There are no easy games in the NIT.
This is a true thing that we’re saying here. The NIT field is tightly bunched in quality, with even the automatic bids falling back to a better baseline than NCA* *********t automatic bids because the NIT ones had to be the best in their league over a whole season instead of being the ones to survive three days. This can make the NIT maddening, with few sure things and immediate stakes. But what is sport without risk? Enjoy Houston’s next game, haters.
On the NITe, we had one A+ game, a collection of A’s and B’s, and three that probably fell around the C range. Even those thankfully gave us storylines in the way of championship implications. That’s another nice thing about the NIT. With only 32 teams in the field, when it’s on, it’s on. Round of 16 this weekend. Win or go home. The action only intensifies.
Let’s go through these chronologically, with what happened in each game, what each means within this NIT, and one additional thought on each. Then, on to toNITe.
Michigan 90, Toledo 80
What happened:
Toledo did jump out to that lead we expected, forcing a couple quick turnovers and getting easy baskets off those. Michigan was quick to rally, though, and scalded the nets, hitting 57% of its threes to bury the Rockets.
What it means for this NIT:
Michigan has to go on the road next, but they could be favored when that line comes out. The Wolverines aren’t yet one of the tournament favorites, but they do have that air of capability about them, which is something to look for in these champions. Basically, you want a team who knows what it’s doing.
One additional thought:
While we were on top of Toledo’s offense, we looked past their defense. Quite bad on defense, it turns out. Really makes sense when you think about it. If their defense was even mediocre, that top-5 offense nationally probably would’ve left them at least in the NIT at-large mix, instead of being a pure auto bid.
Hofstra 88, Rutgers 86 (OT)
What happened:
This was not a conventional NIT script. Rutgers came out strong, carried a five-point lead into the break, and looked like they were going to pull away. Even after taking a Flying Dutchmen punch (I think we just need to keep using this nickname for Hofstra instead of the real one, kind of like the Beekeepers movement), Rutgers looked like it had the game won. Caleb McConnell’s putback dunk made it a three-point game, Caleb McConnell scored again quickly to make it a five-point game, and then things got weird. Despite trailing by five with thirty seconds left, Hofstra somehow won this thing in overtime, Nelson Boachie-Yiadom hitting the game-tying shot and Tyler Thomas making the winner five basketball minutes later. Derek Simpson put up a good attempt at the buzzer, but it did not bounce in.
What it means for this NIT:
One of the best teams in this thing on paper is out, and now the winner of Cincinnati/Virginia Tech likely gets a home game in the second round (definitely if it’s Cincinnati, probably if it’s the Hokies). New Mexico becomes the highest remaining seed in its region, meaning the Lobos won’t have to travel anymore unless there are scheduling conflicts. Of even greater importance…Hofstra looked good. This didn’t look like an accident. Aaron Estrada fouled out with seven minutes left and they still came back and won.
It’s possible this was just a single great game by Hofstra, but with Cincinnati and Virginia Tech not exactly world beaters, we’ve got someone to keep an eye on. We might have a situation where the CAA powers really were pretty good, and both of them just didn’t play anybody.
One additional thought:
It sucks to see a good NIT crowd lose. We’re happy for Hofstra, of course, but Rutgers fans showed up for this game, and Rutgers fans got loud, and it would’ve been nice to see them rewarded. I feel this weird sense of being responsible for asking people to attend NIT games—which I’m not—and therefore responsible for them getting the results they deserve—which I’m also not—and that’s leading me to want to apologize to Rutgers fans or something.
UAB 88, Southern Miss 60
What happened:
We didn’t really watch a minute of this game. Background noise. Southern Miss had a good start, and Southern Miss hung around, but by the time we finished things in Piscataway the Blazers were putting this cat away. Big game from KJ Buffen, I see. 26 points, 12 boards. Jelly Walker was quieter. Only took eight threes.
What it means for this NIT:
UAB will most likely play Clemson on the road this weekend, with the Tigers hosting Morehead State tonight. We’d expect the line on that to be within a possession. If Clemson wins, it’s full chalk in that quadrant.
One additional thought:
I learned that in addition to UAB fans calling Southern Miss the Mustard Buzzers, they also call them the Piss Vultures. So that’s a fun nugget. Interesting that both framings accuse Southern Miss of being scavengers. Common theme. Guess UAB fans prefer to kill their own meat. Zuckerberg or Armie Hammer-style.
