Arch Manning committed. Arch Manning committed to Texas.
An historic recruit in terms of both ratings and attention, Manning turning to Austin is a bit of a surprise, but of any possible destination, it makes the most sense. Georgia hasn’t successfully developed NFL quarterbacks under Kirby Smart. At Alabama, expectations for team success are higher, making achieving it less special. At Texas, Manning gets a proven quarterback developer at head coach in Steve Sarkisian, a program that just brought in one of the best offensive line recruiting classes in the country, and a fanbase starved for success. Manning doesn’t have to win the national championship to be a legend in the state of Texas. Expectations are, silly as it sounds to say so about the Longhorns, more reasonable.
There are large unknowns, but some of those are advantages in themselves. Quinn Ewers, himself a highly touted prospect, has four years of eligibility left, but even if Manning might have to compete for the starting job as a freshman, the presence of such a good alternative under center makes it unlikely he’ll be thrust into competition without being fully ready. Texas might still be in the Big 12 for Manning’s first two years on campus, but that might give him space to develop before jumping into the SEC gauntlet. Sarkisian could conceivably be fired before Manning takes a snap, but we’re in an age in which transferring is easy and accepted, and the Manning family would have all sorts of leverage at Texas in selecting a new coach, should that be a process upon which Texas embarks.
The issue with Texas is that in recent times, things have gone wrong here. Things have looked like they were going to work out, and they have then not worked out. Charlie Strong, Tom Herman, and through just one season (but what a bad one it was) Steve Sarkisian have not gotten their teams to play up to their talent. Neither, in his last four years, did Mack Brown. Twelve full football seasons have been played since Colt McCoy took Texas to the national championship game. Texas has won ten games once in that stretch, and even that year they lost four separate times.
This is the hard thing about the Longhorns. You can interpret them based on the ingredients that predict success elsewhere, but for twelve years now, that formula hasn’t gotten the right answer when applied in Austin. Will this change because of Manning? Will this change around Manning? If it doesn’t change, will Manning emerge unscathed?
We’d say Manning can change it, or that the freshmen on the line can change it, and many will say just that, but this line of thinking ignores how this is a program coming off a five-win season in a mediocre Big 12. We’d say Manning will emerge unscathed, that he is untouchable even should a coach’s girlfriend’s pet monkey bite him on his throwing hand, but this line of thinking ignores the unpredictability factor that should-and-never-does accompany discourse surrounding this program.
The best expectation? Texas is fine this year. 9-3 is on the optimistic side for the regular season, but let’s say that, then say they get to 10-4 after a conference championship loss and a win in a bowl game. Sarkisian keeps his job, Manning enters with a lot of hype, Ewers maintains the starting job for Manning’s freshman year, and Texas…stagnates. By midyear in 2023, there’s a quarterback controversy, and neither Ewers nor Manning brings in the expected wins because the quarterback position is not, in 2023, the problem. Eventually, Ewers moves on, either to the NFL or a second transfer destination, and while Manning plays well in his wake, and earns himself a comfortable start to his NFL career, Texas never wins more than ten games with him at the helm.
That’s the best expectation here. Could it be exceeded? Yeah, definitely. It could also be wrong the other way, though. After all, it’s fairly rosy. Multiple ten-win seasons in the next five years? After one in the last twelve? Is that not optimistic?
So to surpass this optimistic “best expectation:” For this expectation to be exceeded, Manning might have to be more than just the most hyped quarterback prospect in college football history. Manning might have to be utterly transcendent.
What this really means, then, is that Sark has a longer leash this fall, and that Ewers has a shorter leash (and that Georgia’s not quite as ascendant as they so very recently seemed, but we’re not talking about Georgia today). Unless Manning decommits, Sark will be the coach again this time next year. Unless Ewers is himself transcendent (as a redshirt freshman), Texans from Nacogdoches to Pecos will be calling for his benching this time next year. In the meantime, Texas continues to prepare for Alabama, with a young and uncertain offensive line tasked with being the difference after arguably the most disappointing season in a dozen-year run of near-constant disappointment. Good luck, Archibald. Nobody didn’t warn you.
The Senators Might Be Moving
TO OTTAWA!
Long relegated to the suburbs, the Sens may be on their way into downtown Ottawa after being re-awarded the LeBreton Flats land where they tried and failed to build an arena a few years ago. What’s different this time? Well, uh, this is putting it harshly, but Eugene Melnyk didn’t always get along with everybody, and Eugene Melnyk is now dead.
Thrilling development for NHL fans everywhere, especially after last night’s game marred by controversial goals and two teams that are just really pretty boring to have playing for the Stanley Cup in 2022, don’t you think?
Burnley Schedule, Burnley Signing, Burnley Sendoff
In reverse order of how I listed them there:
Nick Pope is officially signing with Newcastle. The man saved Burnley a lot of goals, and now he makes Burnley some money in his departure (the transfer fee is “undisclosed,” and Charlton Athletic might be getting some of it through the initial deal on which Burnley signed Pope, but Burnley is getting multiple million pounds, and that is good). Seemed like a good dude, wish him the best, hope Wayne Hennessey is more than enough this coming year.
Dan Ballard is reportedly signing with Burnley. The Arsenal defender is 22 years old, has evidently been good while out on loan at Blackpool and Millwall, and plays for Northern Ireland in international games. Are he and Nathan Collins the new James Tarkowski and Ben Mee? We can only hope. The word is that Burnley is resisting efforts to spend as much as thirty million on Collins, which reflects well on the financial situation.
Finally, the schedule’s out for next year. Burnley kicks off the whole season, visiting Huddersfield Town, who lost the promotion playoff final in May. That’ll be on July 29th. The Blackburn matches are November 12th (at Turf Moor) and March 18th (over in Blackburn). Burnley finishes the regular season at home against Cardiff on May 6th. Hopefully that’s a victory lap.
The NIT Fan’s Guide to the NBA Draft
…is on its way. That’s next on the docket after these notes.
***
Viewing schedule, today/tonight:
12:35 PM EDT: Cubs @ Pirates (MLB TV)
Cubs have a chance at the series split, and a good chance, I’d argue. I’m excited for Justin Steele starts right now.
4:00 PM EDT: Arkansas vs. Mississippi (ESPN2)
I don’t know anything about either team’s pitching staff, but this feels like it’s late enough in a string of frequent games that each team might have to turn to a ton of pitchers, which is one of the best kinds of college baseball games.
7:30 PM EDT: NBA Draft (ABC/ESPN, second screen)
I’m sorry but I don’t know yet which former NIT stars are up for drafting. Like I said, that’s next on the docket.
8:10 PM EDT: Orioles @ White Sox (MLB TV)
Cueto to Kelly. White Sox fans should be feeling splendid about this evening.
