Chris Holtmann got fired today, which is too bad, because he has a family and emotions and stuff. If he didn’t, though?
Oh boy.
Ohio State’s NIT chances just got a big boost.
The thing about coaches getting fired mid-season is that we never know how much it matters, and yet we very confidently point to it happening as the cause of all results thereafter. If Ohio State gets hot, Gene Smith will look like a genius. If Ohio State goes cold, well, it’s not like Holtmann was going to save his job if he upset Minnesota next week. Firing a coach mid-season is a no-lose move for a hopeless team. It’s a vibe shakeup. That’s why you see it so often in hockey and soccer, two sports predicated on vibes. (That, or I just don’t know a whole lot about hockey and soccer, which makes them seem like they’re only about vibes because I don’t know what else they could be about. Hmm. Let’s go with the first explanation. That one’s more demeaning for soccer and empowering for hockey.)
Applying this to Ohio State:
We don’t know if this actually shakes up the vibes or not, but if it doesn’t, it won’t matter. They’ll finish .500 overall and probably get themselves left out of the NIT. They’d already fallen out of seeded territory last Friday in our projections, and things weren’t getting better.
If it does shake those vibes up, and in a good way? Well, it’d be hard in that scenario to not finish above .500, given the Buckeyes are already three games above even right now and Michigan remains on the schedule, possibly twice. (Yeah, yeah, but this time the games won’t be in Ann Arbor. And we already said this is the scenario where the vibes are good!) Also on the table is…well, this roster did beat Alabama in November. It’s not like they’ve got nothing in them. They could absolutely get hot enough to make a run at the bubble, and to then, invigorated, make big noise in the NIT.
In other words, I’m comfortable calling a team that’s won twice in its last eleven games an NIT contender. But I, like Gene Smith, have nothing at all to lose.
Indiana State, Texas A&M, and Virginia
What a NITe for bad losses. Let’s rank ‘em.
- Worst loss (best for NIT chances): Virginia.
- Goldilocks (that doesn’t apply here but we *are* in the middle): Texas A&M.
- Ehh, people are overreacting: Indiana State.
It wasn’t like Indiana State was going to go undefeated from here. They lost! It happens. FAU’s done something similar. I’m still skeptical we’ll land the Sycamores. Partly because they’ll be the favorite at Arch Madness, a tournament so named because it inspires anger in those who want Indiana State in the NIT.
Texas A&M lost to Vandy, but it was on the road, and it was on a cool buzzer beater. My little league team lost a bad game when I was 12, but it was on a walkoff in extra innings and the kid who hit it was going through unspeakable tragedy. That made it better. Is Ezra Manjon going through tragedy right now? You could argue no, but then again: He’s playing for Vanderbilt.
Virginia, though…man. Virginia. They’d won a lot of games in a row, which was enough for the Associated Press to rank them. Those wins, however, were all against ACC teams. Only one of them was something we’d even mention if we were talking about a team in the Big 12. Now, Virginia can play the “we’re capable of losing at home card,” too. That’s key. A team that goes undefeated at home is going to have a hard time making the National Invitation Tournament.
More Like Night-tona
Actually, more like Mondaytona. Because we’re looking at rain on Sunday for the Daytona 500. I hate this. It happens way too often and is still entirely unavoidable.
Another Protest!
Remember when the Blazers were going to protest that loss and then decided not to because it sounded like too much work? (i.e., They were tanking and wanted the loss.) Well, now the Knicks are going to actually protest one. Yippee! It’s the Rockets loss from Monday night. The one where the ref called a foul on Jalen Brunson but snitched on himself after the game for getting it wrong.
Etc.
The NIT, NITexas, and 2019 NIT champion Shaka Smart:
- We took a look at Mississippi in today’s NIT scouting report (TikTok, Instagram). Did you guys remember that Chris Beard got a full year and a half at Texas? I knew that, but I had to work to know it, if that makes sense. It felt like he was gone immediately.
- Marquette beat Butler in Indianapolis, which is good for Shaka Smart’s reputation (sad what society values) but also good for the NIT, which now has a better chance of getting a deep run from the Bulldogs. I want to meet Butler Blue. I want that so badly. I want to put him on my shoulders and have him tell me the hoop’s still ten feet high.
- Big NIT action tonight includes…*drum roll*…Iowa at Maryland, UMass at Richmond, a few other games I’m not going to the trouble to mention because they’re complicated, and the Game of the NITe: Xavier at Seton Hall. Swords!
Chicago:
- Bulls play tonight. In Cleveland. Against—you guessed it—Cleveland.
- Marc Trestman is joining Jim Harbaugh with the Chargers. What if Trestman and Matt Nagy both win Super Bowls?
The Ottawa Senators:
- Won. Beat the Blue Jackets. Brady Tkachuk had a hat trick. Ridly Greig scored and the place went nuts. The Canadiens and Sabres also won, making it a big day for the bottom of the Atlantic Division. Look out, haters. There’s a new Big 3 in the broadly defined St. Lawrence River Valley.
