Effing Penn State.
Yet again (this happened in 2019, too, and Minnesota/Purdue did it last year) the Nittany Lions have played a brutal schedule, been under .500, and been by all other metrics an expected NIT team. We thought we got this accounted for in our model after 2019. We thought maybe the committee would say something explicit by now. We thought shrinking the field to 16 teams would rid us of them. But they won’t go away. They whooped Minnesota last night, and now they’re in the field in our updated NIT Bracketology while Minnesota’s the first team out. We don’t know. We really don’t know.
The rest of the NITuation:
Movin’ Out (Anthony’s Song): Boise State, Minnesota, Stanford
We celebrated too early on Boise State. Looks like they might need another one.
Minnesota and Stanford each lost badly. They were each expected to lose the game, but not 100% expected, and so we wave goodbye, not knowing if fate will cross our paths again (before next year, when we would assume that at some point we’ll consider each of these teams because I mean these are NIT programs right here).
Moving In: Drake, Indiana, Duke
Drake slides back into the bid thieved seat. Indiana and Duke slide back in to fill Minnesota and Stanford’s spots (I think Indiana’s Big Ten Tournament outlook improved with the Minnesota/Maryland losses, but I didn’t double check that).
Teams Too Likely to Win Their Conference Tournament
Winthrop is a sizable (more than 50%-likely) Big South Tournament favorite, but were they not, they’d slot in between Mississippi and Louisiana Tech.
Next in Line:
Below the field, from closest to close:
Minnesota
Richmond
Stanford
St. John’s
Toledo*
Navy
Marshall
North Carolina State
Belmont*
Kentucky
Mississippi State
Providence
Georgia
Dayton
*Toledo and Belmont are both probably out with a loss, but would win their conference tournament if they don’t lose. Darned if they do, danged if they don’t.
Next out of Line
Above the field, from closest to close:
SMU
Boise State
Xavier
Wichita State
Rutgers
Colgate*
North Carolina
Colorado State
Virginia Tech
Georgia Tech
Maryland
UCLA
St. Bonaventure
*Colgate is the Patriot League favorite (favored over the field, even), but if they lose…come on down?
***
And that’s the NITuation.
Today’s other notes:
- Nice home loss by Seton Hall to UConn to stay in the field.
- Syracuse beat Clemson in the Carrier Dome, which has some people nervous (me, I’m nervous, I love having Jim Boeheim around, he’s so good for content).
- Maryland kept their hopes alive, losing to Northwestern in Evanston.
- St. John’s beat Providence in a big ol’ bubbler. Red Storm’s getting close.
- NC State’s surging. Will the Kevin Keatts prophecy finally be fulfilled? Would guess they’re a win away, if not two. (But then maybe they’re overshooting it?? Woof.)
- Richmond is playing Duquesne right now without Richmond’s leading scorer. They really need this win, and probably one more. Dramatic times.
- Dayton tries to stay alive, dealing with URInation and all the problems it brings.
- Michigan State starts the Michigan home-and-home. Don’t you dare, Sparty.
- Utah State hosts Wyoming. Not worth the risk, Utah State.
I’ve been eating too many tortilla chips.
