I’m familiar with the context clues, but I still wonder what caramba means.
The NIT! Bubble Watch
The NIT’s just more than a week away (I might faint), and the bubble is as much a bonanza as ever. Here’s the situation, starting with the at-large picture:
IN (I mean, it would be shocking if they missed it): BYU, Belmont
BYU and Belmont are each comfortably within the bounds of our latest NIT Bracketology, and while the résumé of each can still wiggle as other teams finish, it’s hard to see enough teams climbing or falling without others doing the same for either of these guys to miss the cut. Belmont could reasonably be anywhere from a 3-seed to a 6-seed. BYU looks aimed pretty squarely at the 2-line, but that can change.
OUT (I mean, it would be shocking if one of these guys somehow broke free from the other tournament and made it. Godspeed, though, if you try.): Baylor, Kansas, Arizona, Gonzaga, Auburn, Kentucky, Purdue, Tennessee, Villanova, Wisconsin, Duke, UCLA, Providence, Texas Tech, Illinois, Arkansas, Saint Mary’s, LSU, UConn, Houston, Alabama, USC, Texas, Colorado State, Ohio State, Seton Hall, Boise State, San Diego State, Iowa State, Iowa, Murray State, Marquette, Michigan State, North Carolina, Michigan, San Francisco, TCU, Loyola
There’s just no way. In the case of Loyola and Murray State, literally. 38 teams, lost to the sands of time. Good teams, too. Poor guys.
OOH BOY THAT’S A GOOD QUESTION: Missouri State, Drake
Missouri State and Drake are each done for the year, with the Bears currently projecting on the right side of the bubble and the Bulldogs currently projecting on the wrong side of the bubble. So very close, though. So very close. A higher or lower number of automatic bids would probably give us our answer on both.
The Balloon Floating Away: Memphis, Davidson, Xavier, VCU, North Texas, Miami, Creighton, Wake Forest, SMU
With a loss to South Florida, Memphis could conceivably still successfully defend its title, but South Florida would have to beat Central Florida, and then South Florida would have to beat Memphis, and neither of those teams is all that likely. Similarly, Davidson would presumably have to lose to Fordham or George Mason and lose badly. Both possible, but not feeling good.
Xavier plays Butler, who’s bad enough for the Musketeers to still play their way in, especially if they get some bid thief help. Our model seems to hate VCU relative to the field, which has their NIT chances better than this. Maybe a loss to Richmond would be enough, maybe it’d take a loss to Rhode Island or Duquesne, either way it’s probably possible.
North Texas has plenty of chances for terrible losses, which is to say they have one chance for a terrible loss. They do have two chances for mediocre losses, though, and one of those might be enough. You have to hope if you’re in Denton. It’s a law there. A natural law. That Waffle House off 35 is too good of a roadside Waffle House to not have hope. They’d be an automatic bid if they made it, but that’s just semantics at that point.
Miami missed a great opportunity to lose to Syracuse and now has itself with a Q2 win and no space in the cupboard. Idiots. They might have to play Wake Forest, which wouldn’t be a very bad loss. Wake Forest, meanwhile, gets to play either Boston College or Pitt, giving them a fighting chance.
Creighton could already be beyond us—unlike VCU, our model loves Creighton relative to the mainstream media (other sites like ours around The Internet)—but maybe a blowout by Marquette would do enough. We won’t tell them not to hope, even if we’re pretty sure there aren’t any Waffle Houses in Omaha.
Finally, SMU gets either Wichita State or Tulsa, and they’re close enough to our life raft that either should pull them on board.
Bid-Thief Land: Wyoming, Notre Dame
Wyoming and Notre Dame are really banking on bid thieves at this point. Notre Dame could play their way in if they can draw Clemson or NC State, but if they play Virginia Tech, a loss might not be enough. Wyoming gets to play UNLV on the road, which is one of the most advantageous draws a team hoping to make the NIT could come up with in their conference tournament opener. They, too, though, may need to lose badly. A close loss might not be enough.
The High Bubblers: Dayton, Indiana, Rutgers, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma, Florida, Texas A&M, St. Bonaventure, Mississippi State
The recipe for these teams is simple: Lose. They might not need to do it right away (well, Indiana and Rutgers probably have to do it right away), but they all need to lose. Winning could help their home game chances, but at some point you rise out of the field, and nobody wants that. Is there a chance a bad-enough loss could pull a team like Mississippi State or St. Bonaventure down out of the field? Yes. But it’s not very likely.
The Low Bubblers: UAB, Saint Louis, Colorado, Virginia, South Carolina, Oregon, Santa Clara
These guys all need wins to stay safe, at least in the immediate term, though Colorado would probably be ok with a loss to Oregon, and South Carolina would probably be ok with a loss to Mississippi State. Santa Clara would go join Missouri State and Drake with a loss tonight against Saint Mary’s.
