Rivalry Week, Week 13, the regular season finale…whatever you want to call it, it’s here. And it’s going to be a good one.
The Big Games (National)
Saturday, 12:00 PM EST: Michigan @ Ohio State (FOX)
Saturday, 12:00 PM EST: South Carolina @ Clemson (ABC)
Saturday, 3:30 PM EST: Oregon @ Oregon State (ABC)
Saturday, 3:30 PM EST: Auburn @ Alabama (CBS)
Saturday, 4:00 PM EST: Iowa State @ TCU (FOX)
Saturday, 6:00 PM EST: LSU @ Texas A&M (ESPN)
Saturday, 7:30 PM EST: Notre Dame @ USC (ABC)
Seven of ‘em. Eight if you count Georgia, which, where else are we going to put them, let’s count Georgia:
Saturday, 12:00 PM EST: Georgia Tech @ Georgia (ESPN)
Our model says nine teams have better than a 1-in-100 chance of making the College Football Playoff. Two of them play one another, but those are two that—while the game in Columbus is gigantic and important and will almost definitely lock the winner into the playoff field—are probably into the playoff already. Each is going to try to win, of course, but there’s an argument to be made that a conservative, time-burning approach that keeps the game close might be wise. Especially for Ohio State, who has proven more so far than Michigan has.
The bigger question for Michigan and Ohio State—in the lens of how the game will actually go, a cultural clash with stakes independent of any national title complex—is where Michigan is at as a program, and where Ohio State stands. This, along with the whole historical rivalry where both teams hate the shit out of each other thing, is why they will not employ the conservative, time-burning approach. A basic conception of the long-term college football hierarchy right now is that Georgia is in its own cut, and that Ohio State and Alabama are the next group down, and that Michigan is then alone in a third sphere, and from there you get into Clemson, LSU, Notre Dame, and half a dozen or a dozen other programs who aren’t consistent national title threats, but may believably be just a few steps away.
Last year, of course, Michigan bullied Ohio State. Michigan bullied Ohio State in Ann Arbor in the snow. There will be no snow in Columbus on Saturday—the forecast is for a beautiful, windless autumn day. But that almost makes the opportunity greater for Michigan. If the Wolverines can hang with Ohio State, the two are likely close. If the Wolverines can beat Ohio State, it’s hard to view the situation as anything but Michigan being ahead of Ohio State—still behind Alabama (meaning we have four top cuts instead of three)—but the kings of the Big Ten. If Ohio State beats up on Michigan, though, exacting its revenge…welcome back to Notre Dame-land, Coach Harbaugh. And for Ohio State, welcome back to comfortable prominence. There are questions about Ohio State’s national power under Ryan Day. A big win wouldn’t completely answer them, but it’d sure help.
The others, though: All playoffs, for the most part. Although I guess USC is trying to prove that it’s in the Clemson/LSU/Notre Dame group itself, and impressively ahead of schedule. With that, though…Notre Dame has struggled enough this season that USC beating the Irish this year wouldn’t be all that different from USC beating UCLA and hanging with Utah. Notre Dame is having a down year, USC’s at home, this isn’t the same existential clash as Michigan/Ohio State.
On the playoff side, it’s about style, and it’s about margin, and for TCU it’s mostly about survival but for everybody else it’s about running up the score. There are highly likely scenarios in which we still don’t know who makes the playoff field. Impressing isn’t just a luxury. It’s probably a necessity.
Adding to the drama, just about every underdog has a major chip on its shoulder. South Carolina has been trying all year to prove they’re a year or two away from national relevance, and that for one of the first times in their history, they’re ready to hang with the best in the SEC. With Clemson sliding, this is also a chance to claim some in-state dominance.
In-state dominance is the story as well for Oregon State, whom Oregon is very publicly trying to leave for higher ground as the floodwaters of conference realignment spread. Leagues, we’re learning, don’t last forever, but rivalries do, and a smack in the mouth on what might be the way out would leave a strong taste.
Auburn, of course, is in the badlands as a program, and Cadillac Williams is a compelling story but an unproven full-time coach. No questions about him or the school will be answered with an upset, but it’d sure give the fanbase something warm to hold through winter’s cold.
Iowa State, unfortunately…we’re in a rough spot. It was a terrifically frustrating season, one punctuated time and time again by terribly close losses. The program remains probably fine, but there’s no bowl game for the first time in a while and with the ever-present threat of Matt Campbell departing ever-present, it’d be nice to have it affirmed that the Cyclones aren’t far off the pace in the Big 12, and were more unlucky and/or chokers this year than an actual bad team.
