Party in the (Conference) USA: It’s Friday NITe

“Gettin’ biddy with it.”

We’ve got eleven teams locked in the field—the seven automatics, plus UNC, Michigan, New Mexico, and Liberty as at-large bids. That leaves 21 more spots for the taking. Here’s what’s going down today:

The Upper Bubble

• 12:30 PM EST: Florida Atlantic vs. Middle Tennessee State (CBSSN)
• 3:00 PM EST: North Texas vs. UAB (CBSSN)
• 9:00 PM EST: UCLA vs. Oregon (P12N)
• 9:30 PM EST: Virginia vs. Clemson (ESPN2)
• 9:30 PM EST: Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt (SECN)

North Texas vs. UAB is something of a play-in game, with the loser almost certainly headed to the NIT. If FAU loses, they’re in the mix, but we don’t expect to lock them up. Oregon might be able to survive a win but shouldn’t test it, and the same goes for Clemson and potentially Vanderbilt. These are the big ones on the top side.

The Lower Bubble

• 3:00 PM EST: Cincinnati vs. Temple (ESPN2)
• 9:00 PM EST: Tulane vs. Wichita State (ESPNU)
• 9:30 PM EST: San Diego State vs. San Jose State (CBSSN)

San Jose State’s the hot new thing, currently projecting as our second team out. That’s close enough that they could easily slide in, either to our projection or the actual field, even with a loss. If the loss is close, it’ll especially help, and a win of course would be a big, big deal, with bid thief ramifications as well.

Cincinnati’s in a good spot, but Temple wouldn’t be a good loss. Might be able to afford it, but would be foolish to test that theory. Tulane and Wichita are each a ways out of it right now. Our current thought is that they’d need to get to the AAC Championship to have a real chance, though if the bubble really opens up, we could maybe see Tulane with a blowout here. Worked for Saint Louis.

Dueling Bubbles

• 7:00 PM EST: Memphis vs. UCF (ESPNU)

We haven’t written off Memphis yet on the Upper Bubble, even if the odds are long. Don’t think they could play their way into our projection, but they could stay close enough for us to keep looking at them. On the Lower Bubble, UCF is our first team out entering today.

Automatic Watch

• 5:00 PM EST: Toledo vs. Ohio (CBSSN)
• 6:00 PM EST: Iona vs. Niagara (ESPNews)
• 6:00 PM EST: Howard vs. Maryland Eastern Shore (ESPN+)
• 9:00 PM EST: UC Irvine vs. Cal State Fullerton (ESPN+)
• 11:00 PM EST: Utah Valley vs. Southern Utah (ESPN+)

Toledo, Iona, Howard, Irvine, and Utah Valley are all into the NIT with a loss. With a win? One more chance tomorrow. These are all semifinals.

Bid Thief Watch

• 1:00 PM EST: Houston vs. East Carolina (ESPN2)
• 2:30 PM EST: Michigan State vs. Ohio State (BTN)
• 7:30 PM EST: Kent State vs. Akron (CBSSN)
• 9:00 PM EST: Sam Houston State vs. Grand Canyon (ESPN+)

In addition to the FAU game and the San Jose State game and a few others scattered around, the clear Bid Thief games are these four. Ohio State’s a long way away from being a big concern, but they’re on the radar to push everyone down a spot. If Houston goes down, the bid thief probability in the AAC shoots way the heck up. Kent State and Sam Houston State are trying to create a 2-bid MAC and WAC in the NIT. We’ll likely call Sam Houston State a lock if they lose. Fans of teams on the Lower Bubble really want Houston, Michigan State, Kent State, and SHSU to win.

Upper Bubble?

• 12:00 PM EST: Purdue vs. Rutgers (BTN)
• 1:00 PM EST: Alabama vs. Mississippi State (ESPN)
• 6:30 PM EST: Northwestern vs. Penn State (BTN)
• 11:30 PM EST: Arizona vs. Arizona State (ESPN)
• 12:00 AM EST: Boise State vs. Utah State (CBSSN)

We think all five of Rutgers, Mississippi State, Penn State, Arizona State, and Utah State will not be going to the NIT, but we aren’t sure enough to not list them here. Utah State’s especially strange this year. Unconventional team sheet.

Deep Cuts

• 8:00 PM EST: North Carolina Central vs. Norfolk State (ESPN+)
• 8:30 PM EST: Saint Peter’s vs. Marist (ESPNews)
• 11:30 PM EST: UC Santa Barbara vs. UC Riverside (ESPNU)

If Howard, Iona, and/or UC Irvine wins today, they’ll respectively play the NCCU/Norfolk winner, the SPC/Marist winner, and/or the UCSB/UCR winner tomorrow. Generally speaking, fans of teams on the Lower Bubble want the underdog to win, making it less likely for Howard/Iona/UCI to take an automatic bid. The underdogs here are Norfolk, Saint Peter’s, and Riverside.

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There’s a lot clarifying itself today. Things aren’t simple, but they’re getting more clear.