A popular argument against playoff expansion in college football is this: “College football already has an expanded playoff. It’s called the regular season.” It’s simplistic, but it’s a worthwhile discussion. Spend a season or two keeping up with the FCS level of things, and you’ll find that regular season losses really do carry less weight for top teams when the playoff is of a certain size. The losses still matter—we aren’t down to NFL resting-starters scenarios—but the tightrope has been expanded to a narrow bridge. There’s room for a couple missteps.
At the same time, though, more games do matter under an expanded playoff, which is the contrary argument. Between making a bowl game and making the current, four-team playoff, there’s a vast no-man’s land inhabited by games between good teams with little to play for. This is the tradeoff. But in what may be the four-team playoff’s final year, there’s something magical about this weekend, where as many as seven games have clear, existential playoff implications. What a day we have ahead of us tomorrow.
The Great Ones
Alabama @ Tennessee
Penn State @ Michigan
USC @ Utah
Three matchups this week between teams with at least a three percent chance of making the College Football Playoff, per our model. We’ll go through them in order of grandeur.
Tennessee is trying to have a moment. Movelor has them ranked twelfth, they’re clearly a good team, but between this and the Georgia game and tricky ones against Kentucky and South Carolina, the Volunteers are a few losses away from being a few years away again. Josh Heupel appears to have resurrected the program in Knoxville, but we’ve seen plenty of 5-0 teams flame out, and even last year’s team—which represented such a significant step forward—finished the year merely a game above .500. It’s the best shot a team could request to make their case as a national power, playing the sport’s current dynasty at home. Even with that, the Vols are seven-point underdogs, and the probability of a beatdown is far from zero.
Across the field of play, all eyes are on Bryce Young. The reigning Heisman winner missed last week’s escape from Texas A&M, dressing and warming up but not entering the game as his shoulder heals from an AC sprain. Without him, Alabama appears to be a susceptible team. With him, they’ve had their struggles in road games.
Alabama does have a loss to give, so to speak, though it’s not quite that simple. The Tide still play at Mississippi, not to mention LSU and at home against Mississippi State. They’ve also got the SEC Championship on their itinerary, though it’s yet to be a guaranteed trip. Lose this week, and the margin for error disappears, but there’s a margin for error. They could lose this game and still stand clearly atop the SEC West in division title probability, and a one-loss SEC team? That’s probably a playoff résumé right there.
On that topic, though: If Tennessee wins, they might be in. We mentioned those remaining tests, but if the Volunteers can beat Alabama, they should be able to beat Kentucky and South Carolina, and if they lose to Georgia, they’re looking at a potential 11-1 finish without the necessity of playing Alabama again (or Mississippi) in the SEC Championship. Tennessee has two playoff paths: The first requires beating Alabama and getting just a touch of help (a touch which is likely to come, which is why Tennessee’s one-in-ten likely to make the playoff despite Movelor viewing them as a 13-point underdog). The second requires beating Georgia and winning the SEC Championship. The first is easier. This is something of a play-in game for Tennessee.
In the Big Ten, the nation’s second conference, Penn State and Michigan play for the right to be in the exact same position Tennessee’s seeking, that of holding a clear path to 11-1 against a schedule which makes 11-1 mean something. The winner of this game does not have to beat Ohio State to have a good playoff shot. It’s not as strong a path as Tennessee’s from here, but it’s a good one. Especially if Tennessee loses.
Penn State made a lot of noise to start the year, escaping Purdue two weeks before obliterating Auburn on the plains, but they’ve been quieter of late, held in check offensively by Northwestern in the rain and then taking a week off. Michigan, meanwhile, hit a speed bump when Big Ten play began but is still yet to face a situation where they were a live underdog this year. They may not have blown out Maryland or Iowa or Indiana, but they controlled those games, and having made the playoff last year, and having an easier remaining schedule than Tennessee, Penn State, or Mississippi (the other clear 11-1 possibility), the Wolverines are the team-in-waiting in the national landscape. If (and probably when) the Pac-12, Big 12, and ACC leaders all lose undefeated status, it’s Jim Harbaugh waiting in the wings. Unless James Franklin’s team changes that.
Out west, USC plays Utah in Salt Lake City, and at long last, we should get our answer about the legitimacy of the former.
To date, USC has accomplished the following since last season ended:
- Hired a previously successful coach whose success came in a different situation than USC’s.
- Brought in a lot of talent through the transfer portal.
