Today’s NIT Bracketology update brings with it a tough-love reminder of the fleeting nature of our own existence—the fragility of human life; the precariousness of our biophysical historic track; the difficulty of remaining in the NIT picture.
Seton Hall, recently only a blurry figure in our lens, over on the high side of those missing the field, is suddenly on the bottom bubble.
How did this happen? Well, Seton Hall lost to Butler. That’s all it took. Butler is bad, Seton Hall lost to them, and the team that just days ago we were celebrating for their return to our grasp now likely needs to at least split their next two games—both of which are eminently losable—to stay in the NIT window.
Savor your time on this earth we call home.
The NITuation:
Movin’ Out (Anthony’s Song): UConn, UNC-Greensboro (auto-bid), James Madison (auto-bid)
UConn did a little dance with Xavier last night, stepping out so their friends in Cincinnati could step in. Courteous, but dumb of the Huskies. Should’ve told SMU to take that spot.
UNC-Greensboro is no longer the SoCon favorite after losing to Western Carolina. Will Wes Miller ever figure it out in North Carolina’s premier city?
And James Madison drops out after we told our model the CAA Tournament’s happening on JMU’s campus. Whoops.
Moving In: UC-Santa Barbara (auto-bid), Xavier, Furman (auto-bid)
Furman! Welcome back. You could be gone at any minute, since we’re still waiting on the formal announcement of the NIT format, but welcome back.
UC-Santa Barbara pops back into our existence as the corollary to the James Madison move. Gauchos are pretty safely in the field so long as they don’t win the Big West Tournament. Or so it appears. Again, the Seton Hall thing makes it tough to be sure.
And Xavier. Xavier lost to Providence last night by 15. It was on the road, so not bad at all. In fact, I’ll say it. Clutch performance.
Teams on NIT Turf Who Are Too Likely to Win Their Conference Tournament
Today this is just Winthrop and Marshall. Winthrop would be a projected 4-seed. Marshall would be a projected 5-seed. So Winthrop isn’t very safe if they lose in the Big South Tourney and the NIT does end up being sixteen teams, but Marshall could fill WKU’s spot if things break right wherever C-USA is doing its thang this year.
The Sixteen
Here’s the projected bracket if it’s 16 teams and they’re seeded without regard for conference or rematch or anything like that:
1. SMU
16. Syracuse
8. Belmont
9. Indiana
5. UC-Santa Barbara
12. Toledo
4. Duke
13. Seton Hall
3. Richmond
14. Saint Mary’s
6. Xavier
11. Penn State
7. Stanford
10. Memphis
2. Western Kentucky
15. Mississippi
In the interests of total clarity, Winthrop and Marshall are each ahead of Syracuse.
Next in Line
Below the 16-team field, from closest to close:
Utah State
Michigan State
Saint Louis
Kentucky
Louisiana Tech
Georgia
Navy
North Texas
Providence
Notre Dame
St. John’s
Abilene Christian
Next out of Line
Above the field, from closest to close:
Wichita State
UConn
Minnesota
Georgia Tech
Colgate
Oregon
Colorado State
Virginia Tech
Drake
North Carolina
Maryland
Louisville
***
And that’s the NITuation.
Other notes today:
- UNC’s loss to Marquette was hilarious. They still need to do more, but even if they don’t, I hope we remember the attempt they made. Heroic.
- Indiana took care of business against Rutgers, which is to say they lost and are now about as safe as one could hope to be in the current setup.
- Don’t get your hopes up yet, NC State fans. Lotta work left to do.
- Memphis marched on, holding Tulane to 46 points. The NIT’s all about defense (if you’re into defense).
- The Horizon League Tournament starts tonight, and with no word on the NIT format, Cleveland State’s chance to keep the HoLo’s auto-bid streak alive is still technically intact. Of course, Cleveland State doesn’t play until…Tuesday? I should check. But you know, they’ve got teams to cheer for and whatnot.
- Michigan State hosts Ohio State tonight. No sudden movements.
- Oregon visits Stanford in a bigtime bubble bash. Yes, Pasch and Walton are on the call. ESPNU.
- Boise State visits San Diego State for the front half of a two-game set. Broncos really need to lose both of those.
- UCLA visits Utah. Not a great opportunity, but a good one.
- Minnesota hosts Northwestern. GREAT opportunity there.
- Western Kentucky’s at Houston. Don’t do anything rash now, Big Red. Point the t-shirt cannon somewhere else. POINT IT SOMEWHERE ELSE BIG RED NO!!!!!
Good luck to all who celebrate.
