You know you’re starting to understand a team when you can identify which guys stink, and man, Nikita Zaitsev stinks right now.
The Final
Toronto 3, Senators 1
How It Happened
The Leafs jumped out to a 2-0 lead, the Sens got it back to 2-1 on a Josh Norris powerplay goal in the second, the Leafs put in the dagger midway through the third. All three Toronto goals came on the Mete/Zaitsev defensive pairing, which isn’t good.
Any Fights?
Only the internal ones we put upon ourselves.
Standings
Atlantic division, as they run:
Florida: 2-0-0 (4 points)
Buffalo: 2-0-0 (4 points)
Toronto: 2-1-0 (4 points)
Tampa Bay: 2-1-0 (4 points)
Detroit: 1-0-1 (3 points)
Boston: 1-0-0 (2 points)
YOUR BELOVED OTTWA SENATORS: 1-1-0 (2 points)
Montreal: 0-3-0 (0 points)
Senators News
It’s still unclear when Brady Tkachuk will make his debut, but there’s a chance it’s today. Michael Del Zotto is expected to sub in, presumably for Victor Mete, though maybe for Zaitsev.
Senators Thoughts
Not a bad loss. You’re gonna lose some to Toronto, they’re good, splitting that opening set is a good result. Would be great to get a point today, though, home against a mediocre team also playing a back-to-back.
Up Next
The Stars! The Dallas ones. Not, like, the people in the tabloids.
***
Whom
Senators vs. Dallas Stars
When
5:00 PM Ottawa Time (EDT)
Television
NHL Network
The Odds
Sens +115; DAL -135; o/u 5½ (u -115) [English translation: The Senators are about 44% likely to win and 56% likely to lose; the expected number of goals is something like 5.4]
The Opponent
The Stars have an overtime win over the Rangers at MSG and a regulation loss to the Bruins in Boston under their belt. Last year, they finished fifth in the Central. In 2020, they won the Western Conference. Coming into the year, Joe’s model had them the 13th-best team in the NHL.
The Senators
In addition to Del Zotto playing, the assumption is Filip Gustavsson will start in goal to avoid playing Anton Forsberg on back-to-back nights.
Generally speaking, getting something like 1.25 points per game (that’s 102.5 on the season) feels like the point where you’d 100% safely be in the playoffs, so while that might be a bit overly cautious in terms of where the cut line will fall, while we await the model’s completion that seems like the target. To be above that line would require a win today, but getting to five points through four games could also consist of an overtime loss today and a win on Thursday when the Sharks come to town.
Of course, preferably, the Senators would win them both, taking care of home games while building some cushion in anticipation of a real gauntlet through the division. So, hopefully they get the win tonight.
