Is James Madison going to make a bowl game? Yes. Most likely, yes. Even if the NCAA does not make James Madison fully bowl-eligible, James Madison is upwards of 95% likely to make a bowl game. Here’s the situation:
Full Bowl Eligibility vs. Fill-In Status
JMU sent another waiver request to the NCAA last week, trying to earn something we’re calling “full bowl eligibility.” This is the same treatment every full FBS member gets, where winning six games is enough to make a bowl and the College Football Playoff selection committee will at least theoretically consider you for their top 25 (and for the Group of Five’s spot in the Cotton Bowl, Fiesta Bowl, or Peach Bowl). It’s unclear if JMU will or won’t get this, but that’s what they’re requesting, and it’s a step higher than what we’re calling “fill-in status.” It’s been widely reported that the NCAA’s rules allow transitioning FCS-to-FBS schools to fill in bowl slots if there aren’t enough eligible teams. In this scenario, which is the active scenario JMU can make a bowl, but it’s contingent upon there being 81 or fewer six-win FBS teams. Also, the Sun Belt won’t let JMU play in its championship, plus the CFP committee won’t rank the Dukes, so the Cotton Bowl, Fiesta Bowl, and Peach Bowl are currently off-limits.
How Many Bowl-Eligible Teams Will There Be?
One thing our college football model does rather well is account for JMU and Jacksonville State’s uncertain bowl status. In its “Bowl Eligibility” column, it gives the probability each team will reach six wins, and it also gives the probability of JMU and Jacksonville State (who’s in the same situation but isn’t quite as good) getting a nod by virtue of the rest of the FBS coming up short. At the moment, JMU’s bowl probability, per our model, is 98.3%. It is unlikely there will be a full 82 six-win FBS teams. In our model’s overnight simulations, the median number of six-win FBS teams came out to 77. Not only are JMU and Jacksonville State likely to make a bowl, but some 5–7 teams are probably going to get bowl invitations as well.
Who Should JMU Fans Cheer Against?
58 teams have already won six or more games. 40 more are still in the hunt, with Army and Buffalo also possibly retaining routes to bowl eligibility ahead of JMU. Army is ineligible because while they could technically get to six wins, the sixth would have to come against Navy after bowl matchups are determined. Also, two of the other five came against FCS opponents (only one FCS win can count towards bowl eligibility). Buffalo is ineligible at 3–7 even though they still have a chance to win the MAC Championship. At least Buffalo, though, would be ahead of JMU on the automatic waiver list if they reached six wins, provided the NCAA hasn’t changed their protocols since 2019. (Navy has a similar situation to Army in that if it finishes 5–6 and goes on to beat Army for its sixth win, it might not get a waiver.) So, 42 are really still in the hunt, and JMU needs 19 of them to lock in bowl ineligibility.
Here are the current three and four-win FBS teams who could still reach six wins, their probability of reaching six wins, and whom they play this week. There are 20 of them. If 19 were to lose, JMU would be in. With two games going on between pairs of these teams, though, at least two are guaranteed to win, so while JMU can get close, JMU cannot clinch a bowl spot this week through these teams losing alone.
- Army (see note above): vs. Coastal Carolina
- Buffalo (see note above): at Miami (OH)
- Navy (see Army note above): vs. East Carolina
- FIU (0.0%): at Arkansas
- Wake Forest (2.7%): at Notre Dame
- Colorado (3.0%): at Washington State
- Washington State (6.1%): vs. Colorado
- Hawaii (8.3%): at Wyoming
- Houston (9.3%): vs. Oklahoma State
- Florida Atlantic (14.2%): vs. Tulane
- Cal (18.1%): at Stanford
- TCU (18.5%): vs. Baylor
- Mississippi State (20.8%): vs. Southern Miss
- Old Dominion (21.6%): at Georgia Southern
- South Carolina (25.9%): vs. Kentucky
- Eastern Michigan (31.6%): vs. Akron
- Northern Illinois (34.4%): vs. Western Michigan
- Rice (37.6%): at Charlotte
- Western Michigan (39.8%): at Northern Illinois
- Colorado State (45.5%): vs. Nevada
Here are the current five-win FBS teams, their probability of reaching six wins, and who they play this week. These teams can’t become bowl-ineligible this week, but they can get to the doorstep. Again, there are a few games between teams in this group, so at least four teams will get to bowl eligibility, but the model accounts for that.
