There are 100 Division I men’s basketball games today, and I find that number suspicious. Not only is it round and satisfying to look at, but it’s the exact number of Division I men’s basketball teams who will, combined, find themselves next Sunday among the blessed (32) and the damned (68). Thankfully, we’re only focused on 48 of those games. Auburn/Alabama? Get that shit out of my face.
For the discerning college basketball fan among us, ye who love the NIT, we’ve broken these 48 games down into five categories: Auto-bid play-ins, bubble bonanzas, bubble bashes, conference tournament teasers, and the rest. Hit the music, DJ.
*The theme from Hoosiers starts gently playing from a boombox in the corner*
Auto-Bid Play-Ins
| Team 1 | Team 2 | NIT Leverage |
| Radford | High Point | 0.74 |
| Belmont | Drake | 0.70 |
| Mercer | Chattanooga | 0.29 |
We’ve got three of these. High Point, Drake, and Chattanooga can each wrap up an NIT invitation today. None can fully doom themselves—these aren’t conference championships—but should they experience defeat, each can through that defeat taste the sweetest victory their souls have ever known. Nobody emulates Christ’s Passion like the NIT.
| Team | NIT % w Win | NIT % w Loss |
| High Point | 25% | 99% |
| Drake | 30% | 99% |
| Chattanooga | 69% | 99% |
| Belmont | 1% | 0% |
We’ll never write off Casey Alexander too early.
Bubble Bonanzas
| Team 1 | Team 2 | NIT Leverage |
| Oklahoma | Texas | 0.60 |
| Nevada | San Diego State | 0.59 |
| Air Force | Utah State | 0.46 |
| Duke | North Carolina | 0.41 |
| SMU | Florida State | 0.39 |
| Vanderbilt | Georgia | 0.30 |
| Mississippi State | Arkansas | 0.20 |
| Ohio State | Indiana | 0.18 |
On the upper bubble…*wolf whistle*
Get a load of these guys!
I regret to inform my fellow Austinites that I was unable to break into the football facilities and grab the Golden Hat. I don’t think the losing coach would’ve worn it anyway, so this is all probably for the best, but apologies. Yet another failure in my life.
| Team | NIT % w Win | NIT % w Loss |
| Utah State | 29% | 75% |
| North Carolina | 41% | 82% |
| Nevada | 69% | 29% |
| Texas | 26% | 62% |
| Florida State | 57% | 22% |
| Georgia | 1% | 26% |
| Oklahoma | 0% | 24% |
| Arkansas | 1% | 21% |
| San Diego State | 59% | 78% |
| Indiana | 3% | 21% |
| Vanderbilt | 0% | 6% |
| SMU | 83% | 88% |
| Ohio State | 0% | 0% |
Poor Ohio State. Even if they do lose, the Crown’s probably going to call. In five years, when the Buckeyes bolt for the SEC, you and I will know why.
Bubble Bashes
| Team 1 | Team 2 | NIT Leverage |
| Georgia Tech | Wake Forest | 0.40 |
| St. Bonaventure | Davidson | 0.40 |
| Kennesaw State | Jacksonville State | 0.36 |
| Virginia | Syracuse | 0.34 |
| Grand Canyon | Abilene Christian | 0.33 |
| Utah Valley | Tarleton | 0.27 |
| Cincinnati | Oklahoma State | 0.26 |
| TCU | Colorado | 0.25 |
| FIU | Middle Tennessee | 0.22 |
| Duquesne | Saint Louis | 0.17 |
| Loyola Chicago | UMass | 0.12 |
On the bottom bubble (different from a bubble bottom, different from a bubble bottom, different from a bubble bottom), the action is no less intense. Keep an eye on Utah Valley and Grand Canyon, where we don’t know what the WAC tiebreaker is. Whoever wins that league should be in line for an NIT automatic bid. Grand Canyon’s got an NIT at-large shot as well.
