Joe Kelly didn’t have a good outing last night. He said as much himself, telling James Fegan of The Athletic, “Ultimately, it’s just pitching shitty.”
It’s no secret baseball’s best pitcher’s been struggling during the rare weeks this year when he’s been healthy enough to stand on an MLB mound. He’s walking more batters than in any other season, and while his strikeouts are up as well, we aren’t going to lie: He isn’t getting the job done.
Joe Kelly’s 9.49 ERA is bad. He’s only thrown 12.1 innings, but at that ERA through that number of innings, one would have to throw 11.1 consecutive innings without allowing an earned run just to get the ERA number to respectable territory, under five. But while Joe Kelly’s results have been terrible and his pitching hasn’t been its best, he hasn’t truly been pitching badly.
There are two stats out there called FIP and xERA, and they’re better indicators of future ERA than ERA itself is. FIP stands for Fielding Independent Pitching, it’s measured on the same scale as ERA, and it represents what one would expect a pitcher’s ERA to be were that pitcher to receive an average number of outs, singles, doubles, and triples on balls hit in the field of play. Joe Kelly’s is 4.08. That isn’t good—it would be his worst since 2016 if sustained over a full season—but it also isn’t bad. It’s around replacement level. And, given the White Sox have one of the worst defenses in baseball this year, the “fielding independent” part is meaningful. Joe Kelly’s generating a career high portion of ground balls. The White Sox’ infielders only look good on paper when they’re compared to the White Sox’ outfielders.
xERA, meanwhile, says what a pitcher’s ERA would be if every ball put in play against said pitcher achieved the expected outcome given its exit velocity and launch angle. Joe Kelly’s is, per Statcast, 4.49. That’s worse than replacement level for a reliever, and it’s our guy’s worst since 2016, but it’s also the kind of number that, if put on a jumbotron while Joe Kelly entered the game, would not elicit the same reaction as 9.49 does.
Basically, Joe Kelly’s fine. He isn’t pitching great but his bad luck is what’s getting that noticed, not the pitching itself. His fastball velocity is right where it’s been the last few years. Opponents’ average exit velocity against him is currently the lowest of his career, a career which includes 2020, when he was suspended for the equivalent of nearly a month and was also hurt for a stretch and relatedly managed to avoid letting a single hitter “barrel” a ball all season. He’s walking batters all over the place, but that and seeing-eye groundballs are the only two ways they’re getting on base.
Numbers don’t lie.
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We’re trying a new thing where, when we run out of time, we just say that we’re out of time and push everything else we wanted to talk about back to tomorrow. So, for those looking for any other news today, sorry. These are only Joe Kelly notes. If you want to read about the people in Oregon who are trying to make their counties part of Idaho, here you go, and if you want to read today’s edition of Bevo’s Fake Nuts, which talks Texas, the Big 12, and conference realignment, you can do that too. In fact, please do both those things. I’d appreciate it.
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Viewing schedule for tonight:
8:10 PM EDT: Cubs @ Brewers (MLB TV)
Kyle Hendricks has now put together two good starts in a row for the first time since May, and the Cubs might be trading him in a few weeks, and I don’t know how to fell about anything.
8:10 PM EDT: Twins @ White Sox (MLB TV, second screen)
I really don’t think he’s getting in the game tonight. Who knows with La Russa, though.