- Won six games and lost zero against a schedule featuring nobody currently ranked better than 40th by Movelor.
It’s a mid-major kind of script, even if USC’s prior glories make it feel like something greater. Often, West Coast teams can fly under the radar through the comic reality that talking heads go to bed before they play (this is worse in college basketball, but it happens a bit with football as well). Here, the reverse seems to be happening. Nobody seems to notice that USC’s struggled to put away four fine-not-good teams in Pac-12 play. They only led by a field goal midway through the third last week against Wazzu. They only led by four midway through the third two weeks ago against ASU. Oregon State held Caleb Williams to 207 total yards and forced the Trojans to pull a rabbit out of a hat in Corvallis. Stanford’s not going to make a bowl game. Fresno State lost to UConn a couple weeks back.
USC has little control over the quality of their opponents (they actually have a lot of control, which is why they’re going to the Big Ten, but I’m saying the strength of schedule isn’t really their fault). They do, however, have control over how well they play. And things like their yards per play, their game control, and other indicators of their true strength make their AP Poll ranking appear downright silly. James Madison might be a better team than USC.
This is the read on the Trojans coming in. They could prove the naysayers (us) loudly wrong.
The thing about Utah is that they’re probably still a good team, even if they have at least one bad loss, and possibly two. As has often been the case with these guys in recent years, early-season mistakes have been too many, but the overall projection is strong. They are still, per Movelor, the Pac-12 favorite. And it’s not particularly close. Their playoff path is dubious—it probably requires a two-loss champion in the Big 12 (likely), a two-loss champion in the ACC (unlikely), and at least three of Mississippi/Tennessee/Penn State/Michigan picking up an extra loss (likely)—but they’re a good team, and this is a good test for USC, and if USC pulls out the victory, we can go ahead and give them their hype. They won’t be a national championship contender—they’d have to beat UCLA and Notre Dame by a combined sixty to be a national championship contender—but win this game, and their playoff chance becomes strong.
The Good Ones
Oklahoma State @ TCU
Clemson @ Florida State
Minnesota @ Illinois
TCU is undefeated. TCU walloped Oklahoma. TCU has a 1-in-200 playoff chance and is viewed by Movelor to be worse than Washington State.
The way Movelor—our model’s rating system—works places high importance on where a team finished the last season. Notre Dame is still ninth, in Movelor’s eyes. UCLA is only 24th. The thing about this seeming errancy, though, is that the system as a whole performs rather well over back-testing. We don’t have specific back-testing on ratings that “look weird,” but on the whole, the system works well, which is part of why we’ve rolled our eyes so hard at USC and part of why we’re rolling them now at the Horned Frogs. These guys beat SMU by a touchdown. These guys beat Kansas by a touchdown. These guys are going to finish fifth in the Big 12.
But, this weekend, they’ve got a playoff contender at home, and while betting markets often agree with us on USC, they disagree on TCU. That, or they really don’t like Oklahoma State. Movelor does love Oklahoma State.
It’s the battle to be the last undefeated standing in the Big 12, and it’s a chance for TCU to prove themselves, and it’s a chance for Oklahoma State to make an Oklahoma Statement. The Big 12’s playoff chances are in tatters, and Texas looms, trying to downright shred them. But if Oklahoma State gets through this one, the league’s in the clear for another week, and if TCU smokes the Pokes, I guess the same is true as well.
You wanna know the name of a dormant power who’s better than USC? Texas. But Florida State isn’t bad.
Movelor hates Clemson (we kind of do too, to be honest, but that’s moral, not mathematical). Still, it’s higher on the Tigers as they go to Tallahassee than betting markets are. Clemson’s only favored by a field goal or a little more against a team yet to beat anyone in the top 35. Movelor has it a seven-point spread.
Clemson, like USC, has put together a résumé like that of a homeschool valedictorian. The top line looks fine, but the accomplishments below it are largely meaningless. Movelor ranks five SEC teams ahead of Wake Forest. Movelor ranks five Big Ten teams ahead of Wake Forest. Movelor ranks five Big 12 teams ahead of Wake Forest. The ACC is bad, and Clemson’s already beaten the best parts of it.
This is remedied, to an extent, by Clemson’s upcoming trip to Indiana to play Notre Dame. Clemson might not play a top-15 team this season, but between Wake and NC State and Notre Dame, they’ve got a few opponents who’ll probably finish in or at least around the top 25. But Notre Dame is not in the ACC. That is not a conference game. This is, and if Clemson wins it, they’re one win away (for practical purposes) from clinching a spot in the ACC title game. Aside from the Notre Dame game and mayyyyyybe the ACC Championship, this is Clemson’s biggest remaining test before the playoff. Where Ohio State or Alabama or Georgia will, we would assume, pulverize them.
