Watching video of Lincoln Riley trying to figure out what the hell was going on at his introductory…pep rally? Was that what that was? Watching video of Lincoln Riley trying to figure out what the hell was going on at his introductory pep rally, I realized something. I’d assumed Riley would win the breakup. I’d assumed he’d flip a bunch of recruits to USC, march through a weak Pac-12 in two years to make the playoff, and look up to find Oklahoma struggling for bowl eligibility while children sobbed in Norman and grandfathers up in Moore waxed poetic about yesteryear. So far…he’s losing it. He’s losing the breakup. That doesn’t mean he’ll lose it forever, but right now, he’s losing it.
Let’s go through all the big ones:
Oklahoma vs. Lincoln Riley
Currently Winning: Oklahoma
Brent Venables came in on fire, which is exactly what you’d expect out of that man. I don’t know if Venables was the recruiting force driving Clemson. I don’t know if Venables was the “strength and conditioning” force driving Clemson. But Venables was clearly a great assistant coach, and he’s clearly fired up about being Oklahoma’s head coach, and if you’re Oklahoma, that’s everything you could want right now.
Long-Term Favorite: Riley
I’m sorry, but the fundamentals are there. USC might be trying to bring back Saved by the Bell in its media interactions, but on the field, Riley can coach, and it’s hard not to recruit well at USC. Oklahoma’s facing big headwinds. USC’s getting some big tailwinds.
Notre Dame vs. Brian Kelly
Currently Winning: Notre Dame
Notre Dame is winning this breakup more emphatically than they’ve lost each of their last seven major bowl games. They’re getting a little corny (sources indicate an email went out advertising a $100 #FreemanEra t-shirt the other day), which is risky for them, but the vibes are theirs right now. The players love Freeman. The media loves Freeman. Everybody is finally free to hate Kelly. Kelly, God willing, is doubling down on the southern accent, and his face is slowly getting redder as he loses his focus and the demon starts leaking out again. It’s a bad situation in Baton Rouge.
Long-Term Favorite: Everyone
Ok, it isn’t a bad situation in Baton Rouge. Kelly’s one of the game’s most successful coaches in recent years, right there behind Saban and Meyer and Swinney, and LSU’s in a great place to recruit (that place is named Louisiana). As many of us have heard, each of the last three head coaches at LSU have won a national championship. Kelly well might get his.
In South Bend, though, it isn’t a bad situation either. Freeman can seemingly recruit better than Kelly could, and like Venables, he seems capable of at least coaching a defense, which isn’t a bad sign for his potential to effectively coach a whole team. With five ACC games a year and the ACC a big bucket of sewer backflow right now, Notre Dame’s got tailwinds, as Kelly’s shown these last four or five years. The floor is low, but the ceiling is higher than Kelly’s was.
You can picture these teams playing in a playoff, right? Kind of soon?
Florida vs. Dan Mullen
Currently Winning: Florida
The only bad thing about Florida firing Mullen is that we all found out what a mess that program had become. And while it’s impressive Mullen was able to win as much as he did while running the program the way he did, it’s not a great kind of impressive.
Long-Term Favorite: Florida
Tailwinds. Strong tailwinds. Even with Georgia getting better. And Billy Napier seems like he can run a program.
Louisiana-Lafayette vs. Billy Napier
Currently Winning: Everyone
This is a weird situation where ULL seems legitimately excited for Napier, and with good reason: Napier put ULL on the map. Being good enough to send Florida their head coach? That’ll play, and by promoting Michael Desormeaux they got 1) a guy with a French last name and 2) continuity points.
Long-Term Favorite: Napier
ULL has promise, and the Sun Belt seems to be a well-run football conference, but Napier’s sitting on a pot of gold, and I’m not just talking about money.
TCU vs. Gary Patterson
Currently Winning: Nobody
TCU made a fine hire in Sonny Dykes, but it’s mostly just an awkward situation.
Long-Term Favorite: Patterson
He did some really big things for that athletic department, and while he said and did a few concerning things, they seem like the kinds of things TCU people will gladly forget when they’re yearning for the Patterson years on down the line.
Oregon vs. Mario Cristobal
Currently Winning: Cristobal
Cristobal won the press conference at Miami, where it’s easy to recruit and the conference, as we’ve said, is winnable rather immediately. (Clemson’s only strength this year was its defense, which Venables just left; and UNC has great vibes but a mediocre team.) I don’t know who Oregon will hire. There’s no obvious slam dunk. A slam dunk might pop up, but nobody’s an immediately obvious fit.
Long-Term Favorite: Oregon
Have you seen how Miami handled this? You think you can sustainably win at a school that dysfunctional? Oregon isn’t what it was, but you can recruit decently there, and recruiting decently is enough to win the Pac-12 North, and in a twelve-team playoff world, winning the Pac-12 North should be enough to make some playoffs.
Miami vs. Manny Diaz
Currently Winning: Diaz
Diaz came out with a lot of money and not that bad a track record at Miami. Miami’s undoubtedly in a better place now, but when Diaz’s buyout is over, he’ll get a job as the head coach at a Group of Five school, which isn’t a bad life. Lot of money in the meantime to not coach, which is also not a bad life.
Long-Term Favorite: Diaz
Miami has more upside, but again: Did you see how Miami handled this?
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There are others, but aside from my lingering curiosity about why Colorado State was so easily able to pluck the head coach away from a conference rival, there’s nothing that interesting. Virginia Tech vs. Justin Fuente just isn’t good material, guys. Somebody start a (small, responsible) riot.
