Apologies for the absence of these notes yesterday. After spending three hours wrestling with the cheapest laptop money can buy to build a database of NIT alumni playing in these NBA playoffs while waiting for a computer repair shop to call me back after already missing their estimate by two weeks, I went on a rage run, which is like a normal run except I was really fuckin’ pissed.
NIT in the NBA
Thankfully, I finished the database, and can now tell you things like…
The Heat have no NIT alumni on their roster, and as such, will probably lose to the Delon Wright and Skylar Mays-led Hawks tonight. A combined 1-2 career NIT record is better than a combined 0-0 career NIT record. That’s what education teaches a guy.
The Timberwolves have seven NIT alums wearing their jersey, which you would think would mean the Grizzlies are absolutely fucked, but given the NIT greatness of John Konchar and the sheer prolificity of Desmond Bane’s NIT career (8-1 record in NIT games—absurd success), that matchup’s probably a tossup.
The Pelicans are a weird NIT-pedigree case, because Jaxson Hayes has an NIT ring (if they made those that year) but he didn’t actually play any minutes (a lot easier to play in the NBA than the NIT, guys). They do have Naji Marshall, though, and he has one of the greatest single-game performances in recent NIT history, so keep an eye on him to do it again on the smaller stage.
Man, that was a rush. So worth it.
R.I.P. Carrier Dome
Nah, they aren’t getting rid of it. Just switching sponsors. They’re doing some renovations too? Don’t bother me with those. I’m in this for the name, and I’ll probably still call it the Carrier Dome for at least a few more years. Do the Miller Park thing, though. Where I add a caveat every time and get annoyed. At least Carrier was a fairly neutral sponsor instead of a sponsor so on-brand that the Brewers should have paid them to use the name on their stadium (just like they have to pay people to come fill seats inside it).
Joe Kelly: Still Throwing Gas
No setbacks for Joe Kelly, who was reportedly throwing mid-90’s the other day. “Close to facing live hitters.” Won’t be live when he’s done with them (self-esteem-wise, I mean).
Jake Arrieta: Retired, Effectively
Jake Arrieta went on Friend-of-the-Blog PFT Commenter’s podcast yesterday, Pardon My Take, and said he’s done. I think we’re still a little too close to last year to roll the highlights, but this does give us the ability to start estimating when we’ll be able to roll said highlights, and I think it might be as early as this time next year. Get us through one full season without him in the Majors and I think we’re good. That said, would help if the Cubs were fun and competitive. That would help a lot.
Keegan Thompson: Good!
Speaking of fun and competitive, Keegan Thompson did it again last night, gobbling up nearly four innings while the Cubs got their shit together offensively (on offense, I mean—they weren’t saying offensive things while they got their shit together).
Thompson was a good vibe guy last year, making a memorable first career start in that sweep of the Dodgers (that was a wild series at the time and is even more wild in hindsight). He’s also been a good vibe guy this year, avenging Ian Happ’s kneecap in his season debut and just keeping it going from there. Dude’s been the biggest difference-maker in the league on the mound, going by WPA, which is a real stat that really measures how big of difference-makers guys have been. Joe keeps talking about how Thompson irons out the wrinkles, and it’s been true. All three of his appearances, the Cubs have needed something important and he’s provided it. In the first case, it was vengeance. In the last two, it’s been escapes from pressure.
Let’s Solve NASCAR’s Rain Problem
The NASCAR dirt race on Sunday was seemingly a success? Saw some folks tweeting about it who don’t usually tweet about NASCAR, the ratings met the bare minimum of being better than other recent Bristol spring races, Mason Ramsey watched it (they may have paid him to do it, but he does seem to have watched). Kyle Busch backed into a win at the end when Chase Briscoe tried to make his car do things it couldn’t do and ended up sliding up into Tyler Reddick (who predictably handled the situation amicably because Tyler Reddick is a joy and a balm through and through, the kind of guy you want at every party because he just smooths it all over, like Keegan Thompson with a dicey middle-inning lead), that was fun, and the dirt actually helped avoid rain delays, since it was damp but it was dirt and dirt’s ok when it’s a little damp, unlike concrete, evidently.
The problem, of course, was the rain delays, and the bigger problem with those is the degree of arbitrary decision-making they put in NASCAR’s hands. On the one hand, arbitrary decision-making can be good. It’s easier to shape some drama if you have the power to just decide who wins and loses in many situations. Generally speaking, though, you don’t want your sport’s governing body to be able to clearly decide when to end competitions based on who’s leading (that’s what makes F1 such a joke), and rain delays are also boring. Which is why…
Obviously, NASCAR’s ideal situation here is to control the weather, with the second option being to figure out how to drive in any weather. Since those are unrealistic, though, and since it doesn’t look like moving the race around based on the forecast is going to fly (which is reasonable—people have to plan around this stuff), and since others have covered the “change the schedule to avoid seasonal rain” angle, the thing we’re going to focus on here is what NASCAR can do in the case of a situation like Sunday’s, where rain’s bearing down and a delay might happen and whether it does and how long it lasts if it does is very much up to arbitrary decision-makers.