Hanging On, Mufasa-Style: St. John’s, Florida State, Washington State, Utah State, Vanderbilt, Richmond, Wichita State, UNLV, UCF
After these guys, it gets pretty unlikely, but they’re our next teams in the mix. St. John’s probably needs to beat DePaul, and might need more. Florida State probably needs to beat Syracuse, but could possibly get away with a loss there. Washington State absolutely needs to get past Cal, and might need to give UCLA a good game or get some help elsewhere. The others all need wins. Probably multiple.
There are schools below here that could make it happen, but for all of them (Syracuse, thinking of you here), even a huge win would probably only get them to the bubble.
IN (automatic bid): Texas State, Northern Iowa
Two schools mediumly close to the heart. My godmother went to UNI, and you know we love the UNI-Dome. Many a friend down here in Austin went to Texas State, as did my therapist and Lyndon B. Johnson. Also, drive rideshare here long enough and you will inevitably accidentally spend a day in San Marcos. It’s a dusty town by day. By night, I’m told it’s fun. Still need to get to the square.
Likely Automatic Bids: Alcorn State, Long Beach State, Cleveland State, Montana State, New Mexico State
These guys are all 2-in-3 likely or better to lose their conference tournament and come party with us.
Possible Automatic Bids: Iona, Toledo, Princeton, Bryant, Nicholls State, Chattanooga, Norfolk State, South Dakota State, Towson
These guys are all around 50% likely to lose their conference tournament and come party with us.
The Weirdest Automatic Bid Situation: Jacksonville State
Long story (the ASUN lets everyone play in their conference tournament, even teams the NCAA won’t let play in NCAA-run postseason tournaments, and that wackies up the automatic bid situation), but if Bellarmine wins tonight, Jacksonville State gets yanked up to the other tournament, whereas if Jacksonville wins tonight, their nominal brother comes with us.
Unlikely Automatic Bids: Colgate, Vermont
Each less than 3-in-10 likely to lose their conference tournament.
The NIT! ToNITe
Now that we’re all up to speed on the bracketological picture, let’s look at tonight’s action, where five games impact the NIT picture and former NIT favorite San Francisco also plays:
Towson vs. Delaware, 6:00 PM EST, CBSSN
Live, from Washington D.C., it’s Towson and Delaware! A Blue Hen win would send the Tigers our way via automatic bid, and Towson wouldn’t be just any automatic bid. They might get a 5-seed. Would be tight, but they could pull it off.
If Towson wins, their odds of making the NIT get pretty unlikely. They’re a solid favorite, and would be again tomorrow in the CAA Championship.
Chattanooga vs. Furman, 7:00 PM EST, ESPN
Live, from Asheville, it’s Chattanooga and Furman! A Paladin win would send the Mocs our way via automatic bid, and they, even more so than Towson, wouldn’t be just any automatic bid. Pretty good chance they’d get a home game.
If Chattanooga wins, their season is, for all intense purposes, over. Just exhibition games from there.
Cleveland State vs. Wright State, 7:00 PM EST, ESPNU
Live, from Indianapolis but I wish it was Detroit because I miss #MotorCityMadness, it’s Cleveland State and Wright State! I’ve lost track of whether the HoLo’s auto-bid streak is alive, because we haven’t had auto-bids the last two years and auto-bid streaks are a lot to keep track of, but Cleveland State gets one with a loss and still has a solid chance even if they win, because everyone in the Horizon League seems to be about as good as everyone else in the Horizon League, except for Milwaukee who inexplicably stunk this year. (Even with the Baldwin injury, they should’ve been better, right? Milwaukee friends help me out.)
For those wondering, Loudon Love plays for the Texas Legends right now in the G-League (not sure where the Texas Legends play but it isn’t Austin, we have the Austin Spurs), and Norris Cole plays professionally in Spain. He is 33. It has been 13 years since Norris Cole entered our lives. Gary Waters is still alive, by the way. That was a relief to find out.
South Dakota State vs. South Dakota, 7:00 PM EST, ESPN+
On a slight delay because you have to stream it and it’s not available through cable, from Sioux Falls, it’s South Dakota State and South Dakota! (South Dakota and South Dakota State has a much better ring to it but we already agreed to list the higher seed first.)
The Jacks come our way with a loss, but they’re in the Towson boat where a loss isn’t that likely and one tomorrow isn’t that likely either. Combined, one happening is decently likely, but in the individual-game sense neither is particularly likely. The Brookingsers (Brookingsians, I’m being told) could get a home game with a loss, but if that’s their aim, better to win big tonight and try to lose close tomorrow.
