I may have overhyped this.
Whatever, let’s dig in.
There are certain teams for whom it is, in the national consciousness, inconsequential to win the NIT. Tell a stranger that Xavier won the NIT, or that Memphis won it, or that Penn State won it, and the stranger—unless they had a great history teacher or read this blog—will probably react in a way that communicates, “I don’t know what to say to you right now.” This, trust me, is almost always the reaction when you tell a stranger that Xavier or Memphis or Penn State won the NIT. Every time. Just happened today. “How about those reigning NIT champion Xavier Musketeers?” “Sir, please stop. We aren’t going to arrest you for TP-ing a stop sign. And the guy’s out of jail anyway, so it’s not like you’re going to get that interview you’re wanting.” Yes, for many teams, winning the NIT doesn’t register nationally. It’s a private joy.
For other teams, winning the NIT is funny. When Texas won the NIT, there was some comedy. Had Duke been invited to the 2021 NIT and won it, there would have been a lot of comedy. There’s a third category—Lipscomb winning in 2019 would’ve been straight-up cool—but for power conference or power conference-adjacent schools, it’s indifference or it’s hilarity. Illinois fits firmly in the camp of the latter. Which is why we want it to happen so badly.
We identified Illinois as an NIT contender on opening day. Yes, they were talented, but you have to be talented to win five straight games in March. True, they play in the Big Ten, but with six downright terrible nonconference opponents, their chances of having a lot of wins and still a bad-enough résumé were reasonable. Built primarily of freshmen and transfers, the recipe was there for an early-season implosion and late-season rally, and the recipe was also there for an early-season surge and a mid-season collapse, and the recipe was further there for consistent inconsistence. Beating UCLA but getting torched by Penn State at home. That kind of thing. The exact thing that’s happening.
We identified Illinois specifically as a funny NIT contender at the same time. Texas was fun, but Illinois has the potential to be outrageous. Because Illinois fans would not be bemused by an NIT title. Illinois fans would be furious. Illinois fans would be offended by their team’s act of winning the greatest tournament known to man.
It’s trendy these years to say that anybody you don’t like is easily offended (it’s also in vogue to be easily offended—victimization is hot in the streets). But here’s the thing: I really like Illinois fans. Almost all of them. I don’t have much of a formal tie to the school, but generally, I want the Illini to win. The fans are just easily offended. Super easily offended. They’re the kind of people who will react to a recruit choosing a better basketball program that’s comparably easy to get to from his hometown of Chicago by threatening on Twitter to harm themselves and loved ones. They’re the kind of people who will toss up a 500-post message board thread because one algorithm doesn’t have them getting a 1-seed in a certain exhibition tournament (couldn’t have been us [it was us, 2021]). They’re equally fantastic trolls (all the Fran McCaffery stuff, the fact they hired Bret Bielema) and unable to take a prank (may God continue to protect Cliff Alexander). Winning the NIT is, for a people like this, a cosmic prank. Illinois fans wouldn’t be able to take it. Brad Underwood would be up there apologizing at the trophy presentation.
And so, Saturday’s result in Assembly Hall, with Jalen Pickett terrorizing nets and Andrew Funk doing exactly what you want a Bucknell transfer to do and Terrence Shannon looking like he was coming back from an injury despite being perfectly healthy…it was a special result. And all the better that it was Penn State beating Illinois, Penn State, whose fans get legitimately excited every time they win the NIT and are probably secretly hoping for an excuse to visit Las Vegas in March.
Does Illinois really have an NIT chance? They do. They most certainly do. Even if they win these next three, all they need to do in Big Ten play is finish probably six games under .500, which sounds terrible but is only 7-13, meaning from here they just need to lose to everyone better than Michigan. 17-14 overall entering the Big Ten Tournament? That’s one more rough loss away from being all ours. And with some home-court advantage thrown in.
Yes, Illinois can win the NIT. And it’s a whole month before they could possibly have done enough impressive things to shake us from that stance.
Memphis: Concerns
Yeah, Memphis looked good again last night. Lost, but played well. When you zoom out, looking at those losses to our boys Saint Louis and Seton Hall, the situation calms, but we may lose Memphis. Still the favorite, but mostly because we haven’t taken the time to name a new one. Maybe Texas A&M can help instill some light panic on Saturday. Buzz Williams seems like he’d have that effect on Penny Hardaway. Especially if he showed up in his state-ranger-investigating-financial-crimes costume. Not that Hardaway’s done financial crimes. Just feel like that could get a guy nervous. I always get nervous when I’m told I’m being investigated for financial crimes.
Rick Pitino’s National Title’s on the Table
One of the wildest things about Rick Pitino is that he’s never won a national championship. Made the Final Four in ’86, made it again in his first year at Louisville, but he’s never won one, and while many scoffed when we said he could do it at Iona, it’s hard to ignore what’s going on there. Nice little comeback over Princeton last night. That’s exactly the kind of “so what” win that marks a heady NIT contender.
Did Carlos Correa Dodge Joe Kelly?
It is, quite frankly, hard to see any other explanation behind Correa’s decision to flee to California after a single year in the American League Central. Carl admittedly got the best of Joe this year on the field, but I guess he was scared to give that advantage up. Thankfully, baseball finds a way.
On the Cubs side: Thank goodness. That was going to be a rough thirteen years. My nephew’s gonna be driving when that contract runs out, and I’d hate to be the one to have to explain to him hitting Carlos Correa with a car is not ok.
The thing about the Cubs that I don’t think we’re talking about enough is that this team was going to be mediocre even with Correa. The roster’s bad, guys. It’s a bad roster. Correa wasn’t going to magically change that. Now, at least the vibes have a chance of being good.
Tim Stützle: Hope
Jimmy Stu’s just got a bruise! Shoulder contusion is the listing, as opposed to anything structural. Gonna be out at least a week, and weeks are in short supply right now for the Sens, given where they’ve put themselves in the standings, but the guy’s not dead.
**
Viewing itinerary tonight:
7:30 PM EST: UCF @ Mississippi (ESPN+)
Game of the NITe, and what a one it is. Hardly anything at all to say about it. That’s when you know it’s ours.
9:00 PM EST: UC-Riverside @ Oregon (P12)
Joe Kelly’s alma mater is going duck hunting, and we felt we should let you know.
7:30 PM EST: Knicks @ Bulls (ESPN)
The thing with English soccer is that this would be a huge game for the two sides. We need to get rid of the NBA Playoffs. That’s how healing starts.
7:00 PM EST: Canadiens @ Senators (ESPN+)
Sens are big favorites again, this time over a rival. Loser, as always, has to fully learn English.