In the Big Ten West, we’ve quietly got quite the ballgame. Minnesota lost to Purdue, but it was only one loss and Purdue’s a Wake Forest-quality team. Illinois lost to Indiana, but they’ve gotten their act together since. These are not the two best teams in the Big Ten West—at the very least, Purdue is between the Gophers and the Illini—but they’re close enough that this has a lot of leverage in the division chase, and with each facing challenges the rest of the way but only one major underdog situation apiece (Minnesota goes to State College, Illinois goes to Ann Arbor), the winner of this one has a clear path to being a main character. It’s doubtful either will capitalize on that path, but it’s there if they can pull it off.
Syracuse
NC State @ Syracuse
Syracuse, like TCU, is 5-0. Syracuse, like TCU, ain’t done shit.
That isn’t entirely fair to either. TCU, as we said, blew out Oklahoma, and we just treated Purdue with respect so we can’t ignore Syracuse beating the Boilermakers by a field goal one week before they almost lost to Virginia at home.
Maybe we’re wrong. Maybe Movelor’s wrong. Maybe Syracuse is a good team. Betting markets do have them favored over the Wolfpack, with the game in whatever they’re calling the Carrier Dome these days. But this isn’t a game with playoff implications, and even if the Orange win, it’s hard to call next week’s date with Clemson a game with playoff implications either. Yes, of course, it matters. But Movelor has Syracuse as an underdog in each of their next six games, and I believe it.
Games of Consequence
Georgia vs. Vanderbilt
Mississippi vs. Auburn
Texas vs. Iowa State
North Carolina @ Duke
Ohio State, UCLA, and Oregon are all idle this weekend, but Georgia and Mississippi each face an SEC bottom feeder at home as they try to stay undefeated. Surging Texas draws reeling Iowa State in Austin, and if I was not an Iowa State person I would say this has the markings of a college football course correction, but instead I’ll say that Texas is probably the best team in the Big 12 and because Quinn Ewers was hurt for the Texas Tech loss, they’re probably a playoff team if they make it through the rest of the gauntlet unscathed. North Carolina has a funny little playoff shot, sitting at 5-1 with a fine loss, little remaining competition in the Coastal Division, and some opportunities to build a case the rest of the way (at Wake Forest, home against NC State, a neutral-site game probably against Clemson in the ACC Championship).
Games of Interest
Mississippi State @ Kentucky
James Madison @ Georgia Southern
Coastal Carolina vs. Old Dominion
Notre Dame vs. Stanford
Kansas @ Oklahoma
Arkansas @ BYU
LSU @ Florida
Wisconsin @ Michigan State
Nebraska @ Purdue
We could probably have included Baylor at West Virginia on this list, because every Big 12 game is interesting right now, but it already happened so we’ll keep the total games-of-note count for the week at a clean twenty. Mississippi State only has one loss, and it isn’t a spectacular one (it came against LSU on the road), but they have some fun opportunities to play spoiler, so we’re interested in them. James Madison and Coastal Carolina remain undefeated, and James Madison is probably good. I don’t think the committee would do this, but on the minute chance Notre Dame wins out, beating Clemson and USC, they could have one great loss (at Ohio State), two good wins (at USC, home against Clemson), and one terrible loss that—and this is the leap I don’t think the committee would take, but we don’t have precedent so it’s hard to know—came with a different quarterback than the one who’d have started all ten of their wins. Again, don’t think the committee would do it, but if it came down to a three-loss Big 12 champion, Clemson, USC, and a 10-2 Notre Dame for the final spot? It’s not unbelievable. Kansas lost Jalon Daniels for the season, but Oklahoma’s looked so bad that we can’t take our eyes away from Norman. LSU and Florida have some of that Big 12 effect going on where it just looks like a good game, even if it’s mostly meaningless nationally. The same is true of Arkansas and BYU. The Big Ten West being so wide open means we kind of have to keep paying attention to teams who could win it, and that list includes Wisconsin, Purdue, and who knows I mean Nebraska does get Minnesota, Illinois, and Wisconsin all at home.
The headliners are the best they’ve been all year. The undercard is thin, but it isn’t bad. Tomorrow should be a lot of fun. For exactly fifty percent of these teams.