What to do in this situation? Here’s the idea:
You know, for the most part, when rain’s ten or twenty minutes away. Our weatherpeople have gotten good enough for that to, most of the time, be the case. So, when you see it popping up, if you’re NASCAR, pick a number. Pick a number of laps left. Then, finish the race. Before the rain comes. Decide that you will not have rain delays, make that clear, and make teams adjust, then make your own move to push the end of the race as close to the onset of rain as possible. Is it still arbitrary? Yes. But less so. And it removes some of the annoyance of these many-hour delays that always kill the buzz. Thankfully, Sunday didn’t have many of those, but they’re common. Far too common.
Should IndyCar Race on Dirt?
I meant this as a joke but then I googled it to make sure I wasn’t missing something and, it sounds like they maybe could do it? I don’t know. It’s been 41 years. I don’t think they actually can. What they could do, though, is try, and also add jumps and shit and just make it a huge disaster and then throw their hands up and say, “Well, the Indy 500’s worth ten times as many points as a normal race now instead of twice as many.” I’d tune in.
Is Burnley Alive or Dead?
Burnley almost took down West Ham on Sunday, and they did get a draw, which isn’t nothing. Missed some huge opportunities, needed a heart-stopping save from Nick Pope to get through, Ashley Westwood seriously hurt his ankle, but it isn’t nothing. One point could ultimately make the difference, and the American sporting equivalent of where the Clarets are at is that they’re about a game and a half back of Everton with seven and a half to play. In actual terms, they’re three points back, and they have seven games left while Everton has eight.
In the immediate term, Everton hosts Leicester tomorrow before Burnley hosts Southampton on Thursday. Everton’s at about 40% likelihood to get the win, per betting markets, and about 70% likely to win or draw. Burnley’s about 33% likely to get the win and 65% likely to win or draw. So there are ways (one-in-ten, roughly) for Burnley to pull ahead of Everton in the next 48 hours, and there’s a decent probability (two-in-five, roughly) the two either keep things where they’re at or Burnley gains ground. So, 50/50 shot of at least holding the line. The two won’t be even for good on matches played until May 11th, at which point only three matches will remain. Leeds is still in the mix, too, but it’s mostly Burnley v. Everton, and Everton’s got the upper hand or foot or whatever body part we want to use.
On the coaching front, the word is that Burnley’s trying to find a ringer for these last seven games and will worry about next steps after that. I haven’t followed too closely. Seems like it should happen fairly quickly if that’s what’s happening, right? And then we do a big get-to-know-so-and-so move? What a wild situation. Credit to ownership for taking relegation seriously, I guess? I don’t know. It all feels kind of scary. I did not anticipate this back in the day when I decided to become a Burnley fan.
Senators: No New Helmet Videos
The Sens are out in the Pacific Northwest right now, losing to the Kraken last night and playing the Canucks tonight. On Saturday, they lost to the Leafs 5-4 in overtime, so that was too bad. Tim Stützle scored twice, which was fun, and the game as a whole was wild, which is all you can ask of our beloved Ottawa Senators, but it was a “Hey, we almost really fucked you guys up” game instead of a “Hey, we just fucked you guys up” game, and while we’ll take the former against the Leafs rather than getting beat, we would’ve preferred the latter. Zach Senyshyn debuted last night in Seattle. He was the return for Josh Brown at the deadline, along with a slight draft pick upgrade.
College Baseball: Add an NIT?
I don’t think this would work. College football lends itself ok to this kind of nonsense, but baseball has too much parity by nature of the game for this sort of fun. It’s a shame. One of the few downsides of college baseball. But hey, can’t just manufacture greatness like the NIT.
The Moody Center Is Open
They did some sort of grand opening for the Moody Center, Texas’s new arena, and I haven’t looked at what happened but I saw some fawning over Brock Cunningham by the local press and I saw a banner over 7th Street advertising it, so I think I know how it went. Can’t wait to get over there and see the mural of Shaka Smart holding the trophy back in 2019, and then the Maui trophy from 2020 next to it and the Big 12 Tournament trophy from 2021 on the other side. What a mural that must be. Wish someone would post a picture online.
***
Viewing schedule tonight, second screen in italics:
- Wright & Mays @ Collection of NIT-Less Losers, Game 2 (7:30 PM EDT, TNT)
- Rays @ Cubs (7:40 PM EDT, Regional TV)
- NIT Quantity @ NIT Quality, Game 2 (8:30 PM EDT, NBA TV, not waiting for Hawks game to end)
- Senators @ Canucks (10:00 PM EDT, ESPN+, will wait for Cubs game to end and actually will probably put this on the second screen until the Cubs game does end)
