We’ve got ourselves a series. Two series, in fact.
What Happened
Boston 9, Houston 5
The Red Sox pounced. Kyle Schwarber hit a leadoff double. Rafael Devers drew a one-out walk. Alex Verdugo drew a two-out walk. J.D. Martinez hit a game-opening grand slam.
In the second inning? They did it again.
It was Devers doing the hitting in the second inning, and it came with one out instead of two, but the effect was the same: It buried the Astros.
Houston did bounce back, following up a Kike Hernández solo shot with a three-run fourth, but the rest of their damage didn’t come until the ninth, when two solo home runs (Yuli Gurriel, Jason Castro) got us to our final. Meanwhile, Nathan Eovaldi turned in the worst playoff outing of his career, allowing…three runs over five and a third (struck out three, walked one).
Atlanta 3, Los Angeles 2
We were skeptical of Dave Roberts’s decision to use Max Scherzer in Game 5 of the NLDS, viewing it as an even tradeoff in the moment between Scherzer and the bullpen and a bad tradeoff come last night, where Scherzer was ultimately deemed unavailable. In the end, it didn’t seem to matter much, at least for Game 1 (we’ll see about the rest of the postseason). The bullpen did its job, and if the offense was only going to score two runs anyway, having Scherzer out there probably wouldn’t have made the difference.
The Dodgers had the lead at one point. In the bottom of the first, Atlanta had inched ahead on some baserunning aggression from Eddie Rosario and a wild pitch by Corey Knebel, but Los Angeles answered right back in the second and took the lead on a Will Smith home run in the fourth. Austin Riley answered that, though, with a home run of his own, and from there, it was white-knuckle time.
It was a strong outing from the Dodger bullpen, with every pitcher striking out at least one and no one walking a batter. Phil Bickford, Justin Bruihl, Alex Vesia, Joe Kelly, and Kenley Jansen each pitched at least a scoreless frame without allowing a ball hit 100 mph or harder. A dominant showing. Like one of those military parades in belligerent countries. Only Knebel, Tony Gonsolin, and Blake Treinen allowed runs, and only Gonsolin allowed a run on substantial contact.
Atlanta was effective from the mound as well, with Max Fried turning in six innings with five strikeouts and no walks of his own, then Tyler Matzek and Luke Jackson working scoreless innings with a strikeout apiece and also no walks. There wasn’t a walk in the game until the top of the ninth, when Will Smith (the Atlanta Will Smith) dealt a two-out base on balls to Chris Taylor.
In the bottom of the ninth, Ozzie Albies nabbed second after a one-out single, and Riley blooped a single into left to score him, ending it. Just a great ballgame.
The Heroes
Win Probability Added leaders, from FanGraphs:
- Riley (0.39)
- Martinez (0.29)
- Taylor (0.23) – drove in the first Los Angeles run in the second on a single
What It Means
We’re all of a sudden in a murky place, with the Dodgers still World Series favorites but only 51.5% likely, per FanGraphs, to win the NLCS. The Astros/Red Sox series is even closer, heading to Boston tied at one with FanGraphs rating it almost an exact tossup.
The markets are more confident in the West Division teams than the numbers, evidently, because they still have both Los Angeles and Houston as decided favorites. It’s possible there’s something there. It’s also possible the markets are wrong.
Other Notes
- The Dodgers didn’t let Freddie Freeman beat them, striking out the still-reigning MVP four times in four trips to the plate.
- Taylor had two hits and a walk, Trea Turner had two hits.
- Xander Bogaerts notched two hits, as did Martinez, as did Alex Verdugo, who also walked once.
- Gurriel had two hits, and ditto Kyle Tucker, who doubled home a run in the fourth for Houston.
- No pitcher besides Fried threw more than 28 pitches in the NL game, leaving well-stocked bullpens on each side for Game 2.
***
Now, today:
The Basics
Where: Truist Park
When: 7:38 PM EDT
Broadcast: TBS
Starting Pitchers: Ian Anderson (ATL); Max Scherzer (LA)
Odds: LA -175; ATL +160; o/u 7½ (u -115) [English translation: Los Angeles is roughly 63% likely to win; Atlanta is roughly 37% likely to win; the expected number of runs scored is something like 7.4]
The Details
Anderson had a middling regular season (4.12 FIP, 4.30 xERA), especially compared to his six 2020 starts, but he dazzled in Game 3 of the NLDS, evidently showing enough against a bad Brewers lineup that Atlanta decided to start him on five days’ rest rather than go to Charlie Morton on four. Morton threw on three days’ rest his last time out, so this adds up, but they’d probably prefer Morton overall. Still, Anderson’s a fine option.
He’s got his work cut out for him. Scherzer, as is known, is one of the greats. But Scherzer’s arm was tired on Friday, which is why he didn’t pitch last night, and while Scherzer’s a major league pitcher he’s also facing major league hitters. Things can surprise you.
The Stars
Can Freeman wake back up? Can Mookie Betts, who also didn’t reach base, wake back up? How fresh is the Dodger bullpen really? The same question can be asked of Atlanta’s back end.
If the Dodgers can win, they’re back in the driver’s seat, grabbing home field advantage and making it a five-game series, with Walker Buehler lined up to start against Morton in Game 3. If Atlanta wins, they get up to five chances to win two more games, which is…the same position they were in last year. Want more parallels? The winning pitcher in 2020’s Game 1 was Will Smith. The losing pitcher was Blake Treinen. The same was the case last night.
