We’ve got fresh NIT Bracketology for the weekend, which is dope, but before we get to the NITuation, let’s talk about the latest NIT rumor:
My official response:
Yes. This is good for the NIT. Making the NIT so difficult that teams can be plucked out of it on the whims of the devil? Terrifying. But also just raises the challenge. Going to be very hard for anyone to consider the other tournament to be tougher to win if this does go down.
Will it go down? I doubt it. It seems like something that will incentivize thousands to root for young athletes to be infected with the coronavirus in an even more direct way than they’re already incentivized to do that.
But I wouldn’t mind (also wouldn’t mind a week or two in Indiana).
The NITuation:
Movin’ Out (Anthony’s Song): Stephen F. Austin (auto-bid)
We’re down to twelve automatic bids in our median simulation, and the Lumberjacks were evidently number thirteen. Not too hard to get back in, guys! Just need to win and lose a precisely calibrated number of times.
Moving In: North Texas
Thankfully, the state of Texas maintains its representation, with the Mean Green entering the mix. Not a bad Waffle House there in Denton off 35. But what Waffle House is bad, really?
Teams on NIT Turf Who Are Too Likely to Win Their Conference Tournament
Saint Louis (would be projected 1-seed), Marshall (5-seed), Wright State (6-seed).
The Sixteen
If the tournament’s sixteen teams big, here’s the seed list:
1. Stanford
2. Wichita State
3. SMU
4. UConn
5. Western Kentucky
6. Penn State
7. Belmont
8. Richmond
9. Mississippi
10. Memphis
11. Georgia Tech
12. Saint Mary’s
13. UC-Santa Barbara
14. Utah State
15. Syracuse
16. Winthrop
Next in Line:
And then here would be the low bubble, from closest to close:
St. John’s
Marshall
Duke
Toledo
Louisiana Tech
Notre Dame
Georgia
Wright State
North Texas
Navy
Providence
TCU
From the Other Side:
Again, from closest to close:
Xavier
North Carolina
Minnesota
Indiana
Boise State
Seton Hall
Colorado State
Maryland
Colgate
Drake
UCLA
Oregon
***
And that’s the NITuation.
Other notes for today:
- Penn State lost to Ohio State and would now have to finish 6-2 to get to .500 overall, and that’s assuming they make up both their postponed games (I think the more likely scenario is they make up neither, but I’m not confident in that). There are other test cases for the .500 line, but that’s the big one at the moment.
- Oregon beat Colorado. Can’t have that.
- UCLA beat Arizona. Again, opportunity missed.
- Wichita State made a statement beating Houston by as much as they did. Risky territory for the Shockers, but that’s an experienced program right there.
- Vermont beat UMBC to grab a firm hold of the A-East. Might’ve even clinched. I don’t know and I’m not checking.
- Stanford took care of business against Washington and didn’t exit the field. Daring move but it appears to have worked.
- Saint Mary’s, take a bow. Respectable 22-point defeat at the hands of the Zags.
- Utah State plays Boise State again tonight. Can’t say enough how badly the Mountain West wants Utah State to get that win.
- Buffalo hosts Toledo. Buffs aren’t that close…unless they are? Intriguing, to say the least, especially with Akron hot on Toledo’s heels. Speaking of the Zips, they’re down in Muncie tonight.
- I think the HoLo finale is this weekend, and we’ve got Wright State visiting Northern Kentucky while Cleveland State plays the Mastodons in Mastodonia. In tropes, the Wright State/NKU game would be a grizzled veteran trying to take down their old rival one last time. Go Norse, go.
- Oh. Looks like Vermont plays UMBC again tonight. Not sure what the A-East situation is if Vermont drops it.
- In the Summit League, NDSU could make a claim to the lead league by beating South Dakota State. I think. Again this is all very confusing. Bison are 9-3. Jacks are 6-2. South Dakota’s 9-3. Woof.
- UCSB has to host Cal State-Bakersfield, Final Four appearers in 2017. Gotta beat the almost-best to be the almost-best.
- Saint Louis visits Dayton. Not sure what the Billikens want to do but my gut says lose.
- Probably some other stuff in auto-bid territory, but auto-bids probably aren’t happening, so who cares! (I care. But only a little.)
Bona NIT.
