Generally, in the end, the best college football teams win. I can think of only two occasions in the College Football Playoff era in which there was reasonable doubt over whether the accepted national champion was the nation’s best team, and only one where there was reasonable doubt over whether this team had been the best over enough of the season to deserve the title (TCU fans, please treat us nicely for saying this, because we’re about to dismiss you as a 2022-23 playoff candidate).
We say this to say that winning the national championship is mostly about being good. But making the playoff? That’s about avoiding pitfalls. Which makes it notable that of the 22 teams who entered the weekend with a 1.0% or better probability of making the playoff, per our model, nine lost, seven of those were upset, and one additional team played so badly that its playoff probability receded by nearly half.
The Top
Entering Week 5, our top four playoff contenders looked like this:
| Team | Make Playoff |
| Georgia | 86.2% |
| Alabama | 71.6% |
| Ohio State | 70.8% |
| Michigan | 34.8% |
Exiting it, they look like this:
| Team | Make Playoff |
| Alabama | 83.3% |
| Georgia | 77.3% |
| Ohio State | 71.0% |
| Michigan | 49.0% |
What went down? We’ll start with the simplest piece: Ohio State did about exactly as well as expected against Rutgers. Around them, though…
Georgia looked mediocre for the second straight week, needing all four quarters to grab a road victory over Mizzou.
Alabama looked sensational on the road in Fayetteville, shifting the plot and grabbing a new claim as the best team in the country.
Michigan took care of business in Iowa City, comfortably winning a tricky game and holding the Hawkeyes scoreless through 45 minutes of play.
We have more questions, then, about Georgia, and we have fewer about Alabama, and our confidence in Michigan has been slightly restored after they and Ohio State went in opposite directions last weekend. But this, comparably, was a quiet part of the proceedings. Let’s broaden our scope.
Here’s everyone who had a 10.0% playoff probability or better on Friday morning:
| Team | Make Playoff |
| Georgia | 86.2% |
| Alabama | 71.6% |
| Ohio State | 70.8% |
| Michigan | 34.8% |
| Minnesota | 22.9% |
| Clemson | 19.1% |
| Utah | 17.0% |
| Oklahoma State | 14.3% |
| Penn State | 10.8% |
Here’s everyone who has one now:
| Team | Make Playoff |
| Alabama | 83.3% |
| Georgia | 77.3% |
| Ohio State | 71.0% |
| Michigan | 49.0% |
| Oklahoma State | 27.9% |
| Clemson | 27.2% |
| Utah | 24.0% |
Minnesota? After losing by ten at home to Purdue, the margin of error is gone, and the team looks a whole lot worse. Penn State? Struggling to score against Northwestern in the rain is understandable, but you’re trending the wrong way. Oklahoma State, Clemson, and Utah? Well done. You exceeded expectations, and you’re now approaching consensus main character status.
Clemson’s visit from NC State was the biggest game of the weekend coming in, but we don’t walk away from it impressed by the Tigers so much as we acknowledge that their second-toughest test has been passed. They still have to go to Tallahassee and South Bend, and it’s conceivable that their guests—Syracuse, Louisville, Miami, and South Carolina—could give them trouble, or that the ACC Championship could prove challenging. Overall, though, they’re probably in the clear as long as they aren’t too medium. There’s no reason to believe this team is in the same league as Michigan, let alone Alabama or Georgia or Ohio State, but we’re probably not going to learn that definitively until the Fiesta Bowl.
Oklahoma State’s trip to Waco was the second-biggest game coming in, and the Pokes didn’t disappoint, bending but not breaking in the first half before busting things open to open the second. The Big 12 has only the one contender (more on Oklahoma and the rest in a minute), and Movelor, our model’s rating system, is higher on that contender than just about anyone else save the AP Poll (you don’t want to be compared to the AP Poll), but a 4-0 Oklahoma State is a 4-0 Oklahoma State, and we’d be surprised if these guys were underdogs before Halloween weekend, and perhaps until the Peach Bowl.
Utah hosted Oregon State, and that game didn’t get much billing but it shouldn’t have. It was only going to be a story if it knocked the home team out of the running. It didn’t. In fact, Utah asserted itself as probably the fifth-best outfit nationally, and in a thin Pac-12 (more on USC and the rest in a minute), even the loss at Florida isn’t enough to hold them far behind their ACC and Big 12 counterparts. They’re a factor in this race, and should be expected to beat up the rest of their schedule more emphatically than anyone else in the country.
