It would’ve been a busy day for the NIT auto-bid picture yesterday, but we aren’t sure there is one. So we’re just gonna leave it at that.
Updated NIT Bracketology. Here’s the NITuation:
Movin’ Out (Anthony’s Song): UC-Santa Barbara (auto-bid), Loyola Marymount, James Madison (auto-bid)
UCSB is no longer likely enough to lose the Big West Tournament to appear in our projected field, something that is augmented by the fact that there are a few scenarios in which UCSB is conscripted into the other tournament as an at-large bid.
Loyola Marymount slipped out after our model looked at NET and SOR and KPI, realized those guys didn’t like the LMU win over Pepperdine as much as expected, and tried to silently leave the room without being noticed.
James Madison lost its leading scorer and then a basketball game, making them no longer the CAA regular season favorite.
Moving In: Providence, Northeastern (auto-bid), North Carolina A&T (auto-bid)
Providence fills the spot LMU vacated. Northeastern is the new CAA favorite. NC A&T takes over one of the auto-bid spots. Hopefully we put the MEAC stuff into our model correctly. That league has not played many games. No shame in that. Keep yourselves healthy. In the Covid sense more than the injury sense but you know what also the injury sense.
Teams on NIT Turf Who Are Too Likely to Win Their Conference Tournament
UCSB would be our top overall seed. Winthrop would still be a 5-seed. North Texas beat Marshall last night and now fills Marshall’s role as team-who-would-be-a-5-seed.
The Sixteen
Here’s the projected bracket if it’s 16 teams and they’re seeded without regard for conference or rematch or anything like that:
1. Xavier
16. Syracuse
8. Stanford
9. Western Kentucky
5. Indiana
12. Toledo
4. Seton Hall
13. Saint Louis
3. Duke
14. Mississippi
6. Richmond
11. Memphis
7. Michigan State
10. Saint Mary’s
2. Minnesota
15. Utah State
The other tournament got a Colorado/Colorado State first-rounder today…*sad face*
Next in Line
Below the 16-team field, from closest to close:
Winthrop
North Texas
Penn State
Belmont
Kentucky
Louisiana Tech
Georgia
Providence
St. John’s
Marshall
Abilene Christian
Navy
Next out of Line
Above the field, from closest to close:
Wichita State
SMU
Georgia Tech
UConn
Colgate
North Carolina
Virginia Tech
Colorado State
Boise State
Louisville
Drake
Oregon
***
And that’s the NITuation.
Other notes for today:
- Think UCSB’s probably fine to keep winning and just lose in the Big West tournament. Seems like their best option. Pulling for UC-Riverside to make some coin, though.
- Penn State got bodied by Purdue, which is good for our model’s credibility because Penn State’s egregiously tormenting schedule has our model all sorts of confused about them, and it’d be better for everyone involved if Penn State just kept losing and saved us from this questioning.
- Richmond lost at Saint Louis by five. Tactful.
- Utah State avoided a bad home loss to Nevada. Big relief there for the hopefuls.
- Loyola missed an opportunity to rewrite the script on this season, holding on against SIU.
- Curious if there’s a way to get North Texas, Marshall, Louisiana Tech, and Western Kentucky all into the NIT. Curious if I could then call it the USA’s favorite tournament. Curious.
- Kentucky hosts Florida today, looking to keep climbing and create a situation similar to Penn State’s in the sub-.500 sense but with a bigger lightning rod carrying the flag. That might be pretty fun, actually.
- Xavier hosts Creighton. No sudden movements.
- Indiana hosts Michigan. No sudden movements (unless they’re Archie Miller shitting his pants, in which case by all means).
- Duke hosts Louisville. No sudden movements. (Coach K shitting his pants would be sad. He’s reached that level of old.)
- Syracuse goes to Georgia Tech. Could do a lot if they worked together……………….
- North Texas/Marshall rematch get hyped.
- Boise State/San Diego State rematch don’t get quite as hyped but still hope for Boise State to lose and keep their NIT dream alive it’s good for the drama even if you don’t like Boise State.
- UConn hosts Marquette. Not a lot to gain. But a little to gain. Same situation with Minnesota going to Nebraska and Stanford welcoming Oregon State to are they still playing in Santa Cruz?
- Georgia hosts South Carolina. Risky. Frisky. Pairs well with milk and whisky.
- Saint Mary’s is at BYU. Don’t try it, Gaels.
- I think Furman/Wofford is the de facto SoCon regular season championship and I don’t think it matters.
- Drake and Loyola each get another shot—at Bradley, home against SIU respectively.
- Virginia Tech could do it. Wake Forest is in town. That’s a bad loss on the table. Virginia Tech needs a bad loss. I see a possibility, friends.
- Loyola Marymount goes for the Hail Mary at Gonzaga.
Don’t shit your pants today.
Unless you’re Archie Miller.