Texas A&M, of course, is playing for some pride, arguably the biggest laughingstock in the country right now and needing some way to strike back. Beating LSU wouldn’t completely change the situation in College Station—LSU is playoff-relevant, but not playoff-likely, and we’re unsure if they’re really all that good—but again, a good closing taste.
Georgia Tech? Rallying, impressing, showing signs of life for the first time in forever. A program very much in transition, but potentially transitioning for the better. They are in the toughest situation this week, but that does give them the most to gain.
And finally, Notre Dame: Two or three plays earlier this year from this being an effective playoff quarterfinal for the Irish. One more chance for Marcus Freeman to show that this program hasn’t left, and merely had a few bad days.
Movelor views the probability of at least one of the seven non-Michigan, non-Ohio State contenders losing at 87%, and the expected number to lose at 1.6, meaning it’s likeliest we’ll see two go down. Which two? USC and Oregon are in the most danger, but TCU, LSU, and Clemson are far from safe. And in the Iron Bowl, who knows what happens?
The Big Ones (Conference)
Friday, 4:30 PM EST: UCLA @ Cal (FOX)
Saturday, 4:00 PM EST: Utah @ Colorado (P12N)
Saturday, 10:30 PM EST: Washington @ Washington State (ESPN)
The Pac-12 is wild, and while USC’s locked in, Utah and Washington and Oregon are all playing for the final spot, with UCLA a contributing character via some tiebreaker action. UCLA will clear up whether Utah has a chance or not by tomorrow night, and Oregon/Oregon State will then further decide whether the Apple Cup has conference-wide stakes. It doesn’t need them, but it’s always more fun when it does.
Friday, 12:00 PM EST: Baylor @ Texas (ESPN)
Saturday, 8:00 PM EST: Kansas @ Kansas State (FOX)
The Big 12 is more tame, but the order works out better in that Texas gets to play before they know if their game will make the difference in making the Big 12 Championship or missing it. They need a win and a K-State loss. K-State, for the first time in a long time, is under in-state pride threat from KU, as opposed to just one-off-upset threat.
Friday, 4:00 PM EST: Nebraska @ Iowa (BTN)
Saturday, 3:30 PM EST: Purdue @ Indiana (BTN)
Saturday, 3:30 PM EST: Illinois @ Northwestern (??)
The Big Ten West is up for grabs, but as with the Pac-12’s Oregon situation, Iowa is in with a win, so it could get wrapped up early.
Friday, 12:00 PM EST: Tulane @ Cincinnati (ABC)
Saturday, 7:00 PM EST: UCF @ USF (ESPN2)
In the final New Year’s Six-affecting affairs, we get to the AAC, where UCF is evidently still in with a win and would play the winner of Tulane/Cincy in the conference title game (the loser of that game is in if UCF loses).
Saturday, 12:00 PM EST: Coastal Carolina @ James Madison (ESPNU)
Saturday, 3:30 PM EST: Troy @ Arkansas State (ESPNU)
The Sun Belt has computers involved with its tiebreakers, so we might not exactly know what happens on Saturday, but I’d imagine the broadcasts spend plenty of time getting confused about it.
Saturday, 12:00 PM EST: Western Kentucky @ FAU (CBSSN)
Saturday, 2:00 PM EST: Rice @ North Texas (ESPN+)
Want to get deep? Conference USA has a title game spot available. North Texas holds the tiebreaker over WKU if it comes to that.
The Big Ones (Personal)
Thursday, 7:00 PM EST: Mississippi State @ Mississippi (ESPN)
Friday, 3:30 PM EST: North Carolina State @ UNC (ABC)
Friday, 7:30 PM EST: Florida @ Florida State (ABC)
Saturday, 3:00 PM EST: Louisville @ Kentucky (SECN)
Four in-state rivalries with solid teams. You don’t need the teams to be good for the rivalry to be good, but it does help. And it starts with the Egg Bowl tonight.
The Obligatory Two
Saturday, 4:00 PM EST: Michigan State @ Penn State (FS1)
Saturday, 7:30 PM EST: Tennessee @ Vanderbilt (SECN)
With Penn State and Tennessee each retaining a theoretical playoff shot as of now, we’re watching them as well.
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The concept of rivalry week is a great one, and most credit belongs to the ACC and SEC for annually making this work, with so many crossover rivalries between them. It helps when the playoff race is open. This playoff race is open. Let’s all have a really fun time.
