Our college football model is live. Here’s what it has to say:
Clemson and Alabama Are Still on Top
Our model deems it over 80% likely that one of these two teams is going to win the national championship. The betting public isn’t as confident in their chances, but it’s possible our model is correct in placing these odds so high.
For Clemson, the toughest game until the national semifinal will probably come tomorrow against Texas A&M, and they’re a 17-point favorite in that one. The ACC, by the looks of it, is a weak league. Beyond the best team, it’s the worst of the Power Five. But that best team is very good, which should mask a lot of flaws for the league’s reputation.
Alabama’s path is tougher, with Texas A&M on the road, LSU at home, and Auburn on the road, in addition to a more difficult opponent in the conference championship, should they qualify. But it’s unlikely we’ll see three undefeated Power Five (plus Notre Dame) teams as we did last year, and if Alabama loses a regular season game to a conference opponent but wins the SEC, it’s hard to imagine them being left out. They have a large margin for error.
The Top of the SEC Is Strong
As recently as 2016, there were ample reasons for SEC fans to be concerned about their dominance of the sport. Only Alabama finished in the top 12 of the AP Poll. Clemson won the national championship. Oklahoma dispatched Auburn rather easily in the Sugar Bowl. Florida State handily defeated Florida. Beyond Alabama, only LSU had a particularly strong bowl performance, and they’d opened the year losing to Wisconsin in Green Bay.
But the SEC didn’t stay down long, providing college football with its national champion and runner-up the next season. Now, it looks to be back in full force.
The SEC offers a few contenders for 2019’s choosing. Three of our model’s four most likely champions are SEC schools, and six of the 18 who won at least one national championship in our 1,000 simulations today hail from the league (this might not mean much—with only 1,000 simulations, more is left to chance, which is why we’re working on increasing the number of sim’s going forward). While Pac-12, Big Ten, and Big 12 teams often see poorer playoff odds than conference championship odds in our simulations, SEC teams see the opposite trend by a wide margin—especially SEC West teams Alabama and LSU.
Is Penn State the Big Ten Favorite?
Ohio State comes out in a good spot in our model, but not as good a spot as they do in the market. The same can be said of Michigan, which is about even with Ohio State as far as national championship odds go. But Penn State, which narrowly edges its Big Ten East brethren in our model, sits well below the pair on Vegas boards.
A lot of this is likely the result of scheduling. Against the Big Ten West, Penn State plays Purdue at home, Iowa on the road, and Minnesota on the road. Michigan gets a relative layup with Illinois on the road but has to host Iowa and travel to Wisconsin. Ohio State draws Northwestern and Nebraska on the road and Wisconsin at home.
Not playing Wisconsin is good for Penn State, which shouldn’t find itself needing that additional quality win if they’re in the playoff discussion. Not playing Nebraska probably also helps. Playing at Iowa is not easy. But it’s better than a few of the alternatives.
Overall, the Big Ten is in a solid place. While it doesn’t have any of the five most likely teams to make the playoff, it has three in the top eight and four in the top ten, giving it a diverse portfolio from which one one-loss team would probably be all it would take to earn a spot.
The Big 12 Is Just Oklahoma and Texas Again
This header is probably a little unfair to Oklahoma State and the rest of the league’s non-Kansas members, but in over 80% of simulations, either the Sooners or the Longhorns win the Big 12. At this point, Oklahoma’s the conference’s preferred champion, as it’s less likely to stumble in non-conference play, but if Texas pulls off the home upset of LSU tomorrow, they can almost certainly lose one game and make the field with a conference title.
The Pac-12 Needs Some Luck
The Pac-12 has the worst chance of putting a team in the playoff out of the Power Five conferences. Washington (12.1%) and Utah (5.2%) each have a shot, and the path is certainly there for Washington State and even one-loss Oregon, but as a whole, the league is in the worst position of the five.
Again.
Notre Dame’s Schedule Might Be Too Difficult. Or Not Difficult Enough.
Notre Dame is, according to their combined rating, the ninth-best team in our model. But they have only the 11th-best chance of making the playoff. A lot of this is because they can’t win a conference championship, which figures to hold them back unless they get credit for one by doing something like beating a conference champion (I don’t know if this would happen, but it’s possible the committee would view things this way). Some of it is because of their schedule.
Notre Dame’s schedule is a funny thing. Without a conference championship game, they aren’t guaranteed a top-35 opponent (probably better, but that’s been the effective cutoff) like other playoff contenders. Because of this, there’s always the risk that teams that look like great opponents before the season (or years earlier, when the game’s scheduled) turn out to be duds. On the other side, there’s the risk that they’ll finish the year having played two playoff participants on the road. And because the regular season’s only twelve games long, these risks are correlated. Notre Dame beating Michigan or Georgia increases the likelihood of each being a “dud.”
There’s a lot to be said for Notre Dame’s current approach as a marketing model. And as last year showed, they can make the playoff without winning a conference title. But they’re still at the mercy of more chance than their competitors, who have the natural sorting of conference standings and the safety net of a championship game to hold things steady.
UCF and Boise State Are the Group of Five’s Best Hopes
Cincinnati, Memphis, and Appalachian State each made the playoff in exactly one of today’s simulations, but that isn’t saying much. Instead, it looks like UCF and Boise State are the only two with real shots, and neither of those shots looks great. Both likely rely on a particular Power Five opponent (Stanford for UCF, Florida State for Boise State) having a tremendous year while multiple Power Five champions and Notre Dame accumulate multiple losses. Even then, it would take a favorable glance from the committee, or a lot of outside pressure, to get one of these two in. And that’s assuming they accomplish the hardest part of the deal and win all their games.