| Team | NIT % w Win | NIT % w Loss |
| St. Bonaventure | 58% | 19% |
| Jacksonville State | 37% | 1% |
| Virginia | 48% | 14% |
| Grand Canyon | 41% | 8% |
| Georgia Tech | 44% | 12% |
| Utah Valley | 71% | 44% |
| Oklahoma State | 40% | 15% |
| Middle Tennessee | 39% | 17% |
| Saint Louis | 20% | 4% |
| TCU | 50% | 65% |
| Loyola Chicago | 13% | 2% |
| Colorado | 15% | 4% |
| Wake Forest | 80% | 88% |
| Cincinnati | 0% | 1% |
| Syracuse | 0% | 0% |
| Davidson | 0% | 0% |
There are fractions of percentage points in there for Syracuse and Davidson. I’m sorry to tempt like this.
Conference Tournament Teasers
| Team 1 | Team 2 | NIT Leverage |
| Pepperdine | Oregon State | 0.46 |
| Valparaiso | Bradley | 0.39 |
| Marshall | Arkansas State | 0.09 |
| Loyola Marymount | Washington State | 0.07 |
| Furman | Samford | 0.03 |
This could be it for all five of the losers here. No one is assured of an NIT position. When people say conference tournaments are exciting, this is why.
| Team | NIT % w Win | NIT % w Loss |
| Oregon State | 77% | 31% |
| Bradley | 57% | 96% |
| Arkansas State | 18% | 9% |
| Washington State | 7% | 0% |
| Samford | 3% | 0% |
Bradley’s pretty safely in with a loss, but since they want the exempt bid, they’re better-served by losing. That way, they can make sure of Drake winning tomorrow themselves.
The Rest
| Team 1 | Team 2 | NIT Leverage |
| Utah | BYU | 0.17 |
| Texas Tech | Arizona State | 0.13 |
| UCF | West Virginia | 0.11 |
| Hawaii | Cal State Northridge | 0.09 |
| Penn State | Wisconsin | 0.09 |
| USC | UCLA | 0.09 |
| Georgetown | DePaul | 0.08 |
| Northwestern | Maryland | 0.08 |
| South Carolina | Tennessee | 0.07 |
| Saint Joseph’s | La Salle | 0.06 |
| Cal | Notre Dame | 0.06 |
| Liberty | Western Kentucky | 0.05 |
| Texas A&M | LSU | 0.04 |
| UC San Diego | UC Davis | 0.03 |
| Stanford | Louisville | 0.02 |
| UC Irvine | UC Santa Barbara | 0.02 |
| Boston College | Pitt | 0.02 |
| Yale | Brown | 0.02 |
| Providence | Xavier | 0.01 |
| Iowa State | Kansas State | 0.01 |
| UTEP | Louisiana Tech | 0.01 |
A real smorgasbord here. Teams with faint wisps of hope. Teams already probably in the NIT but playing for seeding. Teams wrestling the College Basketball Crown. We’ve got it all, folks. We’ve got it all.
| Team | NIT % w Win | NIT % w Loss |
| Utah | 18% | 35% |
| Arizona State | 10% | 23% |
| UCF | 55% | 64% |
| Cal State Northridge | 10% | 1% |
| Penn State | 20% | 29% |
| USC | 29% | 37% |
| Northwestern | 1% | 9% |
| Georgetown | 45% | 53% |
| South Carolina | 68% | 62% |
| Saint Joseph’s | 76% | 70% |
| Notre Dame | 6% | 1% |
| Liberty | 63% | 68% |
| LSU | 67% | 64% |
| UC San Diego | 43% | 46% |
| Stanford | 85% | 88% |
| UC Irvine | 68% | 70% |
| Pitt | 90% | 88% |
| Yale | 40% | 43% |
| West Virginia | 0% | 2% |
| Cal | 1% | 0% |
| Kansas State | 48% | 49% |
| Providence | 18% | 17% |
| Louisiana Tech | 1% | 0% |
| DePaul | 10% | 9% |
| Xavier | 0% | 1% |
What a list.
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We’ll be back tomorrow with a viewing guide more like those of the last few days. Also…Bubble Watch? We’ll do our best.
Good luck out there.
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