The NIT Bracketology updated this morning. Here’s the NITuation:
Movin’ Out (Anthony’s Song): Wichita State, SMU, Penn State, Winthrop (auto-bid), St. John’s, Notre Dame, Georgia, North Texas, Vermont (auto-bid)
Lot of movement here. Notre Dame blew a 20-point lead at Syracuse. St. John’s lost to DePaul. Wichita State, SMU, and Penn State all rose out of the field. Georgia and North Texas got passed. Winthrop’s too likely to win the Big South Tournament. Vermont lost the A-East regular season race.
Moving In: Drake, Indiana, Xavier, Saint Louis, Kentucky, Michigan State, Davidson, UMBC (auto-bid), Cleveland State (auto-bid)
Cleveland State did it! We’ll see whether automatic bids are a thing (sounds like they aren’t), but the Horizon League mystery turned out well for the Vikings, and therefore well for the HoLo’s auto-bid streak.
Indiana took a bad loss to Michigan State, which was a good win for the latter. Both enter the field. Kentucky’s got .500 concerns (unclear if those are a thing this year or ever, but being as far below as they are especially hurts), but they did whoop Tennessee in Knoxville, and that helped them. Davidson entered the mix as we clarified the A-10 picture in our model. Xavier slid on in, as did Drake. UMBC won the A-East.
Teams on NIT Turf Who Are Too Likely to Win Their Conference Tournament
Winthrop would be a 4-seed. Marshall would be a 5-seed.
The Sixteen
Since the field’s expected to be just sixteen teams big, here’s who we’re looking at:
1. Drake
2. Indiana
3. Western Kentucky
4. UConn
5. Georgia Tech
6. UC-Santa Barbara
7. Xavier
8. Stanford
9. Richmond
10. Belmont
11. Syracuse
12. Saint Louis
13. Duke
14. Memphis
15. Toledo
16. Saint Mary’s
Next in Line:
Here, then, would be the low bubble, from closest to close:
Navy
Utah State
Mississippi
Louisiana Tech
Kentucky
Michigan State
Davidson
St. John’s
Dayton
Georgia
Notre Dame
North Texas
From the Other Side:
And then above, again from closest to close:
SMU
Seton Hall
Colgate
Minnesota
St. Bonaventure
Penn State
Wichita State
Colorado State
North Carolina
Louisville
Maryland
Florida
***
And that’s the NITuation.
Other notes for today:
- Duke’s victory over Virginia was the story yesterday, and it makes sense that it was: Without it, the Blue Devils would’ve really been in trouble. They needed a good win like that one.
- Minnesota did all they could, getting rolled without objection by Illinois. But it wasn’t enough. They’re still projected above the cut line.
- Louisville’s got an eye on us. UNC’s playing hard to get.
- Syracuse and Notre Dame both needed that win. Syracuse got it.
- UConn avoided a good (bad) win at Villanova. Gonna be a lot of sad UConn fans if this historic year for them ends in Indiana instead of New York.
- Seton Hall lost to Georgetown. Not dead yet.
- It took three overtimes, but Stanford grabbed a crucial loss at Washington State.
- Tough one for Mississippi, falling to Mississippi State. That’s what siblings do. Ruin each other’s lives (sorry I’ve been watching The Lion King again).
- UCLA missed a great opportunity. Man.
- Davidson’s playing the Bonnies right now. No idea how it’s going but that’s big.
- Penn State plays Iowa in a bit, and I don’t know if there’s anything PSU can do. Win too much and you miss the NIT. Lose too much and they say, “You’re eight games under .500. Get out of here,” even if you probably deserve to be there.
- Xavier hosts Butler tonight. Nothing to lose.
