The Canadiens grabbed a win last night, and while it took overtime to do so, they grabbed a win last night.
The odds are still stacked firmly against them. Our NHL model only has them 7.3% likely to sweep these next three games and lift the Stanley Cup, which is about a one-in-thirteen or one-in-fourteen probability—so roughly your chance of drawing an ace out of a full, shuffled deck of cards that still has the jokers in. But, they still have a chance, and that’s better for them than the alternative. Meanwhile, the Lightning will try to clinch it at home tomorrow night. The pressure, it would seem, is still on Montreal. And for those curious if our model still overrates the Montreal chances relative to the market, the 2:1 ratio of remaining potential games in Tampa:remaining potential games in Montreal has lessened that phenomenon for the time being.
