I think it’s important that we celebrate ourselves a little bit tonight. We’re doing a great job. We’re crushing the game. We are the best NIT community on this beautiful internet, my friends. And you know why I’m saying all that? Because out of our Ten Teams Who Could Win the NIT™, a fluid list that we’ve actually gone to the trouble of changing a few times, only Dayton is in our season’s first NIT Bracketology. We’ve taken great pains to keep the list believable, and we still have only one of our ten teams among the 32 currently projected to make the eventual field. Want to know what’s funnier? Dayton’s an automatic bid. They aren’t even in the at-large window right now.
I’m proud of us.
To be fair, teams who win the NIT are rarely season-long NIT contenders. They strategically wilt. They strategically surge. They play the long game, and dammit, do they ever play it well. But man, one out of ten? Here’s where the other nine are at:
- The Oklahomas are each within three seed lines of our turf, and our hope for them is that their eventual record will be too close to .500 to hold on to the ledge. That really only requires an extra loss or two each. They’re in great shape.
- Memphis is quietly right next to the Oklahomas. Memphis hasn’t been playing great ball. They’ve been playing good ball—remember, you have to be good to win the NIT—but not great. Our favorite looked like a foolish pick for a while, but the most aware Memphis fans are terrified, and that’s what we want.
- Illinois is in mid-collapse but isn’t quite there yet, which is good—collapse too dramatically and you fall right past us. That’s what happened to the guy from the roof towards the end of The Departed.
- Notre Dame and Wyoming are each an utter mess, but each has also shown potential for making a run, and that’s what’s got us grooving.
- We really want to kick Tulane out but they were Having a Moment by making the Cotton Bowl and then they beat USC in that Cotton Bowl and then we were assuming they’d lose to Temple but they didn’t? Matter of time. Or they’ll just win so much we get them in our window organically.
- UAB’s right below the projected cut line. Good place to be.
- St. John’s is also right below that cut line. Not as good a place to be for them as it is for UAB (long story), but not a bad lace to be.
So, we have seven boxing the field in and then we have Notre Dame and Wyoming preparing for one historic run apiece. We’ll take it.
Manifest Destiny
The NIT is famously headed west, playing its Final Four in Las Vegas this year, but little did we know that the field might also be heavily western? There is so much time left, the point of everything we just said is that there is so much time left, but ten of the projected 32 teams—half the projected at-large bids—are from the Pac-12 and Mountain West. That is radder than rad. Gotta hope it’s good for attendance that week, though I suppose that’s partly my job.
The Big Ten Is Back
It’s confirmed: The Big Ten is no longer superpowered. Err. Cursed. Cursed is a better word for the phenomenon we’re referencing. You can make the NIT if you play in the Big Ten, and it wasn’t always that way, and that means these guys are no longer cursed.
Of course, they still have to do it, but Iowa and Michigan and Penn State are all presently in our window, and Illinois and Michigan State and Wisconsin and Northwestern are all knocking on our door even without playing with the sub-.500 matchbox we left ominously on the table before we headed out to drink beers in public and didn’t hire a sitter. Love to see it from the Northwest Territory.
Carlos Correa: Still in Joe Kelly’s Division
I’m relieved that Carlos Correa has survived this long with whatever malady is keeping teams from signing him. I’m also relieved that he didn’t successfully get away from Joe Kelly. I know the new schedule dilutes the intradivision matchups, but we’ll get plenty of Kelly vs. Correa in 2023 assuming Correa finally finalizes this deal and it’s the Twins on the other end. Fun summer ahead.
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Our evening itinerary:
9:00 PM EST: Illinois @ Nebraska (BTN)
We won’t stop making Illinois the Game of the NITe until Illinois plays someone that isn’t a Game of the NITe-worthy opponent. And God bless Nebraska, they are trying to get in this thing.
6:30 PM EST: Butler @ St. John’s (FS1)
7:00 PM EST: Oklahoma State @ Kansas State (ESPNU)
7:00 PM EST: Dayton @ Fordham (ESPN+)
7:00 PM EST: Georgia Tech @ Notre Dame (ACCN)
9:00 PM EST: Oklahoma @ Kansas (ESPN2)
10:30 PM EST: Wyoming @ Utah State (FS1)
Six of our NIT contenders in action, and I’ll say it again, like I’ve been (incorrectly, it’s turned out) saying for over a week: Tonight’s the night Wyoming’s run starts. A bonus? Notre Dame’s run starts tonight too. Oh, and Kansas is going to beat Oklahoma by thirty, so they should be ours by next week. I just hope they don’t fall past us.
7:00 PM EST: Michigan State @ Wisconsin (ESPN)
7:00 PM EST: Florida @ LSU (SECN)
7:00 PM EST: Toledo @ Kent State (ESPN+)
8:00 PM EST: Texas Tech @ Iowa State (ESPN+)
8:30 PM EST: Seton Hall @ Georgetown (FS1)
9:00 PM EST: Auburn @ Mississippi (ESPNU)
9:00 PM EST: Villanova @ DePaul (CBSSN)
11:00 PM EST: Nevada @ San Diego State (CBSSN)
NIT situations for this crew:
- Michigan State and Wisconsin are on the upper bubble.
- Florida’s on the lower bubble, LSU’s in our grasp.
- Kent State’s a projected automatic bid but is good enough to push for an at-large spot. Toledo’s their best conference foe, so big NITe in the MAC.
- Texas Tech’s in our clutches.
- Seton Hall’s in our hands, and Georgetown’s raring for any glimmer of hope (just survival hope, not NIT hope, they’re toast as far as the NIT is concerned).
- Mississippi’s in the lower bubble picture.
- Villanova’s in a good spot except they’re aimed at a sub-.500 record.
- We’re holding Nevada tightly and we would heavily advise them to not be rash this evening.
Good NITe ahead. Happy NIT season. Good riddance to all that football nonsense (I’m addicted to the PFF Mock Draft machine, please send help.)
