Champ Week has reached its apex. It’s all downhill from here. Each day between now and Sunday, there will be fewer NIT-impacting games than the last. But what we lack in quantity, we make up for in the scope of our intrigue. We’re like Lance Armstrong that way.
| Team 1 | Team 2 | NIT Leverage |
| Saint Louis | Loyola Chicago | 1.00 |
| North Carolina | Duke | 0.81 |
| St. Bonaventure | VCU | 0.79 |
| Kennesaw State | Liberty | 0.70 |
| UC Santa Barbara | UC San Diego | 0.67 |
| Toledo | Akron | 0.61 |
| Boise State | New Mexico | 0.52 |
| Seattle | Utah Valley | 0.49 |
| Utah State | Colorado State | 0.47 |
| Saint Joseph’s | Dayton | 0.46 |
| Cal Poly | UC Irvine | 0.43 |
| Tulsa | North Texas | 0.35 |
| George Washington | George Mason | 0.21 |
| Florida Atlantic | Tulane | 0.20 |
| East Carolina | UAB | 0.11 |
| California Baptist | Grand Canyon | 0.10 |
| Wichita State | Memphis | 0.02 |
| Middle Tennessee | Jacksonville State | 0.01 |
Six-Bid A-10?
- 11:30 AM EDT: VCU vs. St. Bonaventure (USA)
- 2:00 PM EDT: Loyola Chicago vs. Saint Louis (USA)
- 5:00 PM EDT: George Mason vs. George Washington (USA)
- 7:30 PM EDT: Dayton vs. Saint Joseph’s (Peacock)
Real plot twist putting that last one on the ‘Cock.
We think we can get six Atlantic 10 teams into the NIT, but it’s going to take George Washington winning the A-10 Tournament. VCU, George Mason, and Dayton are all getting Invited with a loss. The Bonnies and Saint Joe’s are on the right side of the cut line. The SLU/Loyola winner should rise into our field. This is what we want. We want an NIT packed to the gills with the Atlantic 10. At this moment in history, that’s what’s right for both of us.
| Team | NIT % w Win | NIT % w Loss |
| VCU | 37% | 99% |
| Loyola Chicago | 56% | 6% |
| Saint Louis | 55% | 5% |
| Dayton | 74% | 99% |
| Saint Joseph’s | 68% | 89% |
| St. Bonaventure | 76% | 93% |
| George Mason | 84% | 99% |
| George Washington | 6% | 0% |
The American Dream
- 1:00 PM EDT: Memphis vs. Wichita State (ESPN2)
- 3:00 PM EDT: Tulane vs. Florida Atlantic (ESPN2)
- 7:00 PM EDT: North Texas vs. Tulsa (ESPNU)
- 9:00 PM EDT: UAB vs. East Carolina (ESPNU)
Memphis vs. Wichita State might be the actual biggest game of the day for bubble teams, given how wide-reaching a bid thief’s impact would be. In our world, though, we’re looking at getting UNT that Invitation, and we’re waiting to see which of FAU and UAB will step in line for the call if UNT wins the AAC Tournament instead.
| Team | NIT % w Win | NIT % w Loss |
| North Texas | 64% | 99% |
| Florida Atlantic | 20% | 0% |
| UAB | 26% | 14% |
| Wichita State | 2% | 0% |
UNC vs. The Haters
- 7:00 PM EDT: Duke vs. North Carolina (ESPN)
It still seems like we’ll get UNC with a UNC loss tonight. But Cooper Flagg’s out, so…? Maybe we could get UNC even with a UNC win. Yes, you’re right. I’m preemptively coping.
| Team | NIT % w Win | NIT % w Loss |
| North Carolina | 3% | 83% |
The Last Important Basketball Happening in Las Vegas
- 9:30 PM EDT: New Mexico vs. Boise State (CBSSN)
- 12:00 AM EDT: Colorado State vs. Utah State (CBSSN)
Utah State’s probably toast, but Boise State and Colorado State are playing for every marble in the western half of the United States. 1-seeds on the line. Home games on the line. The chance of getting stuck in the NCAA T*urnament on the line. Thrills and chills, boys. Thrills and chills.
| Team | NIT % w Win | NIT % w Loss |
| Boise State | 47% | 99% |
| Colorado State | 52% | 99% |
| Utah State | 0% | 1% |
The Real National Championship
- 12:30 PM EDT: Liberty vs. Kennesaw State (CBSSN)
- 3:00 PM EDT: Jacksonville State vs. Middle Tennessee (CBSSN)
We still support the notion that Conference USA should name its champion the national champion, on account of it being named USA. In other news, we’re still waiting to see who’ll get this exempt bid. Liberty can claim it with a loss. Middle Tennessee’s at-large case isn’t great, but it does exist.
| Team | NIT % w Win | NIT % w Loss |
| Liberty | 28% | 99% |
| Middle Tennessee | 56% | 57% |
| Jacksonville State | 1% | 1% |
WAC & MAC
- 5:00 PM EDT: Akron vs. Toledo (CBSSN)
- 9:00 PM EDT: Utah Valley vs. Seattle (ESPN+)
- 11:30 PM EDT: Grand Canyon vs. Cal Baptist (ESPNU)
We’re combining these two for no other reason than their collective immense charm.
Akron’s in with a loss, as an automatic bid. Utah Valley’s in with a loss, as an automatic bid. Grand Canyon’s trying to choose between risking it all by reaching the WAC Championship or settling for a very bubbly final résumé. This is why that school makes so much money. It teaches its students how to navigate difficult situations.
| Team | NIT % w Win | NIT % w Loss |
| Akron | 38% | 99% |
| Utah Valley | 50% | 99% |
| Grand Canyon | 28% | 38% |
The BIG BIG BIG West
- 9:00 PM EDT: UC San Diego vs. UC Santa Barbara (ESPN+)
- 11:30 PM EDT: UC Irvine vs. Cal Poly (ESPN2)
Big doesn’t begin to describe this West.
This conference has an exempt bid, and Cal State Northridge could get it if both UCSD and UCI win. Could. More likely, it goes to whoever loses tomorrow, but could.
| Team | NIT % w Win | NIT % w Loss |
| UC San Diego | 32% | 99% |
| UC Irvine | 56% | 99% |
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