (Lipscomb/NCSU 2019, look it up if you don’t remember), which makes you still an accessory piece.

All it takes is one good Twitter video, folks. That’s all it takes for me to pick you.

Pick: Colorado State

***

Boise State vs. Memphis

Memphis has everything going for them. They’re pretty good. Their coach guaranteed a national title and this is the first opportunity since that guarantee was made. But Boise State never said never this year. They never quit. Gotta trust a team with that level of dedication.

Pick: Boise State

***

Saint Louis vs. Toledo

Travis Ford seems like a name I should remember, but his record in Stillwater was thoroughly unimpressive. Memorable but underwhelming? Sorry, Toledo. You can’t top that.

Pick: Saint Louis

***

Western Kentucky vs. Louisiana Tech

I am not ready to pick against Big Red.

Pick: Western Kentucky

Semifinals

Colorado State vs. Boise State

Throw the regular season results out the window. Or, you know, just forget them, which is what I’ve done.

Colorado State had the video, but Boise State’s dramatic, emphatic, sciatic fall into the NIT is impossible to ignore.

Pick: Boise State

***

Saint Louis vs. Western Kentucky

Look. I love Big Red probably a lot more than the next guy, but until he wins an NIT Final Four game, I don’t trust him to win an NIT Final Four game.

Pick: Saint Louis

Third Place Game

Colorado State vs. Western Kentucky

Big Red will steal the show. But Colorado State’s calm-headed-ness is a necessary trait for a team looking to be the first NIT Third Place finisher in almost twenty years.

Pick: Colorado State

Championship

Boise State vs. Saint Louis

Can you really see Travis Ford winning an NIT?

Pick: Boise State

Tiebreakers

Total Turnovers in Tournament: 600
Total Fouls in Tournament: 700
Vice Presidential Birthplace Closest to Eastern Edge of Runner-Up Campus: Nixon (I am hedging)

***

Today’s other notes:

• Lot of coaching changes going around, but Richard Pitino to New Mexico is the headliner. If this generation’s Pitino can win a second NIT, and win it at a second school, it’s going to be hard not to include him in discussions of the greatest coaches of all time. With New Mexico a frequent NIT appearer in its past, there’s hope, but remember—they wouldn’t have always made the modern NIT with those résumés.
• There’s a rumor going around that there were more opt-outs than were reported, which would explain how a few of these teams made it all the way up into the field.
• The NIT, if you haven’t heard, starts tonight. Here’s the action:

7:00 PM EDT: Richmond vs. Toledo (ESPN2)

Tonight’s Denton chapter features these former mid-major darlings. You’ve already heard the thoughts of my heart, but to pivot to the thoughts of my head:

Pretty even matchup on paper, but the word is that Grant Golden is out for Richmond and Blake Francis is questionable. It’s possible Toledo has health concerns too, but I haven’t heard about those. Which makes Toledo tonight’s favorite.

9:00 PM EDT: Saint Mary’s vs. Western Kentucky (ESPN2)

I don’t know if Big Red is in Frisco for this one. Should’ve checked that. If he isn’t…bad news for the Hilltoppers.

Thankfully, Big Red evidently knows how to hitchhike. Which isn’t good for the Gaels.

Bona NIT.