We scoffed at Purdue.
“Too good,” we said.
“Did you see them against Michigan State?”
“There’s no way they don’t figure this out.”
“The Texas loss was bad, but—oh, and the Nebraska one, but—well, yeah, you’re right, Illinois really stomped them, but—”
We laughed.
“So much hyperbole. And they just manhandled Indiana!”
“Oh, yeah, ‘cause beating Virginia by 30 doesn’t matter anymore.”
“Sure, and Purdue’s also gonna win the Sun Bowl next year.”
“They put up 100 on Iowa!”
We even appeared disinterested.
“Yeah, yeah, Purdue—but let’s talk about Arkansas.”
“Matt Painter’s not an NIT coach. Next question.”
But these things have a way of coming around. Underdogs bite. Dumpster fires grab attention. And our own jokes, when all’s said, can sometimes be on us.
As of this afternoon, Purdue is the NIT favorite.
Not just to make it.
To win it.
Our model has the Boilermakers well ahead of the field, with Minnesota drafting off them and then a big jump back to the real meat of the list. They’ve lost four straight, all to good teams, and they’ve looked decent enough doing it, reminding us all that this is what NIT Champions do: They find ways to make the NIT.
It’s been thirteen years since we last had a top-25 KenPom team in the NIT field. That year, Air Force walked in ranked 24th by our prince (Joe Lunardi is our king, but Prince Ken’s the heir), and while the Falcons didn’t win, they defended our country, so you shut your mouth (they did nearly win—lost by one to Clemson, who was ranked 27th). The point is, it’s been a while since we’ve seen a team this obviously good in the NIT. We don’t know what’ll happen. It’s possible it’ll exactly fulfill our expectations: total and complete carnage. But it’s also possible something will go awry for the clear favorite. Because this isn’t just any tournament. This is the NIT. And frankly, we just don’t know how much every team is gonna care.
