Per Joe, we’re getting close to daily bracketology season. Also per Joe, we’re still ironing out some conference tournaments and postponements/makeups in our model, so if you notice something weird with an automatic bid between now and when the NCAA announces we aren’t doing NIT auto-bids this year, let us know.
Anyway. Updated NIT Bracketology this morning. Here’s the NITuation:
Movin’ Out (Anthony’s Song): Drake, Xavier, Michigan State, Davidson, UNC-Greensboro (auto-bid)
If you limit it to the 16-team field, it’s just Drake and Xavier. But we’ll give you the full NIT experience until the 16-team field’s official (if it ends up being legitimate and not a hoax designed to sow confusion amongst the NIT community). Davidson lost Sunday. Michigan State’s Indiana win didn’t hold up as well as was initially thought. UNC-Greensboro got mathed out (there’s a new 12th-likeliest auto-bid).
As for Drake and Xavier:
Drake missed out on two losable games to Evansville in Des Moines, and they’re now in a boat where they might need three losses from here out to make the NIT. Those losses are attainable—they play Bradley twice in Peoria this weekend, and then they’ll be an underdog at Arch Madness—and two might get the job done (if they’re the right two), but the Bulldogs have work to do.
Xavier, meanwhile, is in a manageable spot. They’re right on the bubble, where they can keep their finger on the pulse and make a last-second maneuver if they need to. Great times in the private-school part of Cincinnati.
Moving In: Seton Hall, Penn State, Notre Dame, St. John’s, Prairie View A&M (auto-bid)
PVAM’s the new 12th-likeliest.
Notre Dame and St. John’s aren’t in the 16-team field, but they’re at least close. Mike Brey’s team is probably just one win-they-shouldn’t away, with a trip to Louisville and a visit from Florida State both still on the menu. The same’s probably true for Mike Anderson, and hey, did you guys know Mike Anderson’s at St. John’s now? The UAB guy! Forty minutes of hell! Had no idea. Probably knew that at some point and forgot it. Anyway, SJU’s in the mix still.
As far as the real contenders…
Seton Hall is back. The most glorious of potential NIT runs continues, as the Pirates popped back up like Gandalf the White, breaking a four-game fast to lose at Georgetown on Saturday. They were close Sunday morning, and the Drake shuffle brought them in. Amazing.
Meanwhile, Penn State is five games under .500, has lost to Nebraska at home, but has those wins over Virginia Tech and VCU and Wisconsin and Rutgers and Maryland, and our model says, “You know, that’s a pretty NIT résumé” but our model doesn’t know humanity’s view of teams five games under .500. So we’ll see. If they lose in Lincoln tonight it might be a mercy killing.
Teams on NIT Turf Who Are Too Likely to Win Their Conference Tournament
Winthrop and Marshall would both be 5-seeds were they not limited by the ease of their conference tournament paths.
The Sixteen
Here’s how the 16-team bracket would shape up:
1. Seton Hall
16. Syracuse
8. Duke
9. Richmond
5. Georgia Tech
12. Memphis
4. UC-Santa Barbara
13. Toledo
3. Western Kentucky
14. Saint Louis
6. UConn
11. Penn State
7. Stanford
10. Belmont
2. Indiana
15. Saint Mary’s
Got a Josh Pastner origin story, an Old Big East first rounder, an if-only-this-game-was-in-New-York-for-the-attendance-numbers, and Duke still in the field with some wiggle room. Pretty good NIT if you ask me.
Next in Line
Below the field, from closest to close:
Winthrop
Marshall
Utah State
Mississippi
Kentucky
Louisiana Tech
Navy
Notre Dame
St. John’s
Michigan State
North Texas
Dayton
(Georgia, since someone asked)
Next out of Line
Above the field, from closest to close:
Xavier
SMU
Wichita State
Minnesota
Colgate
Louisville
Colorado State
Drake
Oregon
UCLA
Maryland
Florida
***
And that’s the NITuation.
The rest of today’s notes:
- Duke beat Syracuse last night and it doesn’t seem to have changed anything. Possible we’ll get a delayed reaction tomorrow, but wouldn’t expect it to be a full seed line.
- Oregon’s hanging around after the loss to USC last night.
- Saint Mary’s avoided a bad home one to Pepperdine.
- We’ve discussed Drake already.
- Saint Louis visits VCU this evening. Lot of curiosity there. Wonder if SLU’s résumé’s more elastic because they’ve played so few games.
- Georgia Tech’s in Blacksburg. Can probably afford a road win but might not want to risk it.
- That ND/Louisville game’s tonight. Louisville is sneaky close. ACC’s got an opportunity here.
- Georgia hosts LSU. Nice opportunity there for the Dawgs, but Will Wade’s probably already bought the game by taking Tom Crean’s membership card to Dave & Buster’s and holding it as collateral.
- Mississippi plays Mizzou in Columbia. Big chance for a team that looked so good there for a bit. And I’m talking about Mississippi, but it does still apply to Mizzou. Don’t lose faith. If they lose out they could still make the cut.
- Michigan State hosts Illinois in back-against-the-wall time.
- Penn State goes to Nebraska. I don’t know what to say.
- UConn plays at Georgetown, and there’s no way that goes right for the Huskies, I don’t think. No right answer. By which I mean no wrong answer because they are in a GREAT spot for making the NIT.
- St. John’s is at Villanova. The mouse is in the house (I’m going for a cat metaphor here—like, St. John’s knows what it has to do, and it’s possible for them to do it, but it might not be easy).
- Remember TCU? Yeah they’re toast. Just checking in. Bummer, too, because the Jamie Dixon NIT dynasty would be good for all brands.
- Richmond hosts UMass. Tune-up for something, but I don’t know what.
Savor these moments.