Now, conferences:
The Big 12: Who Is Good?
Good God, Oklahoma. Good God, Iowa State. Is Texas the best team in this conference? Is it TCU? Kansas State? Oklahoma State after all?
The most shocking result of the weekend was the Sooners’ pasting in Fort Worth, one that poured fuel onto TCU’s fire but, circularly, was such an emphatic result that it left the Horned Frogs without a great win, and like Oklahoma State merely 4-0, having already taken a week off.
Further down the pole, but surprising nonetheless, was Kansas ascending to 5-0 with a triumph over the visiting Cyclones. Neither TCU nor Kansas is above the 1.0% playoff likelihood threshold we use to designate teams as “alive,” but we’d imagine Saturday’s winner will be. At least, if it’s TCU. Movelor still has the Jayhawks down around Utah State and Rutgers in its ratings.
Kansas State spent its fourth quarter pulling away from Texas Tech, and Texas rolled more or less comfortably past West Virginia, leaving the Longhorns ranked as highly as 5th in reputable ratings systems (we have them 15th) and favored by a touchdown over OU this weekend in Dallas.
What’s going to happen in this league? The likeliest explanation, with such disagreement between ratings systems on just about every team, is that it’s going to cannibalize itself. Only Oklahoma State is above even the 1.0% threshold for playoff probability, and while TCU, again, may soon jump that, there’s a long way to go, and 1-in-100 isn’t much.
The ACC: Can Clemson Coast?
Movelor’s a little slow to react, some might argue (we’d argue this could be a strength, but that’s just us). As such, it still has Notre Dame in the top ten, which spells trouble for Clemson in its eyes. Behind the Tigers, though (Notre Dame is eighth, Clemson is ninth), you have to drop a long way to find another ACC squad. The Big 12’s in trouble, but it’s good, with five teams in Movelor’s top sixteen. The ACC isn’t in trouble, but it’s bad, with just two squads in the top 25, and NC State hardly there at 24th. Behind the Wolfpack, you have to drop to Wake Forest at 29th to taste some ACC, and then to already-a-running-joke North Carolina at 37th.
Clemson’s vulnerable enough that even with the Notre Dame contest not a conference game, our model gives all three of Wake, NC State, and UNC better than a 1-in-100 shot of winding up in the playoff, almost always by winning the conference. For that to happen, the only one with a straightforward route is UNC, who’s taken over as a 41% Coastal Division favorite after whooping Virginia Tech on Saturday and watching Pitt take a shocking loss to Georgia Tech. Wake, who beat up Florida State on the road, needs Clemson to lose at least twice in league play. So does NC State.
Notably, Syracuse is still undefeated overall after taking care of Wagner, but the Orange’s big wins have come against Louisville, Purdue, and Virginia, not exactly the most inspiring trio. They have this coming week off, so we’ll keep talking about them and hearing about them, but it’d be a surprise if they found their way to Clemson in three weeks still inhabiting the ranks of relevance. Our model has their playoff probability down at 0.3%, half of even LSU and Notre Dame’s.
The Big Ten: The West Must Still Be Won
Someone has to win the West, and our model still has Minnesota as the heavy favorite, owing to their path and Movelor’s perception of their ability (we do view Purdue as nearly a top-25 team). An interesting sleeper? Illinois checks in at 10.0% likely to make the Big Ten title game after throttling Wisconsin (and getting Paul Chryst fired). That’s tied with Iowa for third in the division behind the Gophers and the Boilermakers.
In the East, we now have three teams at 5-0 and none set to play one another until the 15th, when Michigan hosts Penn State. We talk a lot about the 11-1 path for teams in the Big Ten East and the SEC, but we’ll talk about it again here: Michigan and Penn State are in favorable positions. They have multiple paths. The same is true for Ohio State, though their eyes are watching more distant horizons.
The SEC: Speaking of 11-1…
Mississippi edged Kentucky in the next-in-line bowl, and Lane Kiffin’s team is far from a playoff contender (they’re 3.9% likely to make the cut), but aside from the visit from Alabama, it’s a lot of challenging games in which they should be favored: They play at LSU. They play at Texas A&M. They play at Arkansas. They host Mississippi State. That’s a tough lineup, and these guys could end up 8-4 without much crying, but they could also get to 11-1 with an impressive body of work.
