Whooooooooooooooooooa boy.
Happy Saturday, you cats and dogs. What a Saturday it is. A WAC showdown that could decide the fate of the known world. A Big West showdown that could decide the fate of the known world. An Ivy League showdown that could decide the fate of the known world. I’ll let you guess how important the AAC semifinals are to avoiding nuclear war.
We’re going deeper than ever into the NIT implications here, but first, we have to clear a couple things up. Joe Stunardi, famous NIT bracketologist and handsome, mysterious man, has asked me to share that our model’s probably been underrating the uncertainty. So if something’s close to 100% or close to 0% and it’s not an automatic bid situation, maybe shave a couple percentage points off in your head. Not too many—don’t go all Sweeney Todd, the Demon Barber of Fleet Street—but a few.
Now. Conference by conference, in order of when it all goes down.
Yale and the Automatic Bid
- 11:00 AM EDT: Yale vs. Princeton (ESPNU)
This one’s already happening, but it’s straightforward, so I’m trusting you can figure it out on your own. While Yale would be in line for an at-large bid anyway, they’re also in line for an automatic bid. They don’t have to worry about what the committee thinks of them. The committee has to let them in. Even if they hate dogs! (Just kidding. Nobody on the NIT committee hates dogs. The NCAA T*urnament committee? That’s another story. You should see their buffet. Disgusting.)
Again, straightforward. Yale’s in with a loss. Win, and they get one more chance tomorrow, preferably against Cornell (because Cornell’s fun to watch and also because Cornell’s probably likelier to beat Yale).
| Team | NIT % w Win | NIT % w Loss |
| Yale | 26% | 99% |
Five-Bid A-10!
- 1:00 PM EDT: VCU vs. Loyola Chicago (CBSSN)
- 3:30 PM EDT: George Mason vs. Saint Joseph’s (CBSSN)
There’s still a chance at a six-bid or even seven-bid A-10, but it’d take a lot of opt-outs, and opt-outs are really, really, really not fun. You know who’s into opt-outs? “Basketball coaches” who don’t know how to coach basketball, like Jeff Capel. (Could’ve been meaner, Jeff! I was gonna call you a deviant, a freak, and a pervert. But I didn’t!)
These are interwoven—VCU winning makes the GMU/SJU winner NIT-likelier, GMU winning makes the VCU/LUC winner NIT-likelier, a sewer backup or raccoon infestation is always possible and could result in a doubleheader tomorrow—but at a high level, here’s where we’re at.
| Team | NIT % w Win | NIT % w Loss |
| VCU | 24% | 98% |
| Loyola Chicago | 61% | 94% |
| George Mason | 70% | 99% |
| Saint Joseph’s | 61% | 89% |
American the Beautiful
- 3:00 PM EDT: Memphis vs. Tulane (ESPN2)
- “5:00 PM EDT”: North Texas vs. UAB (ESPN2)
Let’s start with the Memphis game. If Memphis loses, UNC and Nebraska and Texas and San Diego State and Butler and Georgetown all see their NIT probabilities rise, either because their NCAA T*urnament probability decreases (yay!) or someone else is likelier to get pushed into those Crown spots Fox has entrenched through legal force (boo!). Our model’s overrating Ohio State’s NCAAT chances and probably Texas’s, too, so we can’t give you respectable numbers on these things, but hopefully these are respectable words.
Of course, if Memphis wins, it helps North Texas’s NIT chance. And if Memphis loses, it helps UAB’s NIT chance because it makes North Texas likelier to win the NIT. But in a world where we don’t know the Memphis result with certainty, here’s what happens with UNT and UAB. Give them to us. Give them both to us. Give us the 2023 national championship all over again. Give us the greatest rivalry the modern NIT has ever known.
| Team | NIT % w Win | NIT % w Loss |
| North Texas | 51% | 99% |
| UAB | 39% | 55% |
The NIT, Elevated
- 6:00 PM EDT: Colorado State vs. Boise State (CBS)
So, uh, THIS ONE’S PRETTY BIG DON’T YOU THINK??
Our model might be underrating Boise State’s NCAA T*urnament chances (sue us, we want what’s best for ‘em), but more likely, bracketologists are forgetting that the committee was Mountain West-skeptical last year and then saw the Mountain West throw itself on a bonfire in the NCAA T*urnament’s first round, a stirring display of unity with the NIT. This is probably an NIT play-in game, and you know what? San Diego State should be in the NIT too. They’re not getting enough credit for everything that happened after they beat Houston. Just because nobody remembers any of those games doesn’t mean they stopped playing. In fact, that’s exactly why they’re so important!
Sticking to Rams and Broncos:
| Team | NIT % w Win | NIT % w Loss |
| Colorado State | 0% | 99% |
| Boise State | 0% | 99% |
Pretty straightforward.
Automatic Akron
- 7:40 PM EDT: Akron vs. Miami Ohio (ESPN2)
Akron’s in the same boat as Yale, but they get the automatic bid today if they lose, not tomorrow. This is their last chance.
I don’t need to include this table but it’ll look weird if I don’t.
| Team | NIT % w Win | NIT % w Loss |
| Akron | 0% | 99% |
Party (?) in the USA
- 8:30 PM EDT: Liberty vs. Jacksonville State (CBSSN)
It depends who wins, of course.
Middle Tennessee’s in the mix here too. They get Conference USA’s exempt bid if Liberty doesn’t grab it.
| Team | Flames Win | Cocks Win |
| Liberty NIT % | 0% | 99% |
| MTSU NIT % | 99% | 21% |
| JSU NIT % | 1% | 0% |
The Humongous West
- 9:30 PM EDT: UC San Diego vs. UC Irvine (ESPN2)
I know a lot of people want two Big West teams in the NCAA T*urnament. This is because they hate mid-majors. To those of us with souls, that would be a disastrous outcome. Also, we kind of doubt it’s possible. But hey, our model isn’t perfect, so maybe it’s wrong.
Shoutout Northridge!
| Team | UCSD Wins | UCI Wins |
| UCSD NIT % | 0% | 99% |
| UCI NIT % | 99% | 0% |
| CSUN NIT % | 5% | 8% |
The WAC Is a Monster
- 11:30 PM EDT: Utah Valley vs. Grand Canyon (ESPN2)
Todd Phillips. Bryce Drew. The Green Men. Whatever that horde of Grand Canyon fans calls themselves. It’s the WAC, motherfuckers. It’s the WAC, motherfuckettes! It’s the WAC, all ye who love the game of basketball. It’s the WAC.
Utah Valley gets an automatic bid with a loss. Grand Canyon’s in the at-large mix if they go down.
| Team | NIT % w Win | NIT % w Loss |
| Utah Valley | 0% | 99% |
| Grand Canyon | 0% | 96% |
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