Every first round series in the Stanley Cup Playoffs is through four games, which makes this a convenient time to check in on the broader playoff picture. We will, of course, be using our Gelo model for this.
Some categories, separated by Gelo’s Stanley Cup probabilities:
It’s Over: Panthers (0.5% Stanley Cup probability), Islanders (0.3%), Lightning (0.3%), Jets (0.2%)
It’s possible one of these teams will come back this round, despite being down 3–1. Gelo thinks it’s not all that unlikely, putting the probability around 22%, or at about 2-in-9. The probability any of them get out and then win their second round series and then win their conference finals and then win the Stanley Cup? Much less likely. Gelo puts the chance one of these four even makes the Stanley Cup Finals at just 3%, or 1-in-33. They’re graded as four of the five worst teams in the playoff field, and they’ve played accordingly.
No Reason to Believe: Kraken (2.3%), Wild (2.3%)
There is, of course, reason to believe if you’re a fan of any team, and that reason is that believing is fun. It’s part of what makes sports what they are. Still, even just needing to take two of three to get through to the second round, both the Kraken and the Wild have a likely insurmountable path ahead. They’re about as good as the four above. They’ve just managed to win one more game so far.
The Kings: Kings (3.4%)
The Kings are the weird one. Rating-wise, they’re up around the Hurricanes. In terms of performance so far, they’re tied two games to two.
The problem for the Kings is that they’re playing the Oilers, whom Gelo sees as the best team in the Western Conference. It’s a bad path.
Hanging Around: Devils (4.8%), Stars (4.8%), Rangers (4.4%)
Now we’re getting somewhere.
I would hazard a guess that home-ice advantage means the least in this Rangers/Devils series, not because the crowds are bad but because some unknown piece of home-ice advantage comes from day-to-day routine and the comforts of home. Still, the Rangers really flubbed this. They won the first two games of this series away from home and are now not only tied but have lost home-ice advantage. That leaves them in the same spot probability-wise as the Devils and the Stars, two teams who aren’t a lot worse than them, but are probably a little worse.
Something to Prove: Avalanche (8.2%), Hurricanes (8.0%)
Gelo has the Avalanche as the third-best team in hockey, a far cry from just a month or two ago when all six of Gelo’s best teams in hockey played in the Eastern Conference. They’re struggling to put away Seattle, though, with that series now more likely than not to go seven games.
The Hurricanes have the opposite problem. They’re up three to one, they’ve got a great path, and they just don’t grade out as being all that good. They’re strong defensively, per Gelo—they’re rated the third-best defensive team in the playoffs—but their offense is merely average. Scoring is going to be the issue, and it’s also just really hard to get out of the East given how much better the Bruins are than everybody else.
The Challengers: Oilers (10.6%), Golden Knights (10.4%), Maple Leafs (10.3%)
It’s a good year to be cursed?
That feels like something that would be said right before the Leafs blow a 3–1 lead.
We are, to put it on the table, living in a world where there’s a one in five chance Canada finally gets another Stanley Cup. Two of the four likeliest teams to raise it come from north of the border. They’re both electric, too—two of the three best offensive teams in the field, which makes nights like last night so believable out of the Torontonians. In other words, it would be very fun for a casual observer if either the Leafs or the Oilers wins the Stanley Cup, and there isn’t a good chance that happens, but there’s a 3-in-8 chance one at least makes the Finals, and that’ll rise to around 50/50 if both can win their first round series here.
Don’t neglect the Knights, either. Gelo has them as the fifth-best team in this, and their path isn’t great but it will be if the Kings knock off Edmonton. Huge stint in Winnipeg out of those guys. They really seized a moment.
The Favorite: Bruins (29.1%)
It’s important to put this number in context.
The Bruins are the overwhelming Stanley Cup favorite. They are almost three times as likely to win the Stanley Cup as any other individual team. They are the best team in hockey by a wide margin, with the best defense in hockey by a substantial sum. They’re capable of going cold, but games like Game 2, in which they allowed five goals even before the empty-netter, are few and far between. They only gave up six goals twice in the regular season. The Oilers—the Western Conference favorite, according to some—gave up six goals twice in March alone.
On the other hand, though, the Bruins are overwhelmingly favored to not win the Stanley Cup. It is more than twice as likely that someone else lifts the Cup than it is that the Bruins get it done.
This is part of the deal with hockey, just like it’s part of the deal with baseball. You can be miles and miles better than everyone else, but you still have to find a way to win the games. It’s a little bit of a secret about each of those two sports, and about college basketball as well. They aren’t just about being the best. They’re also about being capable of playing your good game or your great game in the games when you need to be good or great. Can the Bruins do that? They’re experienced. Their bad game isn’t very bad. But it’s a tall task, and that’s what keeps us watching.
