Our NHL Model is, at long last, live. You can check it out here. It’s something of a beta version of what will be next year’s model, but it’s out there.
We decided to launch the model, semi-unfinished and with just four to seven games left this season, for three reasons:
The first is that we thought it could still provide some content value, with the Stanley Cup Finals upon us.
The second is that we learn things from running models live, and as we try to expand the modeling portion of what we do, these next two or three weeks will provide some insights into what we can and can’t manage this fall with college football, soccer, and volleyball, just as building the darn thing provided us with a lot of insights in that realm.
The third is that we wanted to stake a little bit of a claim as an elo-based NHL Model. To be fully transparent with this third reason: We initially decided to build this model, straying from our sweet spot of college sports, because FiveThirtyEight doesn’t have an NHL model and we find their models helpful as casual fans of other sports, so we wanted one to exist in a way that’s convenient for us to access. With ESPN resuming some NHL coverage, though, and with FiveThirtyEight and ESPN both owned by ABC, we wouldn’t be surprised to see an NHL model out of FiveThirtyEight this fall, and we want to establish that while we’re copying them conceptually, we aren’t copying them in the details of how our particular professional hockey model works.
If you’re interested in how the model works, we have a post up on that topic. In the meantime, it exists, it’s live, and we hope you enjoy it.