Vanderbilt 71, Yale 62
What happened:
Yale came out colder than cold. Vanderbilt had this thing in their pocket within the first few minutes. That doesn’t mean it didn’t get interesting—Yale cut the lead down healthily within the single digits in the second half—but this was Vanderbilt’s night. It was a school night, after all, at least to Yale’s academic and athletic internal rhythm. Honestly, kind of a bad look for Vanderbilt playing as well as they did. Maybe that’s why they let so conspicuously off the gas after halftime.
Yale’s comeback ultimately disintegrated when guys just started chucking and playing iso ball. Admittedly, this may be what works for them, I haven’t broken down any Yale film or anything this year, but it looks like they panicked more when they got close than they did while still far away, like someone getting too frustrated with the final step of a long task and blowing up the whole thing.
What it means for this NIT:
Vanderbilt’s into the part of the tournament where fans get behind their teams, even if they were initially disinterested. I wouldn’t say Vanderbilt had a bad crowd last night—it’s hard to tell on TV with that place unless the game is really up for grabs—but students are on spring break there, undergrad dorms are closed, and now that they’re through the first round we might see a surge of support. Unfortunately for the Commodores, that’s going to be harder with spring break still going on this weekend, when Michigan visits on Saturday. I’d think there’ll be a decent crowd, especially with so many Vandy fans and alums located in and around Nashville, but don’t expect something like what we saw at Rutgers.
One additional thought:
I’d forgotten that the margin against Alabama was 57 points. 57! Man. That was something.
Liberty 62, Villanova 57
What happened:
Cam Whitmore and Justin Moore were absent after all, and Villanova’s season went out with a whimper. They played Liberty tough—the Flames could never quite pull away—but there was never a moment where it looked like Nova was going to take it. Not a bad game—the margin never reached double digits—but goodness gracious, Villanova could not buy a bucket. Brutal offensive outing.
What it means for this NIT:
With Rutgers done, Liberty is currently the fifth-best team by KenPom left in this thing. That traditionally means something.
One additional thought:
Incredible that Darius McGhee has the shooting numbers he has on the same rims Villanova used to go 4 for 26 from deep.
Wisconsin 81, Bradley 62
What happened:
Steven Crowl dunked all over Bradley.
What it means for this NIT:
Wisconsin looked good. They looked the best I’ve personally seen them play this year, and I haven’t watched all their games or anything but looking through their numbers, I’m getting more and more convinced that’s what happened. Because the thing about Bradley is that their defense is better than Iowa’s, and better than what Marquette’s was in December. And Crowl just kept being there with the ball and nothing between him and the rim again, and again, and again.
The Badgers should get to host on Sunday. That works with the high school state tournament, as far as we understand it. Just waiting on the TV schedule. This is a big development. Wisconsin hosting probably makes them a narrow favorite against Liberty. On the road they might’ve been a five-point underdog. Win that, and they’re one Oregon loss away from hosting next week with a trip to Las Vegas on the line.
One additional thought:
Jourdan Love was one of the officials. It was a sign.
Eastern Washington 81, Washington State 74
What happened:
Steele Venters, primarily. The guy scored 27, he only took 18 shots from the floor, and he hit the shot with 16 seconds left to put the Eagles on top by three just a minute after DJ Rodman had the Cougs set to escape.
Eastern Washington jumped on Wazzu, leading by nine at the half as Washington State struggled to adapt to the absence of Mouhamed Gueye, a surprising inactive thanks to what was evidently a hamstring injury. The Cougars clawed back into it, largely thanks to Rodman’s offensive efforts, but they failed to finish inside the arc and after pulling ahead by a decent number in the second half, they gave it right back.
What it means for this NIT:
This is a big break for Oklahoma State, potentially, or for Youngstown or North Texas or Santa Clara or Sam Houston State. Washington State is a tough team to beat. Eastern Washington just took care of that for everybody else.
One additional thought:
It’s a bummer to not get Kyle Smith and this team back in the NIT Final Four, but it was also disappointing to see how empty Beasley Coliseum stood. Eastern Washington’s a fun team. Glad to have them around for another game.