Saint Mary’s vs. Santa Clara, 11:30 PM EST, ESPN2
Live, from Paradise, Nevada, it’s Santa Clara and Saint Mary’s! (Looks like Paradise is an unincorporated place where The Strip is, that’s wild, I had no idea, WOW.) Santa Clara, as mentioned, could use a win. At the very least, try to lose close, guys. Blowout puts you in a dangerous spot.
***
Ok, I think that’s the NIT buzz for this evening. Now, on to everything else we hold dear:
Alex Bowman Wins in the Funniest Ways
I think Joe’s going to tell you about our bad beat from yesterday (it was the worst beat in the history of my life), but those who don’t care about our gambling and do care about NASCAR will be glad to know that Alex Bowman won as a byproduct of some silliness yesterday.
To be fair, yes, Bowman’s team made a great decision and Bowman drove well on the last two laps, holding off Kyle Larson, which is not at all easy to do.
But at the same time, man. It is nuts that Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr. both didn’t win that. And they didn’t even wreck each other, which would’ve been much more believable.
What happened, for those who weren’t watching or who haven’t read about it or who didn’t get texts during it from Joe and me saying things like “fucking fuck” and “I am distraught,” is that Kyle Busch and Truex had pulled away late and were racing each other tightly for the win. Three laps remained. There was some lapped traffic to get around, but the rest of the field was too far back to catch them. They had the race locked up.
Then, Erik Jones got loose.
Then, Erik Jones got into the wall.
Then, the caution flag waved.
Everyone came down pit road, judging that you needed fresh tires to win on the overtime restart, but three cars—three Hendrick cars, specifically, I believe; Larson, Bowman, and William Byron—decided to give it a shot with two tires. They got track position, they lost a little grip. It ended up being the right trade. Busch couldn’t get around Bowman on the low line (partly thanks to good driving by Bowman, who was having to worry about Busch and Larson at the same time), the 48 won, Joe was, to use his word, distraught.
For those tracking at home, that makes Bowman, Larson, and Austin Cindric our three guaranteed playoff drivers so far. Next week the gang heads to Phoenix.
In other news: Larson and Chase Elliott seem to have quashed any beef, and Ty Gibbs is becoming a bit of a villain down in the Xfinity Series.
Bad Day for the Burnleys
Burnley actually played alright on Saturday, by expected goals and all that, but they gave up four second-half goals to lose to Chelsea with Ben Mee still sidelined, and the vibe was bad. With Everton losing just now to Tottenham, 5-0, the bottom of the table’s looking like this:
14. Newcastle: 28 points, 26 games played, -16 goal differential
15: Brentford: 27 points, 28 games played, -15 goal differential
16: Leeds: 23 points, 27 games played, -32 goal differential
17: Everton: 22 points, 25 games played, -18 goal differential
18: Burnley: 21 points, 26 games played, -14 goal differential
19: Watford: 19 points, 27 games played, -23 goal differential
20: Norwich: 17 points, 27 games played, -42 goal differential
The upside of Burnley having kept so many games close before Saturday is that they’re still in the lead in that group in the tiebreaker, goal difference. The downside of Burnley losing 4-0 is that they’ve now given most of that advantage back, at least to Eerton and Brentford and Newcastle.
This week, Leeds hosts Aston Villa on Thursday and Norwich on Sunday. Everton hosts Wolverhampton on Sunday. Newcastle’s at Southampton on Thursday and Chelsea on Sunday, Norwich hosts Chelsea on Thursday and has that Leeds game Sunday, Watford’s at Wolverhampton on Thursday and Southampton on Sunday. Burnley, meanwhile, goes to Brentford on Saturday. Large game. Leeds is the most likely team the lads can chase down, but Everton and Brentford aren’t too far behind in that measure.
Oh No, Ottawa
The Senators lost two hilarious games over the weekend, the first 8-5 in Phoenix after falling behind 4-0, coming back to make it 5-4 (with a Thomas Chabot three-assists-in-three-minutes moment in there), and then, well, allowing the last four goals; the second 2-1 in Las Vegas after what was evidently one of the worst calls in history went against the Sens and led to a power play goal for the Knights with five seconds left.
Matt Murray is now hurt again, by the way. Road trip continues tomorrow in St. Louis. Brady Tkachuk’s hometown.
***
Viewing priorities tonight are the Chattanooga game (Game of the NITe) and the Santa Clara game (Game of the LITes because it’s in Las Vegas). Nothing on from 9:00 PM EST to 11:30 PM EST, but that’s too late to call my grandma, so thanks a whole fucking lot, ESPN. Hopefully something goes ten overtimes in that window or I accidentally give myself diarrhea and can just sit on the toilet the whole time.
