It’s do-or-die in St. Louis.
| Team 1 | Team 2 | NIT Leverage |
| Bradley | Drake | 1.97 |
| Winthrop | High Point | 0.99 |
| North Alabama | Lipscomb | 0.99 |
| Furman | Chattanooga | 0.60 |
| Iowa | Nebraska | 0.50 |
| Washington State | San Francisco | 0.45 |
| Weber State | Northern Colorado | 0.38 |
| Minnesota | Rutgers | 0.28 |
| UAB | Tulane | 0.15 |
| Oregon | Washington | 0.09 |
| Pepperdine | Santa Clara | 0.09 |
| Hampton | UNC Wilmington | 0.06 |
| East Carolina | Florida Atlantic | 0.05 |
| Arkansas State | South Alabama | 0.04 |
| Tulsa | Wichita State | 0.03 |
| North Texas | Temple | 0.02 |
We’ve got sixteen games today with some sort of NIT stakes. In seven of them, the stakes are small. In two, the stakes are real but marginal. In four, the stakes are big but we’re not yet to matters of life and death. In two, lives hang in the balance. In one…the fate of the universe is on the line?
Game of the NITe of the Afternoon of the Day of the Lord
- Drake vs. Bradley (2:15 PM EDT, CBS)
| Team | NIT % w Win | NIT % w Loss |
| Bradley | 0% | 99% |
| Drake | 0% | 99% |
Loser goes to the NIT. Winner goes to the NCAA T*urnament, where there is wailing and gnashing of teeth. This. Is. Arch.
NIT Play-Ins
- High Point vs. Winthrop (12:00 PM EDT, ESPN2)
- North Alabama at Lipscomb (2:00 PM EDT, ESPN2)
| Team | NIT % w Win | NIT % w Loss |
| High Point | 0% | 99% |
| Lipscomb | 0% | 99% |
The stakes are just as high in Johnson City and Nashville, but only for one team apiece. To say it out loud: Winthrop and North Alabama have nothing to play for in these games. That only increases the level of difficulty for High Point and Lipscomb, who’ve each failed in their two previous attempts to lock in that automatic bid.
Last Chance?
- Iowa at Nebraska (12:30 PM EDT, FOX)
- San Francisco vs. Washington State (11:00 PM EDT, ESPN2)
- Minnesota at Rutgers (1:00 PM EDT, BTN)
- Oregon at Washington (3:00 PM EDT, BTN)
- Santa Clara vs. Pepperdine (8:30 PM EDT, ESPN2)
- UNC Wilmington vs. Hampton (6:00 PM EDT, FloSports)
- South Alabama vs. Arkansas State (6:00 PM EDT, ESPN+)
| Team | NIT % w Win | NIT % w Loss |
| Nebraska | 6% | 46% |
| Washington State | 41% | 3% |
| Minnesota | 66% | 40% |
| Iowa | 48% | 38% |
| Washington | 11% | 2% |
| Santa Clara | 90% | 99% |
| San Francisco | 93% | 99% |
| UNC Wilmington | 7% | 1% |
| Arkansas State | 18% | 22% |
| Rutgers | 50% | 48% |
It’s single-elimination season, and with Iowa/Nebraska effectively a Big Ten Tournament play-in, this could conceivably be the last pre-NIT game for eight of these ten teams. Only. Minnesota and Rutgers are assured of another game.
Nebraska’s trying to pump the brakes. Minnesota, Iowa, and Rutgers are trying to push into stronger position. Washington State’s trying to keep the run alive long enough to draw notice. Santa Clara and San Francisco are torn between playing for seeding and locking in the berth. UNC Wilmington and Arkansas State are attempting a feat of precision, looking to impress as much as they can without accidentally landing in the NCAA T*urnament’s malicious hands. Washington? They’re already out of the Big Ten Tournament. One shot to make people take a look.
Best Chance?
- Chattanooga vs. Furman (4:00 PM EDT, ESPNU)
- Northern Colorado vs. Weber State (7:30 PM EDT, ESPN+)
| Team | NIT % w Win | NIT % w Loss |
| Chattanooga | 39% | 99% |
| Northern Colorado | 60% | 99% |
| Furman | 1% | 0% |
These are only the SoCon semifinals and Big Sky quarters, so Chattanooga gets one more chance if they win today and Northern Colorado gets two. They can’t let too many opportunities pass by, though. Look how nervous Lipscomb and High Point are right now. Look at Bradley and Drake, who’ve played themselves into a game of chicken. Look at Kevin Keatts, who lost his job this morning after playing with matches last March, when he won the ACC Tournament and missed the NIT.
These aren’t only games, friends.
These are lives.
Theirs and ours alike.
Viewing Guide
Here’s our itinerary:
- Noon – Order McDonald’s breakfast. Don’t feel any shame about the second Coke. They’re the ones who put Daylight Savings in the middle of Champ Week.
- Early afternoon – Decide whether you want Drake or Bradley in the NIT. You have to decide. There will be a straw poll.
- Mid-afternoon – Text people you’re not sure are watching. Say, “Arch Madness, holy shit.” This will make them think they should be watching. They should be watching. Do they like the NIT or not?
- Early evening – Walk the dog. Try half-heartedly to find an online radio feed of the UNCW/Hampton game. Hope UNCW just wins so you can try again tomorrow. End up with the Arkansas State ESPN+ feed in your headphones despite it freezing multiple times.
- Night – Order pizza, whether you’ve eaten dinner yet or not. Speculate rampantly about Marcus Williams’s suspension.
- Later at night – Stare at a blank wall for ten straight minutes. This is an ancient Buddhist practice designed for this exact kind of day. After too many hours spent in rapturous NIT fanhood, the Lama has always resorted to blank walls to get himself calm enough to sleep. Remember: If you don’t go to sleep, you won’t get to see the NIT in your dreams.
The American Athletic Conference
- East Carolina at Florida Atlantic (1:00 PM EDT, ESPN+)
- UAB at Tulane (2:00 PM EDT, ESPN+)
- North Texas at Temple (2:00 PM EDT, ESPN+)
| Team | NIT % w Win | NIT % w Loss |
| UAB | 37% | 22% |
| Florida Atlantic | 5% | 0% |
| Wichita State | 3% | 0% |
| North Texas | 70% | 72% |
Sorry, I forgot about the AAC. How dare I?! UAB’s still in the hunt! Everyone else is either pretty safely in (UNT) or pretty clearly out.
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