I was excited about the Joc Pederson signing yesterday. Pederson’s had some good years. He’s projected to be worth two wins. He crushes righties. The Cubs got him on the cheap.
I was less excited about the Nolan Arenado trade.
With Arenado, the Cardinals are getting a projected four-win player. They didn’t have to give up a whole lot to get him. His upside is astronomical. This makes the Cardinals better than they were. The Cardinals being better than they were is bad news for the Cubs.
And yet, how good are the Cardinals, really?
FanGraphs, right now, having not put Arenado on the Cardinals or taken away those the Cardinals are reportedly trading for him, has the projected WAR by team in the division as follows:
| Brewers | 28.3 |
| Cardinals | 25.9 |
| Cubs | 25.7 |
| Reds | 23.4 |
| Pirates | 12.8 |
Add three wins to the Cardinals (gain four from Arenado, lose one from Gomber and lowered PA’s for other hitters) and yes, the Cardinals are ahead of the Brewers, but it isn’t by much. And their lead on the Cubs is still projected at only…three games.
Of course, there’s more offseason to go. But will the Cardinals really add? Yadier Molina’s not expected to be much better than Andrew Knizner. The bigger risk, for those of us clinging to hopes of the Cubs at least being competitive this year in a terrible division (I’m not against a rebuild, but the market doesn’t appear to be there to do it efficiently, and if you can win the division it seems like you could make some money, which is evidently the issue here), is that the Cubs will make a cheap sale of an important piece (or more than one important piece).
Will they do it? It’s hard to say. The reason it hasn’t happened yet is that their asking price hasn’t been met. But what if the asking price comes down? What if there’s an order from Todd Ricketts to sell, no matter the return? The Pederson signing is encouraging, but it’s a cheap, one-year deal. It might be a hole-patch to make 2021 tolerable and protect fringe AAA prospects from getting wrecked, and not an earnest value play on a solid outfield bat. The most probable thing’s that it’s both, but it’s not a reassuring move by any stretch.
The long and short of all of this is that the Cubs are still not out of contention in the 2021 NL Central. The Arenado trade hurts, but doesn’t kill. The Pederson signing helps, but doesn’t save. Give up a piece of the core, and yes, the Cubs start getting close to the Orioles in quality. Give up two pieces and the division’s a lost cause. But for the moment, even with one of the less mediocre teams in the mix getting one of the best players in the game, the Cubs could still earn a division series berth without it being a huge surprise. For whatever that’s worth.
