Kurt Kitayama did not have the best first round today at the Masters. It happens. He’s three over par, having bogeyed the last two holes to fall behind what would currently be the cut line. He looked pretty frustrated on the last missed putt. Just means tomorrow’s surge is going to be that much more dramatic.
I discovered Kurt Kitayama yesterday afternoon. I thought to myself, “It would be fun to bet on someone to win the Masters.” This created a problem: On whom should I bet? The solution was simple, and was one I’d used just nine months ago to break even on betting for the British Open:
Go down the World Golf Rankings until I found an American who 1) had odds longer than his ranking would have them and 2) had a name I had never heard.
Last year, this got me Sam Burns for the British Open. I took him to make the cut, then used those winnings to bet on him to win. He did not win. It was probably a bad strategy. Picking an unknown name—unknown to me, a man who follows very little golf—on a make the cut/win the tournament combo is the kind of thing that will more often lose a little money than make a lot, because missing the cut is a lot likelier than winning the tournament at these things. Still, Tin Cup taught me that if you want to play golf with pride, you have to be recklessly aggressive, and that’s something I’m comfortable being from time to time.
Which brought me to Kurt Kitayama.
I did take a slightly different path this time—I took Burns to finish in the top ten in the first round, because without having done this before, I still wouldn’t have heard of him, and I took Kitayama to win the tournament straight up. No bet on him making the cut. Right now, that looks pretty smart of me. Right now, it looks like he’s missing the cut.
Another difference? I did a Wikipedia check. Found out Kitayama’s 30 years old, playing in his first Masters, and was a good point guard in high school. Having been told by a podcast one hour before I placed the bet that rookies do poorly in the Masters, I immediately went contrary to that advice, because I am a sucker for a point guard and I don’t believe you can be a rookie at anything if you’re a professional athlete past the age of 29. If you are, they make a movie about it, and they call it The Rookie. That’s how outlandish it is.
Thankfully for you, the reader, the odds on Kitayama are even longer today than they were yesterday. You’re getting him at a discount. Don’t forget to thank me before you call your realtor on Monday.
What’s Up With Joe Kelly’s Stats?
Joe Kelly had his second outing of the year yesterday. It went a lot like the first. Two earned runs this time, and one walk was issued, but he struck a batter out in an inning of work and he didn’t allow any severe contact. His very-small-sample ERA is now 13.50, while his also-small-sample xERA and FIP are 2.76 and 2.70. Those last two are supposed to mean a lot more. Good luck explaining that to idiots on the internet.
This happened with Joe Kelly last year, too, which is why there’s a concern. Last year, he finished with a 6.08 ERA despite having an xERA and FIP close to 3.00. What does all this mean? xERA measures what should happen based on how many strikeouts and walks you rack up and how well guys are hitting the ball. FIP measures what should happen based on how many strikeouts and walks you rack up and how many home runs you allow. Basically, xERA and FIP measure how good of a pitcher you are, while ERA measures what’s happening when you pitch. Those aren’t exactly the same things.
I’m going to have to go back and watch the tape, but I’m still not convinced that this isn’t the White Sox’ defense. This was a concern when Joe Kelly joined the White Sox—not that the defense specifically would stink, but that the White Sox’ stinkiness would stink. They’re stinky. They stink. That’s not a good recipe for a lockdown middle reliever. You don’t want to be in a stinky environment.
Requiem for the Sens
The Sens still have a chance. They’re three games back of playoff position with four games to go and they need to pass a bunch of teams to make it happen, but a chance is a chance. All four of these four games are theoretically winnable, and the one tonight is against Keith Tkachuk’s least favorite son’s team, who’s currently one of the teams the Sens want to catch. Is it going to happen? I don’t know. But the Sens deserve a cursory mention in the final section of an NIT blogger’s hastily constructed Thursday afternoon notes. They’ve earned that much.