- BYU (23.6%): vs. Oklahoma
- Florida (34.9%): at Missouri
- Central Michigan (36.5%): at Ohio
- Georgia Tech (49.7%): vs. Syracuse
- Nebraska (51.2%): at Wisconsin
- Minnesota (52.2%): at Ohio State
- Arkansas State (63.7%): vs. Texas State
- Northwestern (67.1%): vs. Purdue
- Illinois (68.5%): at Iowa
- Marshall (71.0%): at South Alabama
- USF (71.5%): at UTSA
- Boise State (75.6%): at Utah State
- Virginia Tech (77.2%): vs. NC State
- Texas Tech (77.5%): vs. UCF
- Syracuse (79.5%): at Georgia Tech
- UCF (79.7%): at Texas Tech
- Wisconsin (81.6%): vs. Nebraska
- South Alabama (86.8%): vs. Marshall
- Louisiana (87.0%): at Troy
- San Jose State (90.9%): vs. San Diego State
- Utah State (91.3%): vs. Boise State
- Western Kentucky (98.0%): vs. Sam Houston
We said above that JMU can’t become bowl-eligible this week only through 6-loss teams taking a seventh loss. They can, though, reach bowl eligibility this week. It is very unlikely, but because of games on the schedule between bowl bubble teams *next* week, there is a path.
To clinch this week, JMU would need 17 of these 18 things to happen (two teams are guaranteed to be eliminated in Colorado vs. WSU and WMU vs. NIU, so JMU only needs 17 more guaranteed bowl-ineligible teams once you account for those two):
- Army loses OR Navy loses
- Buffalo loses
- FIU loses OR Western Kentucky loses
- Wake Forest loses OR Syracuse loses
- Hawaii loses
- Houston loses OR UCF loses
- Florida Atlantic loses
- Cal loses
- TCU loses
- Mississippi State loses
- Old Dominion loses
- South Carolina loses
- Eastern Michigan loses
- Rice loses
- Colorado State loses
- Minnesota loses AND Wisconsin loses
- Northwestern loses AND Illinois loses
- Arkansas State loses AND Marshall loses
It is very unlikely that JMU gets its desired results at a rate that high, but theoretically, JMU could clinch this week.
What Bowl Could James Madison Go To?
If the NCAA does grant JMU full bowl eligibility, playing in a New Year’s Six bowl is a definite possibility. Our model projects that the Dukes would be ranked 13th this week if eligible for the CFP Rankings, and while it’s possible it’s overestimating the committee’s perception of the Sun Belt (it thinks Troy would be effectively 29th, if we want to watch a proxy), it’s at the very least possible that JMU could outrank Tulane right now, and it’s more possible that an eventual hypothetical 13–0 JMU could outrank the AAC champions.
If the NCAA leaves JMU with their fill-in status, it’s unclear to me how the bowl selection process would work. Our understanding is that the New Orleans Bowl has the second pick of Sun Belt teams and the 68 Ventures bowl has the fifth pick, with ESPN–owned–and–operated bowls having the first, third, and fourth picks, plus any after and including sixth. We’re not 100% confident in this understanding, though, and we don’t know how much say the Sun Belt has in the order of its teams’ selection. Would the champion have to be selected before JMU? Would all other bowl-eligible Sun Belt teams have to be selected before JMU?
Our guess, given the financial incentives at stake for the bowls, the broadcasters, and (in a less direct way) the Sun Belt, is that in the scenario in which JMU and Liberty are both undefeated and Liberty doesn’t get the New Year’s Six nod, the bowl ecosystem would figure out a way to make JMU and Liberty play (our understanding is also that Conference USA has a tie-in with the New Orleans Bowl). If College Gameday thinks it’s worthwhile to go to Harrisonburg this weekend rather than Corvallis, ESPN thinks the undefeated Dukes have some brand value. I don’t think ESPN or the bowls want 12–0 James Madison playing a five or six-win team from the MAC, but it’s possible contracts and rules could lead us to that outcome. We will, of course, be watching it closely.
Note (11/13): This blog post has been updated to account for our better understanding of the bowl statuses of Army, Navy, and Buffalo, and to correct a very dumb math error for which we are very sorry.
Great article. I appreciate all of your hard work. I do have a question about the number of teams that need to lose to put JMU into a bowl game. If 58 teams are in, and there are 40/41 in the hunt, don’t more than 8 teams need to lose? It seems like the number should be 18. That way, only 22/23 additional teams could qualify, giving a total of 80/81. Looking at your list, it looks like there are only 17 games this week with teams that will lose bowl eligibility with a loss. So, if JMU needs 18 teams to fall out of the chase to become eligible, then that cannot happen this week. Please let me know if I am missing something.
Oh my gosh, thank you. I am so sorry. That was a bad simple math error on my part. You are correct and we’ve updated the post.