One note here, before we get on to the rest of the league: Tennessee is virtually tied with Mississippi in playoff probability, despite having to play both Alabama and Georgia after this. What’s up? Tennessee’s 11-1 path is harder than Mississippi’s, but if they pull it off it’ll be a lot more impressive. Also, an 11-2 path with two losses to Alabama might be enough in certain scenarios to make the cut.
Now, the other games:
Texas A&M lost badly at Mississippi State, and while Movelor still has the Aggies in our top 25, this season is over for their highest goals. They’ve got two losses, their playoff probability is at 3-in-1,000, they might be able to recruit but they still can’t reliably win games. Different year, same story for the Jimbo Fisher era in College Station.
For Mississippi State, the game serves as a reminder that these guys are tough. Their only loss came against LSU, and LSU’s now 4-1 itself and threatening to really mess up the East over these next two weeks, hosting Tennessee before going to Gainesville. The Tigers didn’t look good on Saturday, trailing Auburn 17-0 before scoring 21 unanswered to survive, but playing at Auburn isn’t easy, and winning games when you play badly isn’t the worst skill to possess.
The Pac-12: We’re Getting Our Answer on USC
We’re now five USC games into the transfers-only experiment, and they’ve won all five, but Movelor isn’t alone in doubting the Trojans. After their comfortable but far-from-emphatic win over Arizona State, SP+ has them 27th, FPI has them 11th, and Movelor has them 30th. FPI’s the outlier there. Not us. And while FPI might turn out correct, 11th isn’t sensational. We’re close enough to Lincoln Riley’s trip to Salt Lake City that we can confidently say USC should not be favored to win that game. They certainly can win it, but until they do, they’re merely alive, not a contender by any stretch.
The same, incidentally, is true of UCLA, who beat a questionable Washington team at home on Friday to raise their playoff probability to 3.0% and their Movelor rating to just behind James Madison’s. The Bruins get Utah at home, and they get a week off before visiting Oregon, and they get USC at home down the line, but even that favorable path and the absence of a loss so far are unlikely to be enough.
Oregon is hanging around, jumping all over Stanford even if the final score made it look closer than the 31-3 halftime mark. Their loss wasn’t a conference loss, making them one of four conference undefeateds out west, and the second-likeliest of those four (behind Utah) to make the title game.
Undefeateds Keep Winning
In addition to Syracuse, Kansas, and TCU, both Coastal Carolina and James Madison stayed unbeaten, the former coming out on top after a 33-point, back-and-forth fourth quarter against Georgia Southern while the latter welcomed Texas State back to dealing with James Madison after a decade avoiding them in the FBS. JMU’s not postseason eligible, transitioning to Division I, but the top has gotten messy enough to get CCU up to 1-in-1,000 likely to crack the top four. We’re saying there’s a chance.
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Categories, playoff probabilities:
Playoff-Likely
- Alabama (83.3%)
- Georgia (77.3%)
- Ohio State (71.0%)
Contenders
- Michigan (49.0%)
- Oklahoma State (27.9%)
- Clemson (27.2%)
- Utah (24.0%)
Alive
- Penn State (6.7%)
- Tennessee (3.9%)
- Mississippi (3.9%)
- USC (3.5%)
- Minnesota (3.4%)
- UCLA (3.0%)
- Oregon (2.3%)
- North Carolina State (2.3%)
- Wake Forest (2.0%)
- North Carolina (1.2%)
- Kentucky (1.1%)
Undefeated
- TCU (0.8%)
- Syracuse (0.3%)
- Coastal Carolina (0.1%)
- Kansas (0.0%)
- James Madison (ineligible)
Cotton Bowl Candidates (Movelor Top-25 Teams with Too Many Losses, also known as The Big 12)
- Notre Dame (0.6%)
- Cincinnati (0.1%)
- Baylor (0.3%)
- Oklahoma (0.1%)
- Texas (0.4%)
- Kansas State (0.6%)
- Texas A&M (0.0%)
- Wisconsin (0.0%)
- Arkansas (0.0%)
- Iowa (0.0%)
- LSU (0.6%)