Colorado 65, Seton Hall 64
It was a hell of an effort from Seton Hall, who took the lead on a KC Ndefo three-point play inside the final minute only to see Julian Hammond score what turned out to be the winner on the next trip down the floor. Back and forth game, some big swings, to be honest we had our eyes more on Washington State and Eastern Washington. Partially because we thought for a stretch there that Colorado was finishing Seton Hall off. (They weren’t!)
What it means for this NIT:
Colorado didn’t look great, and while they’ve always been up and down this year, that’s kind of their deal, the combination of that and the absence of KJ Simpson makes them not particularly scary. Things can change in instants, but at the moment, that corner of the bracket looks pretty good for Cincinnati and New Mexico.
One additional thought:
I would love to see an attendance graph, game by game, over KC Ndefo’s career.
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Beyond those games, the only development is that we do have an experimental rule: They’re trying an additional TV timeout, as I understand it. So instead of timeouts below the 16/12/8/4-minute mark each half, they’re now at the 17/14/11/8/4-minute mark, at least for the NIT. I would assume this is accompanied by shorter commercials, but we’ll see. Wish they were trying new replay rules. Maybe they are and I didn’t catch that.
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As far as toNITe…
You can still read about all these schools in our 2023 NIT Preview from yesterday, but for here, we’re just asking one question around each game. The games, then, and their questions:
7:00 PM EDT: UCF @ Florida (ESPN2)
Which UCF shows up? Florida’s been uninspiring but rather consistent this year, settling into a new normal in recent weeks after the loss of Colin Castleton. UCF, on the other hand, continues to be all over the place. Their most recent iteration isn’t as good as their best, but it’s good enough to be a realistic upset winner, especially if UCF fans make the trip up to Gainesville (which they might).
7:00 PM EDT: Oklahoma State @ Youngstown State (ESPN+)
Will location be a factor? Oklahoma State has to go on the road here, due to a scheduling conflict back in Stillwater, and while we don’t expect Youngstown to match some of the Big 12 environments these Pokes are used to, if that gym fills up it can get very uncomfortable. Factor in all those other parts of home court advantage—the routine, the absence of a flight or drive, etc.—and Youngstown certainly has some sort of shot here. Do they make Oklahoma State uncomfortable enough?
7:00 PM EDT: Morehead State @ Clemson (ESPN+)
Does Morehead have any sort of chance? Clemson isn’t the best team in this tournament, and unless it plays at its best every game, Clemson isn’t one of the four best, even with yesterday’s eliminations. Still, Morehead and Alcorn State are the worst teams in it, the ones we really can’t see winning. It would take something wacky, but wacky does happen here.
8:00 PM EDT: Alcorn State @ North Texas (ESPN+)
It is a very similar situation in Denton to what it is in Clemson. Repeat that last blurb, more or less.
9:00 PM EDT: Virginia Tech @ Cincinnati (ESPN2)
Is Virginia Tech good? It’s a little befuddling how this team was so much better last year, but here we are, and they just aren’t the shooters they were. Cincinnati’s done its share of bad losing, but it’s all been away from home. The home losses have been respectable. The implication of that, if it’s fire and not just smoke, is that Virginia Tech will have to go in there and take it, and that Cincinnati is not going to give it to them.
9:00 PM EDT: Sam Houston State @ Santa Clara (ESPN+)
How good is good in the WAC? Sam Houston State looked the part of a convincing mid-major for almost the entire season, which is to say that they still more or less look the part. They’re scrappy, they’re aggressive, and they mounted a great campaign within the confines of the Western Athletic Conference. Is that enough, though? How good is medium in the WCC?
10:00 PM EDT: Utah Valley @ New Mexico (ESPN+)
What’s the environment like in Albuquerque? It’s easy to see Lobo fans showing up in force, but maybe that’s giving them too much credit. Or too little? You can spin these things. Utah Valley isn’t a pushover. My impression is lower ceiling than Sam Houston State, but a good, strong median. The WAC was solid this year. Maybe we can get both these two to the Final Four and some ACC flameouts elsewhere could get people talking.
11:00 PM EDT: UC Irvine @ Oregon (ESPN2)
Is the Pac-12 for real? Colorado’s still in the tournament but didn’t exactly inspire, Washington State’s done, and Oregon’s left with a lot of weight on its shoulders. Maybe they’ll expand to add North Texas before the week’s over.
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We’ll have live reactions on Twitter and delayed reactions everywhere else. See you out there, NIT fans.
