The Lightning beat the Canadiens last night, and our model has them up to nearly eighty percent likely to win the Stanley Cup. That’s still a bit lower than the market’s projection (I’m seeing the Lightning at -750 and the Canadiens at +475, implying about an 85/15 split instead of our model’s 78/22 outlook), but with our model moving into stronger alignment with the sportsbooks (I’m seeing a consensus of a 67/33 probability for Game 2, which our model has as 65/35), it’s still noteworthy. Basically, the market thinks the Canadiens’ home-ice advantage is lesser than the norm. Our model doesn’t have an opinion on it, built to treat all home-ice as the same. We’ll see, but first, Game 2 tomorrow night.
The Lightning Are in Control—But How Much Control?